The race for Werribee: How the west will be won (or lost)

On a bad day, it takes Ashok Kok almost two hours to drive from his home in Manor Lakes, on Melbourne’s western fringe, to his office in Southbank.

Peeling off the Princes Freeway at Werribee’s western exit when he returns home in the evening involves joining a queue of cars, often more than a kilometre long, precariously sitting in the emergency lane as heavy trucks charge past.

Ashok Kok with wife Monika and five-year-old daughter Eva outside their Manor Lakes home.Credit: Penny Stephens

“It’s so annoying, we already work 38 hours in our week and we’re wasting so much time in traffic,” Kok says.

Like many of his neighbours, he has spent years feverishly awaiting planned state government road upgrades that would slash his commute – and as of last week, the state and federal government have agreed to a $333.5 million road project that should ease his journey.

The timing is no coincidence. Premier Jacinta Allan’s government faces its first major electoral test with a February 8 byelection in the seat of Werribee, long part of traditional Labor heartland. The byelection was triggered by the resignation of treasurer Tim Pallas, who held the seat for 18 years.

Werribee itself has been an ALP stronghold since 1979, but the byelection comes as new statewide polling shows Victorians’ support for Labor – which has governed the state since 2014 – has collapsed to historic lows.

Analysts have been predicting that the west will swing to the Liberals at future elections as the region’s population boom brings in new voters who are less loyal to Labor.

This makes the race for Werribee an equally important test of Brad Battin’s new stewardship of the Victorian Liberals and his pitch to win over outer-suburban voters. Failing to capture a swing would be dire for the party’s confidence.

The Werribee district, which takes in Wyndham Vale and spreads as far west as Little River, was home to almost 91,000 people at the 2021 census, a jump of nearly 30 per cent from five years earlier.

The growth is only going to intensify, with the Labor government setting Wyndham City Council – which includes the Werribee state electorate – a target of building an extra 120,000 homes by 2051, an increase of 110 per cent on 2023 levels.

The edge of a Manor Lakes housing estate.Credit: Jason South

Kok bought his three-bedroom home for $450,000 in one of the many new estates that are sprouting where vast paddocks once sat. From his doorstep, he can see grassland at either end of his street.

He and wife Monika – who have been citizens since 2020 – were attracted by the affordability, and while they love the area, they lament the shortage of secondary schools, buses and community facilities.

Kok’s biggest bugbear has been seeing the state government splash out on Big Build projects such as the Suburban Rail Loop in other parts of Melbourne, while old single-lane roads in the outer west struggle to cope with a swelling, car-reliant population.

A growing queue of cars to leave the Princes Freeway at Werribee’s western exit.Credit: Jason South

Kok welcomes last week’s government pledge to upgrade the notorious Princes Freeway interchange, but he feels cautious. He points to promises that have come and gone: delays on new train stations and electrified tracks, and shelved plans for a “super-city” with 58,000 jobs on 775 hectares of state-owned farmland at East Werribee.

“Given the history of grand announcements that fail to materialise, it’s crucial for the government to rebuild trust by delivering on these commitments. Our community deserves real progress, not just rhetoric,” he says.

Teacher and mother of two Sarah Wendelborn has lived most of her life in Werribee and comes from a family of rusted-on Labor voters.

Two years ago, she moved to the new suburb of Mambourin and found growing frustration: homes and cars were being broken into, she struggled to find a GP, she was constantly in traffic jams, and she was unable to get her daughter into the local kinder.

The family pulled the pin last month and moved to Moriac, south-west of Geelong.

Today, her commute to work in Hoppers Crossing takes as long as it did when she lived just six kilometres away.

“We’d had enough. Once crime started escalating, we had to choose. It wasn’t where I wanted my kids to grow up,” she says.

Wendelborn will be voting next week and thinks it’s time for the seat to change hands.

“In an ideal world, it would not be a safe Labor seat any more. Why would they want to do anything for Werribee when they can do nothing and still get elected?”

Emil Klobas, a Werribee resident of 28 years, is sipping coffee with his elderly father outside on Werribee’s main shopping strip, Watton Street.

