The 48 hours that will see a political reset and an Olympic restart

In the tourist brochures, Queensland is beautiful one day, perfect the next.

In Queensland politics, those 48 hours can see the season change and the outlook suddenly become unpredictable. If Premier Steven Miles thought the byelection results on Saturday night were tough, wait until he deals with the long-awaited Olympics review on Monday.

Premier Steven Miles leaves a press conference in the Brisbane suburb of Mitchelton the day after two state byelections, and with a major Olympic review due to be released the following day.Credit: Sean Parnell

The independent review that Miles commissioned, and gave former Liberal lord mayor Graham Quirk responsibility to deliver, will seemingly swap one politically tricky mega-project for another.

The Gabba rebuild, costed at $2.7 billion, will be portrayed as a poorly considered and difficult-to-deliver thought bubble. Brisbane Times understands Quirk and his team will recommend the stadium initially be kept, at least until after the 2032 Olympic and Paralympic Games, but ultimately be demolished as urban renewal sweeps through Woolloongabba.

Under the Quirk vision, Brisbane would instead have a new, 50,000-seat oval stadium – for the Games and, in future, cricket and AFL – at Victoria Park in Herston. More seats could be added later.

But before any proper planning or calculations have been done, the alternative stadium is estimated to cost around $3.4 billion – more than the Gabba, and with similar challenges.

Lord Mayor Adrian Schrinner has his heart set on retaining much of Victoria Park as green space. The Quirk review might have other plans.

Quirk was regarded as the best person to head the review, and is seemingly looking to recast the legacy of the global event he helped add to Brisbane’s calendar. Miles appointed him with the expectation that Quirk could make the hard decisions with the government’s support.

The question on Monday will be whether Miles can afford – literally and figuratively – to accept all of his recommendations, or whether a stadium in Victoria Park is simply too much, or too late in the process.

The former golf course might appear to be a greenfield site, but it is hilly, and flanked by a rail line, the Inner City Bypass, and established suburbs. It would need new connections that would require major civil works not unlike those planned for the Gabba to service the new Cross River Rail station.

Politically, the Gabba is now in Greens heartland, and the emerging party would love the stadium to eventually become green space, as Quirk would seemingly allow.

Herston is more hotly contested, and even re-elected LNP lord mayor Adrian Schrinner wants Victoria Park to remain green space. His plan, previously backed by Miles, is to make it even more of a park, under the Barrambin masterplan.

Reiterating his opposition to a stadium in Victoria Park on Sunday, Schrinner said he didn’t know what the Quirk review would recommend, but he insisted it was time to “get on with it”.

“We don’t want to work for the Olympics, we want the Olympics to work for us,” he said.

“We don’t want high-price stadiums, we want better transport, and we want a better outcome for the people of Brisbane and Queensland.”

Miles, for his part, vowed to work with Schrinner, insisting that, despite their political differences, “we do agree that the Brisbane 2032 Games will be the best Games ever and we’re determined to do what we need to do to deliver that”.

One recommendation the government will accept is a relocation of the Brisbane Arena, from above the tracks at Roma Street to an underutilised section of the adjacent Roma Street Parkland. The new site was originally set aside by the Beattie government for a landmark building, such as a Smithsonian, standing prominently at the Normanby Fiveways entrance to the CBD.

While it would still be expensive to build, the venue could host the swimming and become a major events centre after 2032. Apart from being easier to build on that site, the Brisbane Arena would be far enough from Roma Street station to allow crowds to disperse without security concerns.

That is a background consideration for the Olympics; at the RNA Showgrounds, for example, the new Ekka station might have to be shut down during events because it is simply too close to the arena to enable spectators to come and go safely. It is unclear whether Victoria Park, with nearby bus and Metro stations, makes transport any easier.

Some national sporting organisations will use the release of the Quirk review to attempt to renegotiate for better, smaller venues, and a more direct Games legacy for participants and fans.

If the government rejects the Victoria Park proposal, it is expected the money that would have gone towards rebuilding the Gabba would be spent creating a modern athletics venue at Nathan, the former QEII stadium now known as the Queensland Sport and Athletics Centre. The Gabba could be retained, for cricket and AFL, with money still left over to give it and Suncorp Stadium modest upgrades.

How Miles would pull off that dismount remains to be seen. What was clear on Sunday, however, was that neither he nor the lord mayor wanted another review, and the promised independent co-ordinating authority needs to take over ASAP.

Olympics supremo John Coates took the opportunity last week to emphasise the “New Norm” approach to efficiently hosting a Games, and the availability of existing venues for 2032. He said, pointedly, the Queensland government would be the first to respond to the Quirk review.

Miles, in responding to the byelection results, acknowledged he needed to demonstrate to Queenslanders that his Labor government understood their cost of living concerns. The October state election looms close.

Only time will tell whether the Quirk plan, or any plan C, would be easier to deliver, and whether either would allow for the true Games legacy to be everyday infrastructure upgrades in the south-east. The federal government will be asked to renegotiate its contributions.

There is every chance Brisbane will end up hosting the Games without having a true Olympic stadium. The question then is whether the city gets what it deserves for all the political and financial drama that has gone on to date.

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