Cyclone Alfred: Everything Queensland and NSW residents need to know

More than 4 million people are now in the firing line of Cyclone Alfred as it tracks towards South East Queensland and northern NSW.

About 20,000 homes in Brisbane, 5000 on the Sunshine Coast and 6000 on the Gold Coast, are at risk of flooding from torrential rain and storm surges.

When is Cyclone Alfred expected to hit?

Tropical Cyclone Alfred is forecast to lash Brisbane for 12 hours when it makes landfall near the Queensland capital late on Friday evening.

The Bureau of Meteorology’s latest modelling shows Alfred is expected to make landfall on Moreton Island about 10pm on Friday (Queensland time). The centre of Alfred is expected to cross the mainland coast very early on Saturday morning, most likely between Noosa and Coolangatta, the bureau said. Alfred is not expected to reach the western side of Brisbane until about 10am on Saturday (Queensland time).

The cyclone has slowed considerably as it moves towards the coast, and was travelling west at 10km/h on Thursday morning.

The weather bureau’s latest tracking map differs significantly from a day ago, when Alfred had been forecast to make landfall about 2am on Friday.

“The possibility of the system reaching a low-end category 3 strength before making landfall cannot be ruled out, but remains a low risk,” the Bureau of Meteorology said.

Its effects are already being felt in Brisbane and along the Sunshine and Gold coasts, with huge swells and high tides causing beach erosion, and strong winds.

The heavy rain and damaging winds could ramp up from Thursday, ahead of Alfred’s official coastal crossing.

What is its predicted path?

Alfred is 245 kilometres east of Brisbane, but the far western edge of the storm system is already impacting the coast from about Coolangatta, on the Queensland-NSW border, to Ballina, in northern NSW.

The cyclone has slowed, but is expected to maintain its intensity as it tracks towards the Queensland capital as a category 2 storm.

Its effects could be felt in NSW all the way from Byron Bay to Lismore and Yamba, and possibly Grafton.

Where is it expected to flood?

More than 20,000 properties in Brisbane could experience anything from mild inundation in their backyards to significant flooding in their homes.

The Brisbane suburbs at most risk include Brighton, Windsor, Ashgrove, Morningside, Rocklea, Coopers Plains, Carina, Sandgate, Hemmant, Lota, Tingalpa, Indooroopilly, Albion, Bardon and Wynnum West.

A flood watch is in place from the Mary River north of Brisbane, all the way down to the NSW border.

The weather bureau says the heaviest rainfall and the greatest potential for severe flash flooding will be south of where Cyclone Alfred makes landfall.

“The winds around a cyclone travel in a clockwise direction, so the heaviest winds and strongest rainfall occurs on the southern flank of the system,” BOM senior meteorologist Kimba Wong says.

Nearly half a year’s worth of rain, around 400 millimetres, is expected to fall in Brisbane in just 24 hours.

More than 800 millimetres of rain is possible in Brisbane from late Wednesday, putting the south-east corner at risk of severe, potentially deadly flooding.

The heavy rain is likely to intensify on Thursday and Friday and continue into the weekend.

Parts of NSW’s north-east are forecast to be drenched with up to 800mm of rain from Wednesday to Saturday.

Forecast accumulated rain over the seven days ending on Sunday, March 9.Credit: Weatherzone.com.au

Why is Alfred so low?

“There are a few contributing factors,” Wong says.

The water temperature in the southern Coral Sea is much warmer than usual – about 26 to 27 degrees – which is helping fuel Cyclone Alfred.

Also, Alfred is largely being steered by an upper trough currently sitting over eastern Australia that is driving it south.

“What’s changing is that the upper trough is being replaced by an upper ridge, in kind of like a wave pattern. It’s that upper ridge that will change the direction of the cyclone and see it head west, towards the Queensland coast,” Wong says.

Cyclone Alfred on Wednesday.Credit: Weatherzone.com.au

What has the Queensland government said?

Queensland Premier David Crisafulli told residents on Monday, “Now’s the time to prepare”, including having tinned food, making an emergency kit, gathering passports and clearing debris from properties.

He also urged residents to consider evacuating while it was still an option.

“We are putting all the preparations in place, and we’re asking Queenslanders to do the same. It is important that people take this event seriously,” Crisafulli said.

The Queensland government has asked telecommunications companies to increase network capacity to cope with an expected jump in internet usage and millions of messages throughout the emergency. It has also asked supermarkets to ensure shelves were regularly restocked amid a rush for bottled water and other essential items.

Residents have started fleeing their homes, schools have closed, public transport has been cancelled and two Black Hawk helicopters are on standby, as residents stay home and businesses close their doors.

Sandbagging stations have opened across the region, with hundreds of people queuing for hours at council and SES depots.

What has the NSW government said?

The NSW State Emergency Service will deploy additional flood rescue and storm response staff to the Mid-North Coast and Northern Rivers, a region that was devastated by floods in 2022.

“We have also sent communication equipment, support personnel, aviation resources and specialised vehicles ahead of the forecasted impacts later this week,” NSW SES Assistant Commissioner Nicole Hogan.

NSW Emergency Services Minister Jihad Dib assured locals the authorities are doing “everything we can” to prepare for the looming system.

“We’re cognisant of what the Northern Rivers have gone through and some of the trauma that they carry,” he said.

What is a category 2 cyclone?

Category 2 cyclones can generate destructive wind gusts between 125km/h and 164km/h, which can bring down trees and power lines, topple caravans, tear boats from their moorings and damage houses.

Cyclone categories are all based on the wind strength, with 1 being the lowest and 5 being the highest. However, the categories do not take into account the severity of the rain or potential flooding.

“A category 1 cyclone can bring more rain and flooding than a fast-moving category 5 that rips through an area,” BOM senior meteorologist Kimba Wong says.

The bureau has advised there is a “low risk” of Alfred being upgraded to a category 3 before it crosses the coast, meaning wind gusts of between 165km/h and 224km/h.

How long is Alfred expected to last?

“That’s the million-dollar question. It really will depend on the speed of the system and when it makes landfall and how quickly it moves inland,” Wong says.

Alfred may still pose a risk of heavy rainfall and flooding across the weekend.

There is also the potential for delayed flooding to occur early next week as water moves through river catchments.

“Once it moves further inland, it will likely weaken from a tropical cyclone into a tropical low; however, those systems can still bring torrential rain with them,” Wong says.

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