An independent review of Sydney’s patchwork of toll roads tested scenarios that included a nine-fold increase in charges for trucks and other heavy vehicles using the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Tunnel.
A confidential report also reveals the NSW government was warned last year that traffic modelling relied upon to consider a shake-up of the city’s 13 toll roads was an inadequate foundation for making multibillion-dollar decisions.
Only southbound journeys on the Sydney Harbour Bridge are tolled at present.Credit: Anna Kucera
The report last June into the traffic modelling used for the government-commissioned review of tolling shows that the latter had considered scenarios which involved a “nine-fold increase” in charges for heavy vehicles crossing the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Tunnel.
At present, trucks are charged the same time-of-day tolls as cars at $2.67 to $4.27 for southbound trips on the government-owned and operated bridge and tunnel. Northbound journeys do not incur a toll. In comparison, trucks are charged three times what cars are tolled on Sydney’s WestConnex motorway.
The peer review by consultants at ShapeTransport of the modelling said the greatest short-term risk in the traffic forecasts was how motorists might respond to significant changes in tolls.
“There is not a single model in existence that could reasonably forecast with a great degree of certainty the demand response of nine-fold increase in tolls, as specified in the scenarios tested for this independent review,” it said.
A final report from the review led by former competition regulator Allan Fels was released in July, a month after the peer review by ShapeTransport of the modelling was completed.
The Fels review proposed declining distance-based charges across the entire toll road network, while recommending that revenue from the introduction of two-way tolls on the Harbour Bridge and Harbour Tunnel, along with the Eastern Distributor, be used to lower charges across the motorway system.
Coalition roads spokesperson Natalie Ward said it was concerning that the government was told about the quality of the traffic modelling work, yet it was still proceeding with negotiations.
“After two years, the government should clear up why bureaucrats were looking at a nine-fold increase in tolls for some drivers or, in fact, provide any detail about what is on or off the table for toll reform,” she said.
The government has been negotiating with toll road giant Transurban and other large investors about a shake-up of tolling contracts since July.
Trucks are charged the same as cars for southbound journeys on both the Sydney Harbour Tunnel and the Bridge.Credit: Louie Douvis
Roads Minister John Graham said the Fels review developed an extensive range of scenarios and options, and none should be viewed in isolation to predict any future changes to tolling under a reformed network-wide system.
“Under the Liberal Party, Sydney became the model city for ‘toll mania’. The Minns Labor government is working to provide a fairer toll network,” he said.
The peer review by ShapeTransport in June said the modelling in “its current state” should not be used for investment decisions on individual toll road assets.
“It might be prudent to further upgrade the demand modelling approach to an investment-grade level prior to negotiating alternative toll arrangements with the incumbent private sector toll road operators,” it said.
The term “investment-grade forecasts” is used in the context of them standing up to scrutiny when considering a multibillion-dollar investment.
Tolls cost Sydney motorists around $2.5 billion each year. The peer review recommended further work was needed to achieve investment-grade forecasts. The traffic modelling used by Transport for NSW to forecast toll road demand was developed for WestConnex.
The consultants who were hired by Treasury to peer-review the demand modelling used for the Fels review found that it was “probably adequate for testing alternative toll policies”.
However, ShapeTransport consultants said further development was needed if the modelling was to be used to negotiate alternative tolls with incumbent motorway operators. Their report cited “serious questions over the ability” of the toll review model to “forecast with great certainty the demand response to large toll increases”.
Transport for NSW said any price changes would be confirmed through the outcome of the toll reform program.
“The nine-fold increase referred to in the independent toll review was for heavy vehicles crossing the Sydney Harbour Bridge and Tunnel. The government was clear the independent toll review was not government policy,” it said.
The agency said traffic modelling was “being prepared iteratively and upgraded” to address the issues raised in the peer review as part of the process for the toll reform program. “These upgrades will ensure the modelling is fit for purpose as decision points are reached in the process,” it said.
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