Labor’s disastrous poll result will be met by disbelief – followed by hard questions

Has Victoria turned on the Labor Party or the person leading it?

This is the question ALP hard heads will shortly be asking – as soon as they pick their jaws off the floor after reading the latest Resolve Political Monitor poll.

Premier Jacinta Allan’s Labor government is now facing the prospect of its own political mortality.Credit: Justin McManus

A 22 per cent primary vote for state Labor is a number so bad that it barely computes.

The immediate reaction within the Labor Party and Premier Jacinta Allan’s supporters will be denial.

But, unless this poll is inexplicably rogue – and you can be assured the pollsters double and triple-checked their numbers and methodology when these results came in – a clear-eyed examination must follow.

A government in office since 2014 and a party in power in Victoria for all but four years this century is now staring at its political mortality.

The view from within the party before this poll was published was that the problem was not Allan but the cost of living, headline-grabbing crime and the crushing burden of debt, which have turned off voters in this once fiercely Labor-friendly state.

The belief within party HQ, or at least a fervent hope, is that in the nearly two years remaining between now and the next state election, Allan can define herself not by the difficulties many voters are experiencing, but by some of the solutions they need.

When facing such a low primary vote, it is a brave assumption.

It will also be alarming reading for Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and his federal MPs from Victoria. With a federal election expected in April, there is little time left to repair a damaged party brand.

Victorian opposition leader Brad Battin.Credit: Wayne Taylor

The most extraordinary thing about this poll is that it was taken when the Liberal Party was tearing itself apart.

Liberal MPs have spent what should have been the summer break knifing their former leader John Pesutto and squabbling over the spoils of opposition.

Normally, this sort of carry-on would be marked down by voters. According to this poll, it didn’t matter a jot.

Most voters wouldn’t know the Victorian Liberals’ new leader, Brad Battin, if they tripped over him in a bakery (like the one he once owned), but they prefer him to Allan as premier.

If the Liberal Party can demonstrate even the barest hint of competency and Battin can keep things together between now and next November, the election is theirs to lose.

For Allan and her government, we are entering the last days of Rome.

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