Dutton was never a Trump clone. But he fell for the trap of MAGA-style politics

Anthony Albanese has two cyclones to thank for his historic trouncing of the Coalition.

Cyclone Alfred’s arrival off the Queensland coast delayed plans for an April election and allowed Labor to use the budget to launch into the election campaign. Even more important was the hurricane-like return of Donald Trump to the White House.

Cyclone Donald made landfall in Canada last week, delivering the centre-left Liberal Party a fourth-term victory that seemed impossible at the start of this year. Then he crashed through Australia’s electoral map, demolishing the Coalition’s hopes of victory. The parallels between the two countries, both close American allies, are unmistakable. Canadian Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre lost not just the election but his own seat, as did Peter Dutton.

Local factors at play in this election – Dutton’s woeful campaign, Albanese’s astuteness, interest rates beginning to fall – were all crucial. But around the world, Albanese’s victory will be interpreted as a repudiation of Trumpism and the latest sign of a revival of social democratic politics.

Trump’s radical and in many ways frightening return to office has breathed new life into centre-left parties.

The turnaround from the start of this year has been rapid and remarkable. As Trump’s second inauguration approached on January 20, centre-left parties were grasping for relevance. In an era of high inflation, incumbency had become a curse and left-wing governments were in an especially grim position. Conservative populism was in the ascendancy. Canada’s progressive prince, Justin Trudeau, announced his retirement in January as a beleaguered, unpopular figure. Labor was falling behind the Coalition in the polls, raising the likelihood of a Dutton prime ministership.

“Social democratic parties across the world are in disarray,” Emma Dawson, head of the progressive Per Capita think tank, said in January. Public intellectual Clive Hamilton, who founded the left-wing Australia Institute, argued, “there is clearly something profound going on” in global politics. “There’s no doubt that social democratic parties are struggling to sustain their votes,” he said.

Indeed, something profound is happening in global politics, but the opposite of what seemed to be the case just a few months ago. Trump’s radical and in many ways frightening return to office has breathed new life into centre-left parties and laid a booby trap for conservative leaders. Dutton was never a Trump clone, and notably called him out for berating Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. But he dabbled in MAGA-style politics by appointing Jacinta Price to an Elon Musk-style government efficiency role, and praised Trump as shrewd and a “big thinker” when he proposed his bizarre plan to turn Gaza into the “Riviera of the Middle East”.

Even before any votes had been counted on Saturday night, Liberal frontbencher James Paterson was singling out the Trump factor as a decisive reason for the Coalition’s loss. “I think it has been significant,” Paterson said of Trump’s electoral impact. Of the temptation to echo Trump-style politics, Liberal National senator James McGrath warned late on Saturday night: “We must resist that path.”

For Australians, Trump’s first presidency was largely a soap opera playing out on the other side of the Pacific Ocean. It’s different this time around. Trump’s refusal to grant Australia an exemption on steel and aluminium tariffs had a marginal economic impact but a profound symbolic one. His sweeping “Liberation Day” tariffs unleashed global economic mayhem and devastated Australians’ superannuation balances. Trump wasn’t as hostile to Australia as Canada, which he wants to annex and turn into the 51st state, but he is still widely perceived as a menacing figure.

By April, the Resolve poll for this masthead showed 60 per cent of Australians believed Trump’s election victory was bad for Australia, up from 40 per cent in November. The same poll showed one-third of Australians said they were less likely to vote for Dutton because of Trump. Even in socially conservative parts of the country like NSW’s Hunter Valley, voters brought up their fears about Trump unprompted in conversations with candidates and journalists.

Albanese, cleverly, rarely invoked Trump’s name but weaponised his presidency by accusing Dutton of wanting to take Australia down an American-style path on healthcare and wages. With uncertainty roiling the globe, he presented Labor as a beacon of stability and even kindness – a word not associated with Trump’s bullying and bluster. The contrast was largely implicit but impossible to miss.

Albanese, who has yet to meet Trump, can arrive in Washington in the coming weeks as a resounding victor. Meanwhile, his conservative opponents are left to sort through the wreckage of defeat, searching for a way to detach themselves from the toxicity of Trumpism.

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