Between Xi and Trump, can PM afford to be ‘relaxed and comfortable’?

Anthony Albanese will definitely meet Xi Jinping on Chinese soil in 11 or 12 days’ time before he meets Donald Trump in India or somewhere (anywhere?) else on the planet. The fact of the Xi meeting has not yet been announced – it’s officially only at the “expected” stage – but this column has confirmed the prime minister’s July 12-18 trip includes a locked-in meeting with the Chinese president.

Illustration by Simon LetchCredit:

For politicians and commentators caught up in the doom-loop of the Trump-meeting-industrial-complex, this will be grounds for weeks of analysis in the lead-up to and following the Xi meeting, all of which will be rehashed ahead of Albanese’s inevitable first meeting with Trump.

Does this mean Albanese is soft on the Chinese president? Too accommodating? That he could have tried harder to meet the US president sooner, for example, at NATO in Holland, just a few days after he was denied that encounter at the G7 summit in Canada? Does it mean (gulp) that he isn’t taking the US-Australia relationship seriously enough?

Of course not. But expect all of this and more to be ventilated in weeks and months ahead.

The truth is more prosaic, which is exactly as the prime minister prefers it. Albanese, like former prime minister John Howard, won’t be hurried or panicked into action. Albanese, who is not one to shy away from comparisons to Howard, wants Australians to be relaxed and comfortable.

Albanese has met Xi once before whereas he has been to the US five times since he was elected prime minister, meeting Joe Biden more than once, and as he has told colleagues, journalists and Australians, he is relaxed about when exactly the first Trump sit-down will take place.

All in good time? Anthony Albanese has yet to meet the US President Donald Trump. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen, AP

Since his trip to China nearly two years ago, when Albanese waved lobsters around with Trade Minister Don Farrell, close to $20 billion in trade with China has been restored. Australian exporters have also diversified their export markets. These are both good for Australia’s economy.

Of course, Albanese has to say that he’s relaxed about the Trump meeting because no prime minister wants to look or sound desperate and dateless. Appearing so would only hand the US president leverage.

If you listened to opposition defence spokesman Angus Taylor this week about it being 239 days since Trump was elected – and still no meeting! – you’d think not only was AUKUS toast but the ANZUS treaty, signed way back in 1951, along with it. Taylor has carried on since May 3 as if he is blissfully unaware of the fact that the election reduced the opposition to just 43 seats in the lower house – fewer than the 49 MPs Labor had after Howard’s 1996 landslide.

When parliament finally resumes on July 22 and some Labor MPs have to sit on the opposition benches (because of the size of Albanese’s majority), Taylor and some fellow travellers might finally take a breath and confront the scale of Australians’ verdict.

Is there actually any doubt that a Trump meeting will happen at some point in the next few months? No. But Taylor and other members of the opposition, such as trade spokesman Kevin Hogan, are sounding the alarm because of AUKUS and tariffs. Hogan toughened his language this week on the urgency of a Trump meeting. Uncertainty over AUKUS is real, given the US administration’s review of the deal, under which Australia would buy nuclear-powered submarines.

The imposition of 10 per cent tariffs on Australian exports, and the looming re-imposition (after a pause) of 50 per cent tariffs on Australian steel and aluminium exports, is a genuine concern. Though the tone and pitch may be wrong, it is reasonable for the opposition to question whether Albanese’s current approach to Trump is sufficient.

Will the US administration be wowed by Albanese meeting Xi? Will it want to hear from Albanese, as the leader of a G20 power? Or will it view the Albanese-Xi meeting as a black mark, some sort of snub, a sign that the prime minister has his priorities wrong?

The likelihood is that Trump, who sees China as America’s primary geopolitical and economic rival, will want to know what Albanese and Xi discussed. And he will want to glean from Albanese what he can about Xi’s view of the world.

It’s worth noting how Albanese’s approach to the on-again-off-again meeting with the US president signposts how he plans to govern in the term ahead, with an expanded caucus, a potentially more pliable Senate, and at least as much personal authority as Howard had in 1996. This is a stubborn prime minister who does not want to be rushed.

Over and over again, he tells colleagues his approach this term, as it was last term, is to be calm, methodical and orderly. He will not be spooked by the 24-hour news cycle, he will be consistent, he will explain to the Australian people what he plans to do and then do it, but no more.

During the last term, Albanese’s methodical approach meant that, at times, his government looked slow and reactive. Those hoping that a bold, reforming PM is about to emerge will be disappointed.

But Albanese’s instinct to slow things down is better suited to his improved position in parliament. He will wear the inevitable, occasional outbreak of dissent, knowing that he governs from a position of strength, backed by a majority Left-faction caucus (for the first time in about five decades), and knowing he has no clear successor, only a coterie of jostling and ambitious ministers.

That majority Left faction in caucus will probably push Albanese to go further than his instincts might allow for, such as on pushing Australia to adopt a more ambitious 2035 emissions-reduction target, or on raising the rate of unemployment payments. And there are more than a few members of Albanese’s own faction, and of the Right faction too, who are not exactly big fans of the US president and are quite fine with their man not rushing to embrace him.

But there is a difference between being chummy with the current occupant of the Oval Office and being a close ally of the United States, as the prime minister knows.

If the US review of the AUKUS deal suggests, for example, that the sale of Virginia-class subs to Australia should be delayed or cancelled, then all hell could break loose politically for Albanese and his “all in due course” approach to Trump would be judged a failure. His decision not to head to the NATO meeting last week, for example, would be deemed a mistake, and the timing of his trip to Beijing would be questioned.

For a self-styled left-wing John Howard, that’s quite a risk to take.

James Massola is chief political commentator.