Minns’ dilemma: honour the deal or deal with dishonour

As opposition leader, Chris Minns had powerful ammunition against the ageing Coalition government. Under the conservatives, classrooms across the state had been left without teachers. They were either fleeing or could not be coaxed into the public system.

Poor pay and too much extra admin was to blame for these crippling vacancies, Minns argued. And few could disagree with him. The public sentiment was on the side of teachers (and Minns) after the pandemic lockdown exposed parents, first-hand, to the challenges of educating kids.

Chris Minns meets with teachers on the campaign trail in March.Credit: Flavio Brancaleone

But Minns is now premier and the situation in the state’s classrooms has not improved. In fact, it has worsened and the crisis in public schools is now very much the Minns government’s problem. Rapidly, his strongest selling point is becoming his weakest link.

Under the watch of the NSW Labor government, the number of teacher vacancies in the state’s public schools has grown. In May, there were 1820 unfilled positions. By August 3, according to updated figures from the Department of Education, that number had grown to 2023.

This means that the No.1 issue facing Minns is the teachers’ pay dispute, which has the potential to be far more damaging than any other wage battle. The teachers are angry and organised. And they are convinced that Minns has broken a deal with them after shaking hands on a lucrative one-year pay offer only for the government to decide it wanted a four-year agreement.

Unlike their loud Health Services Union colleagues, the NSW Teachers’ Federation kept a lower profile during pay negotiations, led by soon-to-retire boss Angelo Gavrielatos.

Angelo Gavrielatos, outgoing president of the NSW Teachers Federation.Credit: Brook Mitchell

Gavrielatos could have left his position with a spring in his step, believing teachers and the government had settled on hefty increases for graduate and senior teachers of 12 per cent and 8 per cent. The deal, struck on May 31, was to be announced amid fanfare at the Teachers’ Federation annual conference on July 2. Until it collapsed. The government asked Gavrielatos to delay his big announcement to allow a few sticking points with other unions to be ironed out. Gavrielatos agreed. He must be kicking himself for his goodwill because the announcement was not just delayed, it was killed off completely.

Instead, the government wanted to head back to the negotiating table to discuss new conditions, which included a limit on wage increases to 2.5 per cent in the following three years. Surely, the government saw the political danger in that. NSW Labor spent months arguing against the Coalition’s measly 2.5 per cent pay rise, only then to cite that figure itself.

The Teachers’ Federation is the second-largest union in the state, only out-numbered by the nurses. Their campaigns are sophisticated and effective, including their newly created missive which emotively says, “honour the deal”. They also point out ad nauseam that they staffed voting booths across the state to help Labor get elected.

Amid the national euphoria around the Matildas, Minns took to social media early in the week to announce that stadiums across the city would throw open their gates on Wednesday night to allow free viewing of Australia’s World Cup semi-final clash.

He surely expected thanks from the vast legions of fans following the Matildas. Instead, the premier’s social media feed was flooded with teachers demanding that he “honour the deal”. When teachers decide to speak, they roar.

They are also not shy about taking industrial action. Under the Coalition government, teachers walked off the job three times in just six months, most recently in June last year. They will do it again.

On Wednesday, they rallied outside Education Minister Prue Car’s Londonderry office (highlighting that in her electorate there are 21 vacant full-time teaching positions) and Minns’ Kogarah office is in the firing line on Thursday. You would imagine a Macquarie Street rally cannot be far off.

The teachers might be furious but Minns has a gigantic task ahead of him. The budget is in a parlous state and next month, when it is delivered, the full extent will be revealed. He cannot let the state’s wages bill balloon or the Coalition will crow incessantly about Labor’s inability to run finances.

On his mind would be looming demands from teachers beyond the one-year deal. Although their big increases from the one-year offer would compound, Minns, his treasurer Daniel Mookhey and Treasury boffins would have feared similar expectations from teachers in subsequent years.

Ongoing pay rises of that magnitude, no matter how deserving, would cause untold damage to the state’s budget. Minns and his team would feel caught in a no-win situation, but it is one of their own making.

In March, voters took a punt on supporting someone they knew little about. Minns needs to ensure they don’t decide they bet on the wrong person. A guarantee to pay essential workers more, and to scrap the cap that kept their wages low, helped Minns win the election. But it could also become the issue that damages his leadership if he cannot deliver on his promise.

Alexandra Smith is the Herald’s state political editor.

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