By Shane Wright
The Reserve Bank says it stands ready to respond to any economic turmoil caused by US President-elect Donald Trump’s ambitious tariff plans amid signs the domestic jobs market and wages growth are slowing.
A day after the Reserve Bank signalled interest rate cuts for hard-pressed borrowers next year, bank deputy governor Andrew Hauser urged calm about the potential impact of Trump’s agenda, including his threats of 10 to 20 per cent tariffs on all goods imported to the United States.
Economists have expressed concern about Donald Trump’s tariff and mass deportation plans.Credit: Bloomberg
There have been grave fears expressed about Trump’s plans, which also include the mass deportation of up to 8 million undocumented workers and possible interference in the independence of the US Federal Reserve.
Hauser, in an address in Sydney on Wednesday, said as Australia’s exports to the US were relatively small compared to other nations, new tariffs were unlikely to have a major direct inflationary impact.
He said the broader threat was posed by how American tariffs affected the global economy, particularly Australia’s major trading partners such as China.
“The impact on Australian inflation is ambiguous, in large part because it depends on a far wider set of considerations than the imposition of US tariffs alone,” he said.
“Given this uncertainty, it is important that we don’t prejudge the implication of tariffs for policy but monitor developments closely and stand ready to respond appropriately as the facts emerge.”
Hauser made the comments after the bank revealed a major change in language following its last board meeting of the year. Financial markets believe the bank will deliver back-to-back interest rate cuts from April while some economists expect the RBA to move at its February meeting.
A key concern for the bank has been the strength of the jobs market and its impact on wages growth.
Figures to be released on Thursday by online employment website company SEEK show a 1.1 per cent fall in job ads through November. Ads are down by 1.8 per cent over the past quarter and by 8.4 per cent over the year.
The state with the biggest fall in November was Western Australia, which was 3.2 per cent down to be 13.9 per cent lower than a year ago. The biggest annual drop was in Victoria, down by 15.4 per cent, but all states and territories have gone backwards.
The number of people applying for each job advertised jumped by 3.4 per cent through the month.
Separate figures from SEEK showed advertised salaries increased by 0.2 per cent in November. It was the second consecutive 0.2 per cent increase, which took the annual rate down to a three-year low of 3.5 per cent.
SEEK senior economist Blair Chapman said the number of people applying for jobs was at its highest level since the start of the pandemic.
“The slowdown in advertised salary growth likely reflects a steady easing in the labour market alongside weaker inflation growth, with a more balanced labour market putting less upward pressure on advertised salaries,” he said.
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