If the Coalition sticks with nuclear, the fallout will be toxic

Much of the post-election commentary has rightly focused on how the Coalition’s nuclear energy proposal was bad – very bad. It was one of the reasons Peter Dutton lost his seat and for net swings against the Coalition in areas such as Gippsland and the Hunter. Unpopular among women voters, who the Coalition continue to struggle to appeal to, and unpopular among undecided voters.

More importantly, nuclear undermined Peter Dutton’s credibility. After the Voice, the only real policy most voters associated with the opposition leader was nuclear. Once his ill-fated campaign began with a backflip on public servants working from home, the swath of undecided voters got spooked.

Peter Dutton’s nuclear plan undermined his credibility. Credit: Monique Westermann

No one wants someone who seems highly disorganised to build a nuclear reactor.

If you scrutinise the research numbers, the lack of public support for nuclear was clear; more importantly, support for renewables didn’t dip in the face of the pro-nuclear push. Pursuing nuclear made the Coalition look like it was out of sync with what people really wanted. If it continues to pursue this as a policy, it will be seen as defying the will of the people.

Over the years of Labor’s first term, despite a cost-of-living crisis and well-funded campaigns against renewables online and in traditional media, research showed steady support for solar, wind and batteries. Even the election of Donald “drill-baby-drill” Trump didn’t undermine support.

The online misinformation and disinformation campaigns against renewables certainly ramped up after Albanese was first elected, supported by attacks from Sky News and the Murdoch-owned press.

The Coalition playbook was simple: cast enough disinformation and misinformation across channels to create doubt and antagonism against renewables. It fully believed it could win seats off the back of voter dislike of offshore wind in particular, especially in areas such as the Illawarra. It was in for a surprise.

The outcome of this election shows us a truth the Coalition must accept: amid a cost-of-living crisis, Australians back renewables. In fact, the overall swing towards Labor in seats where anti-offshore wind campaigns were rife was greater than the overall statewide swing. Except for Monash in Victoria, anti-offshore campaigns backfired on the Coalition.

Dutton and his Coalition colleagues in the Nationals severely underestimated the Australian people, particularly those in the regions. Support in proposed nuclear reactor communities, including Gladstone, Bunbury, Hunter and Gippsland, was weak, ranging from 22 to 32 per cent.

A poll published in this masthead in April showed 31 per cent of voters said their biggest hesitation in voting for the Coalition and Dutton was the plan to use nuclear power, up 5 percentage points from two months earlier.

This campaign was fought and won on the cost of living. In the end, Australians believed the right policies on renewables – including more access to home batteries – would save them money now and into the future.

Can you imagine what would happen if all the confected outrage over renewables disappeared, and all that was left was public opinion? The support for renewables is there once you strip away the headlines that seem to suggest otherwise.

So, what does this mean for our newly elected Labor-landslide majority government? And for a Coalition still wrestling with where to go on energy policy? When the word “mandate” gets used in relation to election victories, I have to resist a reflexive eye-roll. Election results don’t necessarily equate to public endorsement of every promise made in the campaign by the winning party. But this result is definitive, and more remarkable considering so many federal elections in the past two decades have been close. The last time there was such a strong message from the electorate was in 2007. In many respects, the Rudd government underestimated the permission the public gave it to act on climate. When Labor stepped away from that commitment, its credibility sagged.

A triumphant Albanese government, going into a second term with more power and confidence, should feel like it can act on the energy transition with a belief that the community will follow, especially if its policies deliver cost savings to households and significant and lasting benefits to the regional communities hosting renewable infrastructure. It’s a green light for further progress, but understanding community sentiment – and responding to it – will be essential to maintaining the permission.

Early signs from the Labor government indicate it knows it can proceed swiftly. On election night, Minister for Climate Change and Energy Chris Bowen said, “In 2022, the Australian people voted to finally act on climate change. After three years of progress, in 2025, they said keep going.”

“Keep going” should be the official government slogan. Fingers crossed that sanity prevails, but early signs from the Coalition seem to indicate more of the same: support for nuclear, which really means less renewable energy.

If the members of the Coalition don’t want to believe the polling data, perhaps they should think about these figures. In the years they have been pursuing their nuclear policy, global solar power has doubled. According to the Clean Energy Council, more than 300,000 small-scale rooftop solar systems were installed across Australia in 2024, bringing the total number to more than 4 million. Utility battery storage more than tripled. And last year, Australia added more renewable capacity to the energy system than the entirety of the Coalition’s nuclear plan.

The transition to renewables is happening, and nuclear is a policy that is too toxic for the electorate and too late to be helpful for emissions.

Any politician who resists that logic will be warming the benches of opposition for some time to come.

Dr Rebecca Huntley is one of Australia’s foremost researchers on social trends and a Fellow of the Research Society of Australia. She is director of research at 89 Degrees East.

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