Big swells, heavy rain: How Cyclone Alfred will affect south-east Queensland

Will it, won’t it? That is the question Queenslanders are asking as Tropical Cyclone Alfred intensifies off the coast.

The system has strengthened into a category 3, with wind gusts up to 185km/h, sitting about 860km north-east of Mackay.

The cyclone is moving slowly south through the Coral Sea and is forecast to continue to move generally south while strengthening, the Bureau of Meteorology warned at 4am on Thursday.

So far, gusty winds and showers have been the only signs of Alfred’s presence.

On Thursday morning, the bureau said there was a high confidence Alfred would remain well off the Queensland coast into the weekend.

But there was a much uncertainty about Alfred’s movements after Saturday, with the bureau warning of a risk the cyclone might move closer to the central or southern Queensland coast by Sunday.

Modelling about the cyclone’s future movements remained uncertain on Wednesday.

A map showing Alfred’s predicted path, until February 28.Credit: BoM

“At this stage, it’s not possible to know if Alfred will track over the Queensland coast next week, and if it does, whether it will be a tropical cyclone or a weaker low-pressure system,” Weatherzone’s Ben Domensino said on Wednesday.

It could hit central Queensland as early as Sunday, probably south of the area near Townsville that experienced almost 130 centimetres of rain and destructive flooding in just a few days this month.

However, another weather model that can predict up to 15 days ahead indicates Alfred may turn directly towards the coast.

Considered one of the world’s best, the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecast predicts Alfred will make landfall somewhere on the central Queensland coast, possibly as far south as Bundaberg, on Monday or Tuesday.

A model showing Tropical Cyclone Alfred crossing the Queensland coast on Monday, March 3.Credit: European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts

Under a third scenario, it would stay offshore but skirt uncomfortably close to the south-east Queensland coast, and possibly northern New South Wales.

A fourth would see it continue to move well away from the coast, while under another, it would track towards the coast before heading back out to the Tasman Sea.

While Alfred’s exact track is uncertain, it will make its presence felt in Queensland’s south-east corner, generating powerful swells, king tides and storm surges, said Felim Hanniffy, senior forecaster at the Bureau of Meteorology.

Seasoned surfers on the Gold and Sunshine coasts are said to already be preparing for a weekend of big swells.

One possible trajectory of Tropical Cyclone Alfred, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.Credit: BoM

“We already have elevated tides, and with this system coming in, it’s going to exacerbate the tides,” Hanniffy said. “Even if the system remains off the coast, we still have elevated tides and the potential for significant beach erosion.”

Should Alfred make landfall around Mackay or Bundaberg, the south-east corner, including Brisbane, could cop heavy rain.

A cyclone would be another blow for Queensland as it recovers from widespread flooding. Recovery efforts are under way in the state’s north after record-breaking February rainfall triggered floods that claimed two lives and forced hundreds to evacuate.

Even if Alfred weakens and crosses the coast as a tropical low, the system could sit over south-east Queensland for several days, dumping heavy rain over the region.

“Most of the time, it doesn’t need to be a tropical cyclone to create flooding,” Hanniffy said.

What is making Alfred’s path so hard to predict are the other weather systems at play, including a cold front over south-eastern Australia and a high-pressure system in the Tasman.

“[This cyclone] will be dictated by other weather systems,” Hanniffy said.

“All have the potential to move [Alfred] in a certain direction over the weekend … but it is not yet clear which one of these will have more of an influence.

“That’s where the big split in the modelling is, particularly as you go into Friday, and the weekend as well. A lot will hinge on how these systems move.”

Three tropical cyclones are spinning in the South Pacific, an occurrence that scientists say is unusual.

Tropical cyclones Rae, Seru and Alfred are all churning amid the peak cyclone season, which officially started in November and ends in April.

Tropical cyclones Rae, Seru and Alfred.Credit: Weatherzone

with AAP and AP

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