Liberals’ losses could limit party to just five of Sydney’s 29 electorates

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The Liberal Party could be reduced to just five of Sydney’s 29 electorates after Labor decisively swept back to power in Saturday’s federal election.

The Liberals are projected to lose the southern Sydney seat of Hughes to Labor and the north shore electorate of Bradfield to the teal independent Nicolette Boele. The Liberals were also projected to lose the southern Sydney electorate of Banks – held by Coalition frontbencher David Coleman – to Labor.

Nicolette Boele speaks at her election party in Artarmon last night.Credit: Wolter Peeters

The Nationals also failed to regain the central NSW seat of Calare, which has been won by the former National-turned-independent Andrew Gee.

Labor’s two-party preferred vote in NSW rose 4 points compared to the last election, to 56 per cent, allowing the party to hold on to all its seats in the state.

Labor also remains in contention to win the western Sydney electorate of Fowler, where the independent MP Dai Le is marginally ahead of Labor challenger Tu Le.

The Coalition’s primary vote in NSW slumped by 5 percentage points to just 31 per cent.

Sydney’s electoral map has been transformed during the past decade. When Tony Abbott led the Coalition to power in 2013, the Liberal Party held more than half the federal seats in Greater Sydney. After this election, that share is set to fall below a quarter.

A key reason for that shift has been the rise of teal independents, and the political footprint of that group grew in the 2025 election.

The Herald’s election predictor on Saturday night called the seat of Bradfield for Boele.

All three of Sydney’s incumbent teal MPs have consolidated their electoral position. In the high-profile electorate of Wentworth, Allegra Spender gained a double-digit swing and was set to have a two-candidate preferred vote over 60 per cent.

Zali Steggall, the teal MP in Warringah on Sydney’s northern beaches, comfortably held her seat, as did Sophie Scamps in the electorate of Mackellar.

There were 5.7 million NSW voters on the electoral roll for Saturday’s federal election, which is a little over 31 per cent of the national total. However, the election commission data shows more than 40 per cent of those enrolled nationally cast a pre-poll or postal vote.

Most electorates in NSW were contested under new boundaries on Saturday following a sweeping redistribution last year that cut the number of seats in the state from 47 to 46.

Federal Labor candidate for the seat of Hughes, David Moncrieff, was an unexpected victor.Credit: Facebook

The overhaul redrew Sydney’s electoral map by abolishing the electorate of North Sydney, which had been contested since the very first federal ballot in 1901.

Former Liberal state minister Andrew Constance failed to topple Labor’s Fiona Phillips in the tightly contested electorate of Gilmore on the NSW South Coast.

Labor’s Jerome Laxale also held the ultra-marginal seat of Bennelong after a hard-fought campaign.

NSW has more seats in federal parliament than any other state and was considered crucial for the electoral prospects of Opposition Leader Peter Dutton.

Labor went into the 2025 election holding 15 federal seats on a margin of 5 per cent or less, with a third of those in NSW.

A strong result in NSW was needed for the Coalition to have any chance of a surprise election victory.

The previous two occasions the Coalition won federal elections from opposition – in 1996 and 2013 – the Liberal Party won a clutch of outer suburban ALP seats in Sydney’s west and on the central coast. John Howard’s strong showing in western Sydney in 1996 gave rise to the “Howard battler” voter tag.

But Peter Dutton’s pitch failed to win over voters in western Sydney and other outer urban areas.

Labor’s strong showing means a swag of marginal ALP seats have now shifted into the safe category.

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