The teals stunned the nation in 2022. They could make or break the next government

They’re the seven women who took Australia by surprise in 2022 when they won or held formerly blue-ribbon Liberal seats in Melbourne, Sydney and Perth.

Now, the next election shapes as a test of whether the teal wave was a one-time phenomenon fuelled by dislike of former prime minister Scott Morrison, anger over a lack of integrity in politics and the desire for greater action on climate change – or whether their promise of a “new way” of doing things is here to stay.

Kate Chaney, Allegra Spender, Sophie Scamps, Zali Steggall, Monique Ryan, Zoe Daniel and Kylea Tink were elected with significant financial support from Climate 200.

The teal MPs, centre rows, in the House of Representatives earlier this month.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

They hold joint press conferences and share a range of characteristics, but – despite the federal opposition’s claims – they are not a political party, and there are real differences in style and substance.

All will run again, other than Tink, who must weigh her options after her seat was abolished in an electoral redistribution.

This time around, the twin unifying threads of integrity and anger at Morrison will not be there to boost their vote. Climate action remains a critical focus, with five of the seven (Daniel, Ryan, Spender, Tink and Steggall) nominating as a key policy a 75 per cent emissions reduction target by 2035, up from 43 per cent by 2030.

If re-elected, they will offer a more diverse range of policies – from tax system changes to housing policy.

If you had to sum up these seven MPs in one word, it would be “earnest”: about the need to improve the practice of politics, the urgent changes facing Australia and most of all, the potential benefits of a “balanced” parliament – they don’t like the term “hung”.

They’re also hypersensitive about their voting record. The manager of opposition business, Paul Fletcher, recently accused them of voting with the Greens at least 70 per cent of the time.

Five of the seven MPs (Chaney, Spender, Scamps, Steggall and Tink) did not provide records that showed how they voted on divisions, regardless of who moved the vote, and instead would only give statistics on how they voted depending on which party moved the motion – potentially because the latter showed them voting more often with the Coalition and less with the Greens. Ryan and Daniel provided both sets of data.

The teals argue they vote on legislation based on its merits, in line with their community’s values, and that how the Greens vote is irrelevant.

After interviewing all seven, we examine how often they’ve voted with the government on substantive legislation in their first two years, look at their achievements, and assess their chances at the next election.

Seat: Warringah (NSW), 7.24 per cent margin

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 67 per cent (figures accurate to May 30, 2024)

Steggall, formerly a Winter Olympian (Australia’s first individual medallist) and barrister, is the only member of the group elected in 2019. She claimed former prime minister Tony Abbott’s seat in 2019 and then in 2022 proved it was no fluke as she saw off controversial Liberal candidate Katherine Deves.

Steggall is likely to hold her seat – the Liberals have yet to choose an opponent.

Steggall still bristles at Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s decision to cut the number of advisers available to the crossbench and points out she has moved 20 amendments to legislation, more than some Liberal frontbenchers.

Climate change mitigation (“we haven’t fixed climate”) and the cost of living will be her priorities at the next election, and she is sharply critical of the impact of the government’s industrial relations changes on small businesses in her seat.

She doesn’t mind throwing an elbow, either – Steggall recently told Opposition Leader Peter Dutton in parliament to “stop being racist” after he said he wanted Australia to reject all migrants from Gaza.

Steggall won’t say who she will back in the event of a hung parliament but adds: “I’ll be true to the mandate I get from the people of Warringah … to me, it will be a question of who has a prima facie case of forming government, what the will of the Australian people looks like … does anyone have a clear mandate, how close is anyone to a clear mandate?”

Verdict: Likely Steggall victory

Seat: Goldstein (Victoria), 2.87 per cent margin

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 70 per cent

Daniel, a former ABC foreign correspondent, is a straight-shooter who has taken to the cut and thrust of parliamentary politics with aplomb.

ABC election analyst Antony Green estimates her margin has increased slightly to 3.1 per cent after a boundary redistribution, but she is facing high-profile former Liberal MP Tim Wilson in a difficult-to-predict contest.

