By Alex Crowe
Science and engineering leaders are raising the alarm over secondary school students’ declining interest in advanced maths, warning of a widening skills gap that already costs the economy billions.
Enrolments in VCE specialist maths, the highest level students can study, have tumbled 40 per cent since 2004, and maths methods was down 13 per cent in 2024. About 3740 students will sit the specialist maths exam on Monday, down from 6208 two decades ago.
John Monash Science School students Madeleine Carter, Tommy James, Mikayla Glassford, Amrita Kaur and Oisin O’Donoghue.Credit: Justin McManus
“We are already falling behind,” Australian Academy of Technology Science and Engineering chief executive officer Kylie Walker said.
“Every time we get a report back that says that our maths completion and attainment rates are not internationally competitive, it becomes a bigger risk for Australia.”
A recent report from the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute shows 68 per cent of year 12s were enrolled in maths nationally in 2022, dropping from about 73 per cent in 2012.
Just over 26 per cent studied an intermediate or higher level maths in 2022, down from more than 40 per cent in 1997.
Australian Academy of Technology Science and Engineering chief executive officer Kylie Walker.Credit: Salty Dingo
The report found the decline was partly due to a perception from students that choosing easier maths they knew they would perform well in was the best way to maximise their ATAR.
Maths is not a requirement for most university degrees, and dissatisfaction with how the subject is taught was also thought to contribute to low enrolments.
Results from the Programme for International Student Assessment showed Australian students’ mathematical literacy has plunged 37 points over the past two decades.
Australia’s score fell to the OECD average for the first time in 2018, with 23 of the 79 participating countries performing better in maths. It has continued to decline, and in 2022, nine countries significantly outperformed Australia.
The silver lining from the most recent results is that Australian students endured the COVID-19 pandemic better than students from other countries.
Despite promises from successive governments to improve learning outcomes, NAPLAN results have also stagnated over the past 20 years. In 2023 and 2024, one in three school students fell short of minimum numeracy and literacy expectations, and about one in 10 needed extra support.
Greg Ashman, maths researcher and deputy principal at Ballarat Clarendon College, believes the slide in maths enrolments can be traced back to primary school.
“The single biggest thing we can do to encourage kids to do maths at higher levels is teach it really well from primary,” Ashman said.
Ballarat Clarendon College deputy principal Greg Ashman says reversing declining maths enrolments starts in primary school.Credit: Luka Kauzlaric
According to Walker, more than 90 per cent of primary school teachers lack confidence in teaching maths because most had stopped studying it in year 10.
Basic operations, times tables and maths facts needed to be taught explicitly in primary school to build fluency, he said.
“When this happens, students gain confidence, see themselves as capable, and then will be more likely to take it in senior years.”
Results from the latest Trends in International Mathematics and Science Study showed lack of self-confidence and dislike of maths disproportionately affected female and disadvantaged students.
Their lack of confidence was thought to partly explain why more male students continue to enrol in higher maths than female students.
In 2022, 6.4 per cent of females took higher mathematics compared to 11.8 per cent of males.
Ashman told this masthead the decline in advanced maths students “is a crisis”.
“We are going to have nuclear submarines, and we will need nuclear physicists and engineers. Where are we going to get them from without that pipeline?” he said.
A report from the Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute has found enrolments in high-level maths are declining nationally.Credit: Dion Georgopoulos
Walker said Australia was already short tens of thousands of engineers, and maths formed the foundation of future in-demand jobs.
“Without that maths confidence and those maths skills, it’s going to be pretty difficult, particularly as that shortage grows, to train students to take on those crucial jobs,” she said.
Engineers Australia acting chief engineer Bernadette Foley said Australia was facing an engineering shortfall that could stretch to tens of thousands of jobs over the next 15 years, with impacts most pronounced in critical fields like civil, electrical and mechanical engineering.
Foley said the skills gap could cost the nation billions due to delayed projects, rising infrastructure costs, and reduced economic productivity.
“Without urgent action to attract and develop young engineers, Australia’s growth in key sectors like energy and infrastructure could stall, risking not only economic loss but also the nation’s ability to meet key goals, such as emissions targets for 2030 and 2050,” she said.
The Australian Mathematical Sciences Institute report found a pressing need to upskill teachers to promote effective teaching and reverse declining enrolments.
Research indicates up to 40 per cent of teachers taking maths classes in secondary schools are not qualified in the subject.
Australian Association of Mathematical Teachers chief executive officer Allan Dougan said recruiting, training and retaining high-quality secondary maths teachers were crucial.
Dougan said making sure current maths teachers had clear curriculum and peer support, as well as access to maths resources, were equally important.
“We need to support these teachers to not just deliver content but to spark curiosity in students and drive that love of learning mathematics,” he said.
John Monash Science School, a selective-entry school in Clayton, has about 95 per cent of its cohort enrolled in maths methods in year 12.
Principal Peter Corkill said about 50 per cent also do specialist maths in their final year, and the majority go on to careers in science or engineering.
“The kids that really love maths have, at some stage, been taught by an excellent teacher that has turned things around and showed them how to access a whole different method,” he said.
“You can’t underscore the importance of good maths teachers.”
A Victorian government spokesperson said lifting student outcomes in numeracy and maths was a priority.
“Through a focus on explicit teaching and the provision of Victorian lesson plans, we will help teachers with the best evidence-based teaching that will deliver strong mathematics and numeracy outcomes for all students,” the spokesperson said.
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