The tree-lined avenue is lined with buildings no taller than two storeys and bustles with eateries where people from across the outer west converge, but there are also signs of the ongoing pain of the cost-of-living crisis.

Homeless and disability support services are dotted along the street. Two doors from the cafe where Klobas sits, families stream out of a Uniting branch with food bags.

Emil Klobas sits on Watton Street.Credit: Jason South

Klobas says he isn’t happy with any of the candidates. He is angered by overpopulation and the Labor government’s budget crisis, with net debt forecast to pass $187.8 billion by 2028.

“The politicians aren’t doing anything for the Werribee people,” Klobas says.

“You can’t get anywhere, there’s road congestion everywhere … and the amount of crime that’s going on is just ridiculous.”

According to police data, the number of criminal incidents in the municipality of Wyndham in the year ending September 2024 was up 13.3 per cent on the previous year. Theft and car stealing were the most common offences.

It’s this that Tim Butler, the chief executive of local news platform Wyndham TV, believes will be an election decider. There have been several high-profile incidents, including a father of two who was found dead in a playground in Mambourin and the stabbing death of a 24-year-old in Wyndham Vale.

“People are scared,” Butler says. “We’re seeing a lot more comments coming through online that they’re fed up with weak bail laws and just want to get rid of Labor. That seems to be a lot stronger this year… whether that transfers into votes, who knows.”

Anthony Evans is newer to the area. He moved from Reservoir to Wyndham Vale with his wife and 15-month-old son a year ago. Evans will back Labor next week.

“The west is lagging behind the east in terms of infrastructure development … but I think it’s coming along as well.”

Wyndham City Council’s population of about 300,000 is projected to reach 500,000 by 2041, with a lot of heavy lifting to take place in the westernmost Werribee district, where there is ample undeveloped land.

Anthony Evans with son Abram, photographed near Watton Street sculptures.Credit: Jason South

Mayor Mia Shaw, who ran as a Liberal candidate at the 2022 state election, welcomed the Allan government’s commitment to pay for a new Princes Freeway interchange, which will eventually connect to a new Ison Road overpass and extension being completed next year.

But Shaw said the council had been lobbying for a new interchange since 2019 and she warned that it was “not a silver bullet”.

“Our community is growing at such a rapid rate that it feels like we are constantly playing catch-up,” Shaw said.

She called for improved bus services and for the full Western Rail Plan to be realised, which was announced ahead of the 2018 state election before successive budget cuts. The plan involved rail electrification, new train stations and a link between the Werribee and Wyndham Vale lines.

Ison Road will become a major thoroughfare connecting suburbs, but for now remains unfinished.Credit: Jason South

“We are the fastest-growing municipality in the country and our residents are facing daily struggles with congested roads, limited public transport options, and the need to commute long distances for work,” she said.

“Schools, healthcare facilities, and recreational spaces are stretched thin. What we need and are asking for is not the nice-to-haves, but critical infrastructure communities need to live and thrive.”

Pallas’ time presiding over Werribee draws mixed feelings from locals: pride for having been represented in parliament by the state’s longest-serving treasurer, and resentment over a lack of progress and his residency outside the electorate.

John Lister, Labor’s candidate for Werribee, with Premier Jacinta Allan.Credit: Paul Jeffers

Labor candidate John Lister is eager to emphasise that he – unlike both Pallas and his Liberal rival Steve Murphy – lives in Werribee.

Lister, a 31-year-old high school teacher and CFA volunteer, defends Labor’s record in the region, pointing out that the government has built seven new schools, allocated an extra 144 police officers to Wyndham’s new police complex, and removed level crossings.

As for major transport projects like the SRL and Metro Tunnel, he says they will help students access universities.

“What we need in Werribee is someone who’s a true local who understands those pressures that they’re facing,” Lister says.

“I’ll be that strong local voice in the Labor government … There is more to do.”

Liberal candidate Steve Murphy with Opposition Leader Brad Battin.Credit: Luis Enrique Ascui

Liberal candidate Steve Murphy runs a real estate agency in Werribee and lived in the area for almost 30 years before moving to Essendon during the pandemic to be closer to his children.

“I’ve lived, worked, raised my family, volunteered [in Werribee] … I regard Werribee as home,” Murphy says.

