Koutoufides and Reece lord mayor battle could drag on for days

The tight race to declare Melbourne’s next lord mayor may drag on for days, with preference allocation the key to whether Nick Reece or Anthony Koutoufides triumphs.

It’s second time unlucky for Arron Wood, who has failed again in his bid to gain the keys to town hall, leaving the contest to be fought out between incumbent Reece, former AFL great Koutoufides and, potentially, independent Jamal Hakim.

Deputy lord mayoral candidate Erin Deering and lord mayoral candidate Arron Wood are out of the race. Credit: Justin McManus

Analysis by Koutoufides’ team predicts he will win if voters comply with the how-to-vote cards his team distributed. That would result in Reece being knocked out in the final rounds, leaving Koutoufides at 57.8 per cent of the vote, ahead of Hakim at 42.1 per cent.

Hakim said the second batch of votes from Group B, which were yet to be counted, tended to lean left, so it was too early to call.

“It will all be down to preferences,” he said.

Long-term council analyst Ray Collins said the race was tight.

“Anything could happen, but technically, I think there are only two results: Kouta or Reece,” he said.

As the incumbent lord mayor, Reece was considered by many as the frontrunner, so many candidates directed their preferences away from him and his team. Rivals Wood, Hakim and Ingleton all placed Reece towards the bottom of their preferences allocations.

Koutoufides will benefit from preferences from Gary Morgan and the Liberals, while Hakim is set to receive preference flows from Voices for Melbourne, the Labor Party and Wood.

Tuesday brought an ignominious end for Wood, who was touted as the main rival to Reece and was given the Victorian Chamber of Commerce’s sought-after endorsement.

Wood ran with Triangl bikini co-founder Erin Deering as his candidate for deputy lord mayor, with a well-funded campaign featuring huge billboards around the city.

In a statement posted on social media, Wood said vote counting showed he was not going to win.

“We threw everything at it, and I’m proud of the positive plan we put forward for Melbourne,” he said. “Ultimately though, it is Melbourne voters who decide, and we respect their decision.”

Analyst Kos Samaras, who undertook paid analysis for the Wood campaign, said Wood had been impacted by the Liberal Party’s decision to run an endorsed candidate for the first time, taking votes that Wood received in the 2020 election.

Liberal Mariam Riza is sitting in second place following the count of all first preference votes in Group A with 9219 votes, but a win is unlikely because of preferences. In contrast, Wood and Deering had polled only 6503 votes.

“Wood was like the de facto Liberal last time,” Samaras said.

Riza managed this result despite a low-profile campaign, and out-polled the Greens, who have historically performed well in the City of Melbourne.

Greens candidate Roxane Ingleton recorded 7239 first-round votes.

Wood departed town hall four years ago after serving as deputy lord mayor and acting lord mayor from 2016 to 2020, until Capp defeated him in the 2020 elections.

In this campaign, Wood promised to freeze rates, expand the free tram zone, bring back hotels stays for homeless people, reinstate the Melbourne Money scheme, and move bike lanes into the centre of Exhibition Street.

He opposed Reece’s pledge to sell the Regent Theatre if elected and said he would can Capp’s Greenline linear park project.

On other issues, Wood was notably silent.

He appeared to be so scared of being labelled a Green that he did not release an environmental policy until the week of the election, when it was expected many voters would have already voted.

His choice of Deering as a running mate also caused issues, with the entrepreneur not always across the team’s policies.

She pulled focus from the campaign at times with comments about using astrology to manifest the deputy lord mayorship and evading tax in Hong Kong, and then holding a birthday dinner at Reine & La Rue after co-owner Alan Yazbek was charged with holding a Nazi sign.

Erin Deering uploaded a series of emotional Instagram stories detailing her electoral loss. Credit: Instagram

Deering uploaded a teary Instagram story in which she shared news of the electoral loss.

“It looks like we are not going to win, and it’s a real shock. I think I am just devastated for Arron, and I also just feel like we were going to do great things for Melbourne, so I am devastated for Melbourne,” she said.

Deering said she was “still processing” the loss.

“I don’t know if this is the end of my political career, it probably is,” she said. “I’m definitely not made for politics because you do not cry on Instagram, you only cry on the inside.”

Wood said he would not contest the lord mayoral election again.

“I’ll now focus on my beautiful family, career and building my business again,” he said.

An official result is not expected until November 7.

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.