These men insisted Harris would win. Now they’re asking what went wrong

The “Nostradamus” of US polling, Allan Lichtman, has his head in his hands, and his eyes dart back and forth as he looks at a sea of red.

Since 1984, he’s predicted nine out of 10 US elections correctly, aside from the uber close 2000 race between George W. Bush and Al Gore — but not this one.

It’s a few hours in, and Lichtman has already called the battleground states of North Carolina and Georgia for Trump.

Commentators Rory Stewart, Allan Lichtman and Anthony Scaramucci all said Harris would win.Credit: Various

He’s hoping for a Pennsylvania “miracle”, he says on his YouTube live stream with an overall audience of more than one million people. But then — “no, the math doesn’t work”.

“Numbers don’t lie. I’m a numbers guy, you’re a numbers guy,” he tells his son, Sam Lichtman, then there’s silence.

Within minutes, Allan is rubbing his temples. “Oh, the democracy’s gone. Once democracy’s gone, it’s almost impossible to recover.

“Throughout the 21st century, democracy has been in decline everywhere around the world, and America has now fallen in step.”

Lichtman, an American historian, was among a number of prominent political commentators adamant about a Kamala Harris win, and left blindsided when it did not eventuate on Wednesday.

About six hours into his livestream, Lichtman was lost for answers, saying Trump’s impending victory was “unfathomable”. All he could offer was a message of encouragement, despite his despair.

“My message to all of you is never lose hope. Never stop fighting. Democracy is worth saving, and it will only be saved if we all fight for it,” Lichtman said.

“Keep up the fight, especially you young people. The future is still in your hands. Goodnight.”

Former White House communications director Anthony Scaramucci, however, did offer some answers as to how he got it so wrong, reasoning, “populism is surging”, and saying a vote for a Trump presidency was also a vote against something else.

“It was woefully mishandled. [Joe] Biden wasn’t up to running, he wasn’t capable of admitting it — that’s a Shakespearean pride thing,” Scaramucci said on The Rest Is Politics podcast.

“They left [Harris] with 105 days to put this together. It was very hard to do, and … she wasn’t out of central casting as the type of person to beat Donald Trump.”

Harris was not Barack Obama or Franklin Roosevelt, nor the “Energizer Bunny” Trump represented, the financier said.

Scaramucci noted he was initially on the record as backing California governor Gavin Newsom as a better presidential candidate, before he threw his endorsement behind Harris and “offered her my support”.

“I just want to point out to people this is what happens in life,” he said.

“You get ownership of something, and then you get emotionally invested in it, and sometimes it takes away some levels of your objectivity.”

The Rest is Politics UK host, former Downing Street communications director Alastair Campbell, called on the panellists to reflect on what they got wrong.

“There’s no getting away from it. This is an incredible political comeback, success story — call it what you will,” Campbell said. “Even though we can say — as we all do the whole time — the guy’s a liar, the guy’s a racist, the guy’s a misogynist etc, this is an incredible thing that he’s pulled off here.”

His co-host and former UK cabinet minister Rory Stewart conceded he got it “totally wrong”, saying he thought Harris would win, and do so comfortably. He thought her victory would come down to young African-American voters, money, and the performance of Biden’s administration, he said.

“I think I was wrong because I’m an optimist, and I hate the idea of being right pessimistically. I think you can be a false prophet and right,” Stewart said.

“You can align yourself with the worst instincts of humanity. You can assume that everything’s going to hell in a handbasket, or you can hope, and my bet on Kamala Harris was a bet on the American people ... it was a bet on hope.”

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