WA’s population is booming, but it’s not thanks to our birth rate

Western Australia may have grown by 89,000 residents over the past year – but without immigration, population growth would be at a crawl.

And bringing in workers from overseas to fill roles in traditionally male-dominated industries such as construction and mining may be behind a widening gender gap, with there currently about 12,434 more men than women in WA.

Australia’s population grew by 2.3 per cent to surpass 27 million people in March 2024, according to the latest figures released on Thursday by the Australian Bureau of Statistics.

WA’s population increase topped all other states – up 3.1 per cent to 2,951,600 – followed by Victoria which grew by 2.7 per cent, and Queensland, which grew by 2.5 per cent.

But WA’s population increase is strongly attributed to immigration, with statistics showing a severe decline in our “natural” growth.

Natural growth – the number of babies born less the numbers of deaths – saw the state population increase by 14,084 in 2023-24.

Interstate immigration contributed 10,039 people and overseas immigration 64,902.

Ten years ago, natural growth increased the population by 21,452, but by 2017-18 that number dropped to 19,851.

The sharpest decline came between 2021-22 and 2022-23, when natural growth dropped by 3763 to 14,113.

University of Western Australia social demographer Amanda Davies said natural growth decline in the COVID years had been expected, but its continued decline post-pandemic was concerning.

“I found [the declining growth rate] surprising in a pure demographic sense, but in a human sense looking at the anecdotal evidence and the stories of the pain people are facing, I don’t find it surprising – I find it sad,” she said.

“That really sticks to that cost of living pressure and people either delaying having children or having smaller families.

“The fact that there has been eight successive quarters of lower than expected children being born means it’s not an anomaly, it’s a trend.”

The statistics also show a returning trend in WA’s gender gap, with the number of men in the state slowly outgrowing the number of women.

In 2020, men only outnumbered women by 1801, but in the year to March 2024, that number had grown to 12,434.

“That increase is related to the migrant intake that we’re attracting … people are moving here for employment, and there’s a dominance of employment in traditional male sectors, as well as perhaps hiring practices,” Davies said.

“We can actually see that playing out in the demographics when you have large construction phases in mining sectors, you have that imbalance creeping in.”

However, the gap will most likely rebalance itself as it has in previous years, Davies said.

Overall, Australia’s population grew by 615,300 people with net overseas migration driving 83 per cent of the growth, while natural growth made up 17 per cent.

Annual net overseas migration in the year to March 2024 was 509,800 people, down from a peak of 559,900 in September 2023.

Natural increase was 105,500 people in the year ending March 2024, made up of 289,700 births and 184,200 deaths registered in Australia.

KPMG urban economist Terry Rawnsley said natural increase rate across Australia remained close to record highs with 105,400 over the past year.

But despite this, the number of births has stayed relatively low at 289,700, while deaths are on an upward trend, reaching 184,100.

“The rise in deaths is largely due to two factors, the ongoing effects of COVID-19 and the nation’s ageing population,” he said.

“While COVID-19 is no longer in the spotlight, it is still in the community and having a significant impact on death rates, particularly in more vulnerable older demographics.”

Institute of Public Affairs senior fellow Kevin You believed the latest data showed the nation’s migration intake remained out-of-control.

“The current unplanned, record migration intake is placing immense pressure on housing and infrastructure, has not solved our worker shortage crisis, and is leaving Australians worse off,” he said.

“With the number of new dwelling approvals dramatically lower than the number of new arrivals, the great Australian dream of homeownership is being destroyed for the next generation of Australians and new arrivals alike.”

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