Though Daniel has moved seamlessly from journalist to politician, Wilson is a formidable opponent who knows the bayside Melbourne seat well. He has not stopped working the seat since his election loss in 2022.

Daniel has worked to highlight the issue of sexual assault on university campuses and, like Sydney MP Spender, says she has sought to combat the rise of antisemitism in a seat with a significant Jewish population.

But her decision to sign a letter calling for funding to be restored to the UN Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees (UNRWA) angered some in the Jewish community and she has walked a delicate line between criticising Hamas’ “appalling and evil terrorist attack” while calling for a humanitarian ceasefire in Gaza.

Heading into the next election, Daniel says access to housing and mental health support, particularly for young people, will be major themes as well as “everything-on-the-table tax reform”, women’s safety and economic empowerment, and climate action.

She expresses disappointment in Albanese for failing to show “visionary leadership” and meet community expectations on issues such as banning gambling advertising, but also bemoans a lack of policy detail from Dutton and the Coalition.

Asked who she would support in the event of a “balanced” parliament, Daniel says: “It’s a question of who I think can deliver a vision that is in line with the vision of the community that elected me.”

Verdict: Too close to call

Seat: Kooyong (Victoria), 2.94 per cent margin

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 70 per cent

Ryan is a former head of neurology at the Royal Children’s Hospital Melbourne and claimed the highest-profile scalp of the 2022 election in former treasurer Josh Frydenberg.

A no-nonsense demeanour and plain-spoken approach cost her a high-profile chief of staff, but Ryan campaigned successfully to get the government to provide some HECS debt relief while sticking to themes important to her constituents, such as tougher climate change goals.

Ryan emphasises helping local constituents and holding community town hall meetings in her work.

She will campaign on the need to combat climate change and the rising cost of living, arguing the two go hand-in-glove.

“The price of electricity is determined by the most expensive input into the market, which is gas, which is less than 5 per cent of the electricity that you’re using. So we need to get off the gas and help people electrify their homes,” she says.

Like all the teals, she would welcome what she calls a “balanced” parliament and the bigger role it would hand the crossbench in shaping legislation.

She will only hint at who she would back if neither major party wins a majority.

“I would give confidence and supply to the leader of whichever party, whoever that might be, whichever party and whichever leader would commit to the things which are most in keeping, I guess, with the values and the things for which I’ve been elected,” she says.

Ryan faces hard-working Liberal candidate Amelia Hamer. According to the ABC’s Green, her margin has been reduced to about 1.8 per cent after a boundary redistribution.

Verdict: Leaning towards Ryan

Seat: Wentworth (NSW), 4.19 per cent margin

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 69 per cent

Spender is the daughter and granddaughter of prominent former Liberal MPs and her mother was the late Australian fashion icon Carla Zampatti. She was a management consultant before entering politics. More than any other teal, Spender is the one that got away – privately, Liberal MPs bemoan the fact that she is not sitting on the opposition benches.

For her part, Spender has no interest in the party her forebears served and is sharply critical of the “remarkable” decision by the Liberal National Party to run so few women in Queensland at the next election.

“I think that the Liberal party at the moment is a long way from the small-l Liberal, which I am. I am an economically conservative, socially liberal person through and through, my magazine of choice is The Economist,” she says.

In addition to climate change and integrity, Spender nominates the need for economic reform as a focus. She will soon release a green paper on tax reform that will identify major problems in the system such as Australia’s falling productivity and how to ensure younger people have the same economic opportunities as their parents.

Spender will face Liberal candidate Ro Knox in the contest for Wentworth. Although Knox’s CV is impressive, it’s hard to see Spender losing – particularly given Green estimates electoral boundary changes have increased her notional margin to 6.6 per cent.

Like Daniel, Spender drew criticism from the large Jewish community in her seat for signing a letter calling for UNRWA funding to be restored.

Spender says she is “genuinely open” to supporting either major party in the event of a hung parliament but, like many of the teals, adds a significant rider: “Let’s say [the Coalition’s] climate policy is not ambitious. Well, then, that means I couldn’t support them. Of course, they have to come to the party.”

