Labor primary vote slumps under Premier Jacinta Allan

Labor’s primary vote has dipped to its lowest level in years, increasing pressure on Premier Jacinta Allan as the party deals with the fallout from allegations of kickbacks, standover tactics and links to underworld figures in the CFMEU.

The findings are contained in a survey by Resolve Political Monitor, conducted exclusively for The Age, which shows Labor’s primary vote has dropped one percentage point in the past two months, putting support for the Allan government at just 27 per cent.

Labor’s primary vote has continued to fall with the Coalition now 10 percentage points ahead of the Allan government. Credit: The Age

Another fall in support for Labor represents a 12-point drop in core support for the government in the 10 months since Allan became premier. It is Labor’s lowest primary vote since Resolve started tracking it three years ago.

Over the past two months, the Coalition’s primary support has remained at 37 per cent, giving the opposition a 10-point lead over the government.

Support for the Greens has steadily increased over the past six months from 11 per cent to 15 per cent, driving an increase in the number of Victorians shifting away from the major parties, which has reached 36 per cent.

The survey of more than 1100 voters was conducted over June and July, with a 2.9 per cent margin of error, as voters read about a wave of crimes involving young offenders and mounting funding challenges for the state’s hospitals. But the research project was completed before revelations from an investigation by The Age, The Sydney Morning Herald, The Australian Financial Review and 60 Minutes alleging bikies, criminals and underworld figures had infiltrated the building industry, including on large publicly funded projects.

Resolve director Jim Reed said Labor’s vote appeared to have “bottomed out” with Allan unable to maintain the level of support for former premier Daniel Andrews as she battles a youth crime wave, pressure over health funding and tough economic conditions.

“Our research shows voters, including some of those who demonstrated great loyalty to Andrews, have not warmed to Allan in the same way. But the declining economic situation is also a common criticism of incumbents everywhere,” Reed said.

“It’s too early to gauge the effects of the CFMEU scandal, but it looks like Labor have bottomed out now.”

While the survey does not include a two-party preferred result, Reed said the slump in the government’s primary vote would result in Labor and the Coalition finishing extremely close in a two-party preferred contest, with Labor expected to benefit from preference flows.

“This is not a death knell for the government by any means,” Reed said.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto on Wednesday wrote to Allan demanding a royal commission into CFMEU misconduct on state government projects.

Earlier in the day, the premier said it was up to Victoria Police to determine if organised crime figures were currently working on taxpayer-funded Big Build sites – not her.

“That would be a question for Victoria Police who hold the responsibilities to investigate any allegations of criminal behaviour in any workplace,” Allan said, facing questions for a third day on the CFMEU scandal.

Despite support for the government effectively stagnating, the survey found most voters back Labor’s signature housing policy to boost density across Melbourne over the next three decades. Most Melbourne-based councils have been instructed to boost the number of dwellings by more than 80 per cent.

The survey results show 57 per cent of voters support the government’s plan to increase the number of homes by 2 million by 2051, compared to 22 per cent who oppose the move.

With an election still more than two years away, Swinburne University senior lecturer in politics and public policy Damon Alexander said the result indicated Labor was wading into dangerous territory.

“When you are getting a primary vote below 30, you are really pushing a rock uphill,” Alexander said.

“If you track this trend back to the transition period, you can almost see voters initially gave Jacinta Allan the benefit of the doubt but those people who had stuck by Labor are now looking for another alternative.”

Allan’s lead as the state’s preferred premier has also narrowed, with Pesutto closing the gap to just three percentage points – representing the closest gap since the 2022 election.

Reed said incumbents traditionally enjoyed a greater lead than Allan’s, but he pointed to the large number of voters – 42 per cent – who were undecided on whether they would prefer Allan or Pesutto to lead the state.

With state parliament due to resume in less than a fortnight, the Allan government is pushing ahead with new laws to raise the age of criminal responsibility to 12, despite looking at ways to target repeat young offenders after a wave of crime across Melbourne.

Allan, Attorney-General Jaclyn Symes, Police Minister Anthony Carbines and Youth Justice Minister Enver Erdogan held a series of meetings with Victoria Police, the courts and youth justice stakeholders on Wednesday.

“We will be taking their views and advice on the next steps we need to take here in Victoria, and stronger actions we need to take to support communities and support communities to feel safe,” Allan said.

The Resolve survey revealed the majority of Victorians oppose moves to lift the minimum age of criminal responsibility from 10 to 12 years – and then raise it again to 14 by 2027 – particularly voters in marginal seats.

As part of its research, Resolve Strategic asks respondents to explain why they support either party. Voters who backed Labor did so because of its track record of representing working Victorians as well as the government’s credentials on environmental policies.

The state’s economic woes and worsening debt position were the main factors driving support for the Coalition.

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