Politics is a popularity contest, but is it a personality hire?

Remember “Kevin 07”?

Kevin Rudd’s winning slogan from the 2007 federal election is burned into my brain. I was about as politically engaged as you’d expect from a teenager in the early 2000s. But not entirely detached.

Hailing from the Sunshine Coast just north of Brisbane, former Labor leader Kevin Rudd won the federal election in 2007, ending John Howard’s 11-year term.Credit: LWZ

Former Liberal Party leader John Howard had been prime minister of Australia for 11 years – basically my entire childhood. During his peak, Howard was regarded as a pragmatic and measured leader, capable of showing strength that belied his moniker of “little Johnny”, for example in his reforms to gun laws after the Port Arthur massacre.

Political discourse went well over my head, but by the time I entered high school, in the years after 9/11 and the US invasion of Afghanistan, I had a vague sense the mood was shifting.

When the 2007 election campaign kicked off, Labor leader Rudd, who grew up on the Sunshine Coast, just north of Brisbane, became a cultural icon in the schoolyard.

It wasn’t just his handballing prowess or appearance on Rove, a program that drew devotion from my demographic back when people actually watched free-to-air TV. Rudd appeared likeable – even more so when Rove launched Kevin Rudd, P.M., a weekly comedic segment dedicated to his imagined exploits.

His approach was a hard swerve from Howard’s brand of conservative politics, which by then had become stiff.

Rudd was jocular but not a jock. A whip-smart nerd, but one people were endeared to. And despite appearing more polished than Queensland’s usual breed of rural politician, he belonged to us, and was embraced accordingly.

In retrospect – and with a more adult understanding of politics – Rudd’s win seems less about him and more about the economy, the state of the world and the electorate’s fatigue with Howard’s prime ministership. But nearly 20 years on, it’s that line between politician and actual person that I remember best.

As Australia prepares for another election, Opposition Leader Peter Dutton – another aspiring national leader with roots in Brisbane – is figuring out how to toe that same line.

Holding children and embracing old ladies – two ways to show people you’re just a normal functioning member of the human race. Credit: James Brickwood, Alex Ellinghausen

Political leaders aren’t known for their warmth and rizz, but Dutton has a particularly dry brand of no-bullshit. He’s derided by critics as divisive, with a track record that includes walking out on the apology to the Stolen Generations, accusing asylum seekers of faking claims and suggesting Melbourne was being overrun with “African gangs”.

While those that know him personally say he is warm and likeable, it hasn’t translated smoothly on a national stage.

Politics is a popularity contest, not a personality hire. So, does it matter whether we like politicians as people or not?

George Hasanakos, the research director for Australian political and election polling company DemosAU, says personality is important, but not as influential as I might think.

“This is a chicken-or-egg conundrum,” Hasanakos says. “What is driving voters’ intentions is habits of a lifetime, the state of the economy, how well things are going for them, where they come from.

“Characteristics of leaders and their personality traits can be influential, but there are a lot of other factors at play.”

If you think back to the federal election in 2022, then-LNP leader Scott Morrison wasn’t just losing voters on policy points, his brand had taken a hit.

His vibe swung between smug, insincere and indifferent. Combined with a nightmare PR run that included a trip to Hawaii during the bushfires and public remarks about women’s issues, by the end of his term he had become electorally unpalatable.

Like Rudd, Anthony Albanese’s single-mum, social housing battler schtick was antidotal, a cool splash of water after a fever dream. This time around, the PM seems to have lost a bit of the “Albo” from his Albanese, his personality perhaps diluted by the reality of leading a country during a cost-of-living crisis.

He’s also been criticised by those who were sold on his progressive politics. In his younger years, Albanese was a vocal supporter of Palestine. Since becoming prime minister, he’s been reluctant to use his platform to advocate for Palestinian causes during the Gaza conflict, preferring to straddle a centrist position.

Former PM or four-year fever dream? Credit: AAP

Hasanakos says the seat can also influence how much personality is rolled out. Greens MP Max Chandler-Mather comes to mind.

“Max Chandler-Mather has had a high profile over the previous three years, but he’s gotten [to where he is] on the back of a large door-knocking campaign. There was quite a bit of personality too, but it also required a lot of friends and supporters,” Hasanakos explains.

“Definitely inner-city seats where you have Greens versus Labor, they require that sort of brand definition ... the voters that are up for grabs in these contests are usually younger voters, and you need to have that personality.”

Young Australians are set to outnumber baby boomers at the polls for the first time this federal election, so the power of persona can’t be entirely discounted.

Albanese and Dutton kicked off their respective election campaigns in Brisbane two weeks ago. On Tuesday night, the pair faced off for the first leaders’ debate. Experts were torn on whether there was a clear winner, or a draw. The polls are just as close.

Personality isn’t the key to winning votes, but in a tight election, Hasanakos says it can make a difference. And after hearing one Queensland voter’s analysis of the country’s current picks – “Albanese makes me queasy and Dutton doesn’t push my button” – it might be time the leaders showed more of their true selves.

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