“Me not living in Werribee is easy to fix. What’s a lot harder to fix is all the problems that Labor have caused over the years.”

Some Liberal Party figures have been maddened by the decision to select Murphy, who beat others including Indian-Australian entrepreneur Rajan Chopra for preselection.

“It’s a guaranteed disaster. He’s not going to win it. You need a local,” says a Liberal Party source, speaking on the basis of confidentiality.

Meanwhile, Labor figures say they are bracing for a swing, aware that byelections tend to turn against incumbents, and voters are weary after being governed by the ALP for more than a decade. Labor has held power in Victoria for all but four years since 1999.

“We know it’s going to be a difficult one to win,” says one insider, who requested anonymity to discuss internal party matters.

Both parties are vying for the support of Indian migrants, who represent a powerful, swinging voter bloc in Werribee. In 2021, 11.2 per cent of the district’s residents were born in India, up from 5.7 per cent in 2016.

Rashi Dhagat, who moved from India 10 years ago, is among those who will back the ALP but says there is a mix of opinions in her networks.

Rashi Dhagat at Mambourin’s Little Growling Cafe.Credit: Jason South

Dhagat has a two-year-old son and twins on the way, and she wants to see crime combatted. She lives in Mambourin and owns the suburb’s Little Growling Cafe, which was targeted in a spate of neighbourhood break-ins, forcing the developer to hire 24/7 security.

Thomas Curkowskyj, a Greens member, argues that an efficient bus network would be a panacea for many local problems, leading to less road congestion, reduced social isolation, improved living costs and less crime.

To get from his Werribee home to his engineering classes at Swinburne University, he must take a bus that runs once an hour, before boarding two trains.

Thomas Curkowskyj wants better buses.Credit: Jason South

“It is baffling,” Curkowskyj says. “But when you want anything in the seat, it’s probably not going to happen.”

It’s this growing desire for change that is dangerous for the ALP. Kos Samaras, a director with polling and research company RedBridge and former deputy secretary of the Victorian Labor Party, says there is “no question” that Labor has a better candidate than the Liberal Party, but that might not be enough to ward off the ill-feeling towards the incumbent government and its damaged bond with the outer suburbs.

On the other hand, Samaras says the decline in Labor’s primary vote in the west has not necessarily been to the Liberals’ benefit.

“The Liberal Party needs to prove it can compete in this part of Melbourne because by 2030, it’ll be hard to see someone in government in Spring Street without a presence in the west or north-west.”

In 2022, Pallas had 45 per cent of the primary vote before winning on preferences. Incumbent governments typically endure swings in a byelection of about 5 per cent, Samaras says. Anything beyond that is a worry for the ruling party.

Party strategists spent the weekend locking down preference deals after nominations closed on Friday.

The major parties had been hoping to win the favour of independent candidate Paul Hopper, whose unmissable campaign could make him the dark horse of the race for Werribee.

Hopper has decided not to preference any other candidates, saying he does not want to betray people who cannot stomach voting Liberal or Labor. His supporters will have to number every box as they see fit.

Paul Hopper, independent candidate for Werribee

Hopper, who is from Werribee, is expected to perform better than in 2022, when he came fourth with 5.9 per cent of votes.

He says that his key observation is that Labor supporters know this election won’t change the government and want to send a message that they’re unhappy.

Hopper plans to register The West Party with Point Cook’s Dr Joe Garra before next year’s state election. Crime is the biggest issue he is campaigning on, followed by transport infrastructure.

“I’m fiercely protective of this tribe out here and like many people, I’ve … just had a gutful.”

The Ison Road overpass is under construction.Credit: Jason South

The Greens are represented by Rifai Raheem, a union organiser from Tarneit. He is campaigning to address increased crime by establishing youth engagement programs and is calling for improved roads, transport and tertiary education options.

“I can sense that people need an alternative to Labor and Liberal. Both parties haven’t treated the west properly,” Raheem says.

The Prahran electorate will also vote on February 8 following the resignation of Greens MP Sam Hibbins, who had an affair with a staffer. That contest is largely between the Greens and the Liberals, with Labor choosing not to run a candidate.

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