People are leaving Australia in the highest numbers since the pandemic

People are leaving Australia in the highest numbers since the pandemic, easing population growth and signalling the end of a two-year migrant boom overseen by the Albanese government despite its pledges to curb immigration.

International student numbers have also started stabilising after years of concern over surging arrivals, which will relieve Labor ministers who last year tried to limit overseas enrolments but were blocked by the Coalition and Greens in parliament.

But the green shoots for Labor will be countered by new challenges in other parts of the immigration system, such as a growing cohort of people on bridging visas and skilled graduates seeking longer stays.

ABS data shows 70,000 people left the country in the December quarter of 2024.Credit: Scott McNaughton

The government on Thursday welcomed fresh figures from the Australian Bureau of Statistics that showed 70,000 people left the country in the December quarter of last year – the highest departure figures since the March 2020, when 88,500 people left Australia as the pandemic struck.

It follows departure numbers of 65,000 in September 2024 and 63,000 in June 2024, which were already the highest since the end of 2020.

Until then, departure rates lagged, leading to record surges in the population. About 50,000 people left Australia each quarter in 2022-23, while more than triple that number arrived, hindering the Albanese government’s efforts to keep a lid on population growth and exposing Labor to political attack for losing control of the immigration system.

Former immigration department deputy secretary Abul Rizvi said the recent uptick in departure rates was good news for the government, albeit inevitable given how many people had arrived. “The peak has passed [and] policy has to some degree done what it’s supposed to do,” he said.

Further relief has come from a relative stall in student numbers. There were about 673,000 student visa holders in Australia in March this year, compared with 671,000 in March 2024, 583,000 in March 2023, and 336,844 in March 2022.

Rizvi said this signalled the post-pandemic student visa boom was also easing.

But he cautioned that its flow-on effects were still being felt: many former students have moved onto bridging visas, temporary graduate visas or skilled worker visas, which are visa classes that keep growing.

For example, the number of people on bridging visas rose from 286,000 in March 2023 to 380,000 in March 2024, while temporary graduates increased from 200,000 visa holders to 222,000 in that year.

This would continue to challenge the government by putting pressure on the permanent migration system if those people applied to stay longer, Rizvi said.

“The student wave has probably passed, but it’s still working through the system elsewhere. I still think they’re a long way from being out of the woods yet.”

The government is forecasting net overseas migration – the number of long-term arrivals minus departures – will fall from record highs of 536,000 in 2022-23 and 446,000 in 2023-24, to 335,000 in 2024-25, before landing at 260,000 in 2025-26.

Rizvi said he doubted the government would reach its targets, which it has overshot every year. Even if departures picked up pace, Rizvi predicted they would still fall short of Treasury’s expectations because Australia’s strong labour market meant migrants wanted to extend their stays to work.

Still, overall population growth in December 2024 has slowed to the lowest rate since June 2022, at 1.65 per cent. Net overseas migration remained the biggest driver of population growth across the country last year, accounting for most growth across all states and territories.

All states and territories expanded populations, with Western Australia recording the biggest leap in annual population growth at 2.4 per cent, followed by Queensland and Victoria at 1.9 per cent each.

The country’s most populous states continued to lose more residents to other states than they took in. Nearly 31,000 people left NSW and more than 21,000 left Victoria in the final three months of last year. Queensland and Western Australia were the only states to record an increase in population from interstate migration – net increases of 7600 and 2943 respectively.

Demographer Mark McCrindle said better housing affordability in states such as Queensland and Western Australia was attracting more residents, while Rizvi noted the relative strength of their economies in recent years.

Births continued to outnumber deaths across all states and territories, with Victoria posting the biggest natural increase in population despite NSW recording the highest number of births.

McCrindle said the national birth rate continued to decline as young couples and families were increasingly priced out of homes and delayed starting families. At the same time, he said an ageing population and a “post-COVID effect” led to a pick-up in the number of deaths.

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