Verdict: Likely Spender victory

Seat: Mackellar (NSW), 2.5 per cent margin

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 70 per cent

Scamps is the least likely politician of all the teal MPs. A GP before she entered parliament, Scamps’ major focus through her first term has been on reforms to ensure greater integrity in politics – in everything from gambling changes to greater transparency about how government appointments are made.

Like Steggall, Scamps does not yet have a Liberal opponent to square up against and electoral boundary changes in NSW have not affected her margin. The Liberals’ disorganisation at a branch level will surely aid Scamps’ quest to be re-elected.

Teal MP Sophie Scamps’ electoral chances in Mackellar have been helped by the Liberal Party’s local council bungle.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

Scamps highlights as a major accomplishment her win in securing changes to the rules around how members are appointed to the Administrative Review Tribunal, which made it mandatory for an independent selection panel to be involved.

Explaining why such a change matters, Scamps says: “If we build greater integrity, transparency and trust into our political system, then the good decisions flow from that.”

This time, the cost of living, intergenerational inequality in housing and the needs of small business will be a big focus, while climate and environment will also feature (though unlike most of the teals, she doesn’t have a 2035 target yet).

Asked if she would back the Coalition or Labor in the event of a hung parliament, Scamps says: “I don’t think you rule anything out. But it will be very clear what I stand for.”

Verdict: Likely Scamps victory

Seat: Curtin (Western Australia), 1.26 per cent margin

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 68 per cent

Chaney, like Spender, is from a Liberal family and won the Perth-based seat of Curtin with the support of small-l Liberals who were disappointed in Morrison but unable to bring themselves to vote for the Labor Party while the state was dominated by former premier Mark McGowan.

Electoral boundary changes in WA have not changed the margin for Curtin but Chaney admits to facing a formidable opponent in Liberal candidate Tom White, a dedicated campaigner with deep connections.

Chaney recently changed her position on Labor’s decision to ban live sheep exports, an issue that will not affect many of her constituents but which plays squarely into her state’s Perth-versus-Canberra mentality.

She puts her work as an MP into three categories – serving her constituents, affecting policy change through amending legislation and perhaps most importantly, through arguing for policies that broaden the terms of public debate.

Gambling and electoral reform are two examples of unfinished business in the current parliament and if she is returned, climate policy and tax reform will be a focus.

Chaney describes politics as “the strangest job in the world, in that you are expected to spend two years doing the job, and then a year just talking about doing the job and campaigning ... I’m really focused on still doing the job”.

And in the event of a hung parliament?

“I would listen to both sides on the key issues that my community says are important, and I would listen to what each potential government is saying and how credible I think those promises are,” she says.

Verdict: Likely Chaney defeat

Seat: North Sydney (NSW), 2.92 per cent

Voted with Labor on either the second or third reading of substantive legislation: 68 per cent

Tink has a mountain to climb if she wants to remain in politics after the next federal election as her seat has been abolished.

Tink isn’t ready to say what her next move will be, beyond taking time to regroup and talk to her family and local community, but says she feels she has more to do in politics.

Before entering politics, Tink was the chief executive of the McGrath Foundation breast cancer charity and then chief executive of the Camp Quality charity. Since arriving in Canberra, she’s campaigned for a human rights act, on climate change and against bullying in the parliament.

If Tink can find a path back into the next parliament, affordable housing and climate change action will form the centrepiece of her campaign.

In the event of a hung parliament, Tink says she would want “stability for our nation – so I would be prepared to provide confidence and supply” but would vote on other legislation on its merits. She will not say which major party she would support.

Before its abolition, Liberals believed North Sydney was the seat they were most likely to win back.

Tink is unlikely to stand in Scamps’ seat of Mackellar, which has taken in some of the soon-to–be-abolished North Sydney. Nearby Bradfield looks like a better fit, but teal candidate, Nicolette Boele, who ran Liberal frontbencher Paul Fletcher close last time, is already in the field.

Verdict: Unlikely to win, even if she finds a new seat

Cut through the noise of federal politics with news, views and expert analysis. Subscribers can sign up to our weekly Inside Politics newsletter.