Trudeau’s global fans might be surprised by his demise. No one in Canada is

Like father, like son?

Canada, like its southern neighbour, enjoys political dynasties more than Australia. And there is no dynasty larger than the Trudeaus, Canada’s Kennedys.

Justin Trudeau followed in his father Pierre’s (left) footsteps in leading Canada, but Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre (right) appears likely to win the next election.Credit: Illustration: Dionne Gain

Pierre Trudeau, prime minister between 1968-79 and 1980-84, defined much of modern Canada and its progressive-left Liberal Party. The Charter of Rights, fighting Quebec separatism, and, in particular, being “not America” on the global stage.

His son Justin, famously destined to be PM since being anointed by then-US president Richard Nixon when he met Trudeau Snr in 1972, brought the Liberal Party back from political extinction in a single election in 2015, rekindling the “Trudeaumania” his father inspired in the ’60s and ’70s. Those of us with a different political outlook have always been perplexed by his status as a progressive icon despite the incidents of dressing up and blackface, or his ethically compromised removal of his attorney-general (the first Indigenous woman in the role).

While Trudeau’s global fans might be surprised by his demise, no one in Canada is. Though he won a majority in his first election in 2015, his popularity waned relatively quickly; he ran minority governments in 2019 and 2021, and won fewer votes than the Conservative opposition on both those occasions.

Like his father, Justin has been effectively forced to resign by his own party, fearful of polls showing widespread displeasure and anger with both the prime minister personally and his party. He leaves office with Canada’s existential economic relationship with the US at its highest risk in decades, with relative competitiveness with the US and comparative investment falling, and widespread household economic pain.

Unlike Australia, a Canadian Liberal caucus cannot remove him from office – this is the result of a year of internal pressure and terrible polls. Trudeau intensely fought to keep his job and made it clear in his departing press conference that his leaving was about the lack of internal support, not an acceptance of public discontent, his lack of popularity or electoral prospects, or Canadians’ desire for change after nearly a decade in office. Departing in the year he takes the chair of the G7 is a particularly bitter pill for a Canadian PM, and Trudeau in particular.

The final trigger was his attempt last month to effectively sack his long-serving loyal deputy and finance minister, Chrystia Freeland, in an attempt to save his position. But the bigger issue looming over Canada more than any other is the re-election of Donald Trump, and his threat to impose 25 per cent tariffs. Canada sends over three-quarters of its exports to the US, so if implemented this will lead to significant job losses and economic pain across Canada to a degree no other country will experience.

Justin Trudeau, like his father before him, forgot that while Canadians are proudly independent, they also understand their relative economic wellbeing (no less than their national security) is almost entirely dependent on access to the US market and strong relations with a US administration. Effectively campaigning against Republicans inside Canada, and Trump in particular, for domestic political purposes, has come at a potentially very real economic cost to Canadians. It will likely fall to a post-election Conservative Party PM Pierre Poilievre to rebuild relations with the US, as it did to Conservative Brian Mulroney following Pierre Trudeau and Ronald Reagan’s sometimes strained alliance.

While for decades the progressive side of politics has had dewy eyes about Canada, it is the right of centre around the world that’s now watching keenly. For the real story of Canada in recent years is the rise of the Conservative Party, and in particular leader Poilievre.

Pierre Trudeau returned to the prime ministership after a stint as opposition leader.Credit: Alamy Stock Photo

A conservative more in the mould of Margaret Thatcher, John Howard or Jeff Kennett than Trump, Poilievre and his team are younger than Trudeau’s team, and more comfortable with openly challenging progressive-left presumptions. They are a new generation of politicians whose first experiences are with the fragmented and contestable media market of the post-internet and social media world. His success in mobilising new constituencies for the centre-right has the potential to upend old assumptions about voting behaviour in a way not seen since the turn of the century – and not just in Canada.

In explicitly repudiating Trudeau’s language and approach to social and cultural issues, promising to repeal Trudeau’s agenda from drug liberalisation to the carbon tax, and focusing on very specific concerns around inflation, housing costs, immigration and crime, Poilievre has seen the Conservatives develop large leads among younger voters, Canadians with migrant backgrounds, blue-collar workers and others that parties of the right have historically not successfully appealed to. His communication via social media, going direct to voters around traditional media, has reached extraordinary audiences in the millions. Polls have been forecasting a record election victory for the Poilievre opposition for the past 18 months, with the lead recently increasing to over 20 points, threatening the party status of Trudeau’s Liberals.

But keep an eye on Justin Trudeau – his father lost an election in 1979, resigned as opposition leader pending a leadership contest, then un-resigned when an election unexpectedly presented itself, and went on to serve as prime minister for another four years. Recently, Justin Trudeau made an off-hand comment that at his age, his father still had a dozen years as PM ahead of him.

However, the more likely ending is Trudeau’s departure and a leadership change, providing a temporary PM before a conservative landslide at an election soon after – just as occurred after Trudeau Snr eventually resigned in 1984.

Scott Ryan was a minister in the Turnbull government, president of the Senate and recently high commissioner to Canada 2021-24.

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