Dutton resorts to red meat, but the Liberal base won’t decide this election

Peter Dutton dropped a truth bomb on Thursday morning when he returned to his home turf in Brisbane and sought to remind Australians that the election is all about the pressure on households from the cost of living.

“This election, really, is a referendum not about the election campaign but about the last three years of government,” he said. “Are you better off today than you were three years ago?”

Peter Dutton sings the national anthem with members of the Salvation Army at Club Pine Rivers in his electorate of Dickson on Thursday. Credit: James Brickwood

This is correct, of course. And also revealing. It is obvious that Dutton does not want the election result to be about the campaign – because his campaign has been so poor. How poor? “Atrocious,” says one Liberal. But it is also true that many Australians will look past the daily campaign when they cast their ballots – and some will blame Labor for their genuine financial pain.

Anthony Albanese conveys more confidence by the day, but he had to hedge this week on a central question at the National Press Club: are Australians better off now than they were before he was elected? The prime minister had an answer – mostly about his arguments with Dutton – but it lacked a simple word: yes. Albanese cannot claim voters are better off because that would be the biggest lie of the campaign.

So who has won the contest where it matters most? Dutton spent years galvanising the grievances of Australians who could see prices rising at their local supermarkets, and he turned their complaints into a crusade. It worked. The opposition leader gained ground all the way into the first weeks of this year.

Now, at the very time he needs to close the deal with wavering voters, Dutton falters. He had the complaint, but not the solution. Two days ago, the Resolve Political Monitor in this masthead showed that Labor had closed most of the gap against the Coalition when voters were asked to name the side that would do the best job at lowering the cost of living.

Even worse for Dutton was the finding in the Newspoll last week on the best side to keep taxes low – a totemic question for Liberals and Nationals who believe they always stand for a lower tax burden. The poll found that voters favoured Labor by 33 to 26 per cent. It is an astonishing twist that spells real danger for Dutton.

Long before this campaign began, the Labor team knew the election was not just about the past three years but about the “forward offer” for the years ahead. That’s why Albanese promised a 20 per cent cut to student fees last November, more spending on childcare in December, an $8.5 billion boost for Medicare in February and then an energy bill subsidy in March.

Dutton and his team waited too long to replace the gripes about the past with a pitch for the future. Now the recriminations are underway over how they got it so wrong. “They didn’t do the work,” says one Liberal. The cut to fuel excise may rescue key seats, but the big promise on income tax, worth $1200 for one year only, was finalised at the very last minute.

The spendathons on both sides will leave the next generation to pick up the tab unless the next federal cabinet, whoever is in it, has the courage to scale back spending. At this stage, however, all the signs suggest that Albanese has outplayed Dutton at pouring taxpayer funds into the services people value.

Primary school students mob the PM in Perth on Thursday.Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

A defeat for Dutton will turn the rumblings about his team into an avalanche of anger. The shadow treasurer, Angus Taylor, is a prime target. “He has been terrible,” says one Liberal. Jane Hume, the finance spokeswoman, is blamed for launching the complaints about working from home – although Dutton led this crusade until it backfired.

When the time came for Taylor and Hume to release their policy costings, they hardly seemed eager to gain attention. The documents were released at 2.30pm on the Thursday before the election, no better than Labor three years ago, and confirmed the Coalition cuts to the public service without any other big shift in fiscal policy. The deficit would be $5.6 billion deeper in the year ahead, mostly due to the cut to fuel excise. The cuts to foreign aid, and the tax on legalised vapes, should have been revealed to voters earlier. But the Coalition never seemed to have the courage of its convictions at this election.

The final week of the campaign has put the malaise on display. Dutton has made two visits to teal seats – Mackellar on Monday night, and Kooyong on Wednesday night – but has done so to rally the Liberal faithful rather than mix with the public. He has spent more time preaching to the converted on Sky News to shore up conservatives.

The priority for Dutton has been to offer red meat to the base. With his decision to fuel a culture war over the Welcome to Country, the opposition leader stayed true to his principles and probably gained nods of agreement from some Australians. But he already has those votes. He stirred up a distraction when his biggest challenge is to win the argument on the cost of living.

Peter Dutton’s biggest challenge is to win the argument on the cost of living. Pictured here at the Nowra Farmers Market in the electorate of Gilmore, with candidate Andrew Constance. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

The priority for Albanese has been to promise blue sky for the battlers. The prime minister is clearly on the offensive in the final week and is constantly trying to project energy and optimism with his visits to shopping precincts. Dutton and his team waited too long to replace the gripes about the past with a pitch for the future. This may not work, but he is clearly on the hunt for a majority because his team knows it is within reach.

Dutton talks of victory, but he acts as if he needs to rally the base and save the furniture. Albanese talks about climbing a mountain, but he acts as if he is already near the summit. Labor insiders expect to win some seats and lose some seats: the outcome of this election could be a “churn” of votes as some Australians swing to the Liberals out of anger over the cost of living, while others switch to Labor because they feel it has the better offer.

The net result might even be the status quo. Everything depends on how many Australians heed the complaints from Dutton, and how many believe the confidence from Albanese.

David Crowe is chief political correspondent for The Sydney Morning Herald and The Age.

Get a weekly wrap of views that will challenge, champion and inform your own. Sign up for our Opinion newsletter.