The swing to the Coalition in Fadden is a win for Peter Dutton

A swing to the Liberals in the Fadden byelection is a win for Peter Dutton.

This says more about how low Dutton and the opposition are than it does about Prime Minister Anthony Albanese.

Tonight’s result say more about Peter Dutton than it does about Anthony Albanese.Credit: Sydney Morning Herald

The LNP on Saturday night retained the seat of Fadden, which was previously held by the scandal-ridden Stuart Robert on a safe 10.6 per cent margin, with counting suggesting a swing of more than 2 per cent to the opposition.

Because it was always clear that the LNP’s candidate Cameron Caldwell was going to win the seat, Labor engaged in a lot of expectation management in the days leading up to the poll.

“The average swing against the government in a federal byelection is about 4 per cent, so I think anything less than that for Peter Dutton would be embarrassing for him,” Treasurer Jim Chalmers said on Saturday morning.

There is one problem with trotting out that figure.

The average swing against first-term governments is a much smaller 1.7 per cent.

And as we saw in Aston in April, there is no reason why a government well ahead in the polls nationally – as Labor is – can’t get a swing to it.

Labor is further ahead in the polls now than it was at the time of last year’s election.

But the result in Fadden will turn out differently to Aston for a few reasons.

In March and April, Dutton couldn’t get any cut-through on cost of living. Now, voters are starting to ask more questions of Albanese over soaring interest rates.

Dutton also benefited from the fact that Fadden is in his backyard, and the LNP is a much better-run outfit than the dysfunctional Victorian Liberal Party. The LNP was also helped by the fact that Queensland Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk is on the nose with voters.

The low voter turnout, which is more likely to benefit the LNP, may also have been relevant.

The LNP threw a lot at the Fadden byelection, with party sources putting the amount at well over $600,000. Labor spent a fraction of that.

But Dutton also had some things working against him.

The release of the robo-debt royal commission’s final report, which found the former Coalition’s debt recovery scheme was neither fair nor legal, could not have come at a worse time a week before the poll.

Robert as government services minister oversaw the robo-debt scheme, which he shut down in November 2019 following advice from the solicitor-general, and it featured heavily in Labor’s campaign material over the past week.

Sources also say that Robert’s various scandals – which included the Rolex watch saga, the $38,000 home internet bill and the Synergy 360 lobbying company part-owned by his mate – had finally caught up with the close ally of former prime minister Scott Morrison.

Despite this, voters didn’t punish Caldwell.

This is positive for Dutton because it shows that voters are starting to dissociate the current opposition from the Morrison government and hear him out on cost of living.

But it is only a win for Dutton because he is coming off such a low base.

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