NSW Labor leader Chris Minns has slumped to his lowest level as preferred premier since winning government, while half of all voters are undecided about who they would want to lead the state.

At the same time, NSW Liberal Leader Mark Speakman has reached his highest popularity rating since he took over the leadership of the Coalition, rising 3 percentage points to 19 per cent.

The exclusive results in the Resolve Political Monitor coincide with the final sitting period of the year, which will see Speakman fighting to hold on to his job as some in the Liberals are convinced that a change in leadership is the only option to turn around consistently poor polling.

Speakman will also have to navigate a potential split with the NSW Nationals on energy policy, as the state arm of the party mulls whether to follow their federal colleagues and walk away from targets to reduce emissions by 2025.

The government, meanwhile, needs to pass its major planning laws and its controversial workers’ compensation bill, which has been stuck in a political impasse for six months.

The RPM survey reveals Minns has dropped 6 percentage points to 31 per cent as preferred premier. In the first poll after winning the 2023 election, Minns was on 42 per cent.

At the same stage of the electoral cycle in the last term, when Dominic Perrottet was premier and Minns the opposition leader, Minns’ preferred premier rating was 23 per cent. By February 2022, Minns had leapfrogged Perrottet with a rating of 32 per cent to Perrottet’s 29 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote has slipped 1 percentage point to 37 per cent while the Coalition remains on 28 per cent. The Greens are on 10 per cent while the independents have climbed from 11 per cent to 15 per cent.

Resolve director Jim Reed said his research suggested voters were frustrated with Minns and the Labor government.

“Minns still leads Speakman as preferred premier, but he’s down to his lowest rating since taking power. Voters are telling us that they’re becoming impatient for this first-term government to do something,” Reed said.

“They have cut ribbons on lots of infrastructure projects started under the Coalition, but voters struggle to name anything significant Minns has delivered in his own right.

“What’s been delivered on the cost of living, housing, health, schools?”

A senior Liberal MP, who asked to remain anonymous to speak freely, said the latest RPM data was unlikely to fast-track a leadership challenge in the next fortnight.

“This poll won’t change any votes in the party room – people who hate Speakman will still hate him, and those who support him will still support him,” the MP said.

Another senior Coalition MP, who is not permitted to speak publicly under party rules, said: “The right don’t have the numbers in the party room, the left do, so it is the left who are going to have to decide whether they want to stick with Speakman.”

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