If NSW swings to Dutton, it’s curtains for the state Liberal leader

The federal election will be a litmus test for the NSW Liberals and their brand of conservatism. If prime ministerial hopeful Peter Dutton manages to seize suburban seats on Sydney’s fringe and in the regions, the message to the state branch of the Liberals will be clear: right-wing populism, with a hint of Trumpism, is the future of the party. That will be disastrous for the moderate Liberals in NSW, and their state leader, Mark Speakman.

NSW Opposition Leader Mark Speakman and federal Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.Credit: Kate Geraghty, Alex Ellinghausen

However, if Dutton fails to snatch must-win seats such as Werriwa in Sydney’s south-west, the once-dominant moderate NSW Liberals will be buoyed. The federal takeover after the humiliating debacle of the failed local government nomination process will have been in vain; the moderates’ power will likely be restored and Speakman’s potential detractors will retreat. At least for now.

The key NSW battlegrounds for the Liberals in the May 3 federal election are not the party’s long-held heartland. Most of those seats – Wentworth, Mackellar and Warringah – are in the hands of teals, Bradfield is under threat from a teal and Bennelong is the state’s most marginal electorate and on a knife’s edge. Rather than inner metropolitan Sydney, the Liberals under Dutton see their path to victory in outer suburbia, where cars dominate and the cost of living is biting especially hard.

Twenty-five years ago, those voters may have been Howard’s battlers. In the 1996 election, John Howard took Macquarie, Macarthur and Lindsay thanks to those heavily mortgaged, socially conservative voters in the suburbs who turned against Labor. Howard’s battlers stayed with him for a decade. But demographics have changed.

Macarthur is now safe Labor, Lindsay is fairly safe Liberal and Macquarie swings. In 2025, Dutton has his own breed of voters he is wooing in areas that have been part of Sydney’s great urban sprawl. But his target voters are also in regions in the ultra-marginal South Coast seat of Gilmore (being contested by former NSW minister Andrew Constance), the Hunter seat of Paterson, and Robertson on the Central Coast. The geography of the Liberals’ hit list tells the story.

Speakman’s Sydney is vastly different to the one Dutton is courting. Aside from losing Pittwater to teal Jacqui Scruby in last year’s byelection, and longstanding independent Northern Beaches Mayor Michael Regan claiming Wakehurst at the 2023 election, the NSW Liberals still have a stranglehold on Sydney’s blueribbon north shore, as well as Vaucluse in the city’s east.

Politically, Speakman and Dutton are vastly different. Speakman is the classic moderate. When he was attorney-general in the state Liberal government, he championed progressive social issues, especially drug reform. The silk attempted unsuccessfully to introduce a drug-diversion scheme, by which people caught with small amounts of drugs would face fines rather than be arrested. It was far from the tough-on-crime approach adopted by former cop Peter Dutton. As state environment minister, too, Speakman stood in contrast to Dutton. He led NSW’s emissions target of net zero by 2050.

Despite the obvious differences, Speakman has been at pains to stay on message and not harm his federal colleague’s election chances. When Dutton revealed last month that he would hold a referendum to allow ministers to deport dual citizens convicted of crimes such as terrorism, Speakman was keen to toe the party line, or at least the federal leader’s line. Asked about it, he answered: “Generally, I support everything that Peter Dutton does.” Few people believed him.

The NSW moderates still command the party room in Macquarie Street, although the faction is significantly less disciplined than it was under powerbroker Matt Kean, who kept them in check for his mentor and former premier Gladys Berejiklian. Speakman, who has been opposition leader since the Coalition’s 2023 election loss, has been lacklustre but has not given his party room reason to consider a change. He is not well known, but no opposition leader is at this stage of an electoral cycle – and the latest Resolve Strategic polling puts the state Coalition ahead of Labor on primary votes.

Nonetheless, there are rivals in the Liberal party room who would relish the opportunity to take on the leadership. Manly MP and senior moderate James Griffin is one; right-wing Wahroonga MP Alister Henskens is another. At this point, however, there is no catalyst for either to make a move on Speakman. That could change with the federal election result.

If Dutton prevails, which would rely on electoral success in NSW, the moderate faction will be hugely damaged. Not only were moderate MPs cleared out of the federal party room in the teal tide of 2022, but the right wing of the party would claim new electoral territory and cement a new brand of conservatism.

Where would that leave NSW? Speakman’s only hope of survival, and the moderates’ best hope of rebuilding and reclaiming teal seats, is if Dutton’s strongman approach fails.

Alexandra Smith is the state political editor.