Labor baited Brighton and Brightonians jumped on the hook

It was neither bad planning nor a coincidence that Labor chose the upmarket seat of Brighton – deep in political enemy territory – to announce plans to boost housing density in established suburbs last weekend.

At the last state election, the Labor candidate in Brighton received just over 10,000 primary votes compared to the almost 19,000 ballots supporting Liberal James Newbury.

Bayside residents outside the premier’s press conference on Sunday.Credit: Nine News

As if on cue, an angry mob of puffer-jacket clad home owners greeted Premier Jacinta Allan on Church Street with chants of “shame” as Allan unveiled plans to fast-track high-rise developments in some of Melbourne’s most affluent suburbs.

I am unsure what the collective noun might be for a throng of “Prues and Trudes” – the blue-blooded homeware ladies from comedy Kath and Kim – but that’s precisely what it looked like.

Accounts differ about how much of a role Labor played in ensuring the premier’s whereabouts were known to protesters on Sunday morning, but the reaction from the premier’s private office to the angry mob has been one of adulation.

It’s far from the first protest movement whose strident actions may have done its cause more harm than good.

Think about Bob Brown’s anti-Adani convoy that travelled up Australia’s east coast into north Queensland’s regional mining communities at the 2019 federal election, only to be mocked by conservatives for alienating the very voters it was supposed to draw in.

Or the former students and parents from Sydney’s Newington College who were mocked mercilessly online when they were drawn to tears at the “woke” decision to turn the prestigious school co-ed.

In short, Labor is confident that the majority of Victorian voters will roll their eyes at the boat-shoe brigade of Brighton who fear chaos in the streets of their well-heeled suburb. Instead, they will try to frame these protesters as self-interested blockers, who are seeking to deny their privileges to newcomers.

If demographic trends are anything to go by, Labor may be onto something.

After years of treading lightly with Baby Boomers because of their immense political power, the tide is turning.

By the next election, more than half of voters on the electoral roll are expected to be aged 18 to 45 – generations Y and Z – and party strategists insist that housing remains their number one issue. It’s easy to see why.

Over the past 20 years, home ownership has dropped for younger generations. According to the last census, 55 per cent of Millennials (those born between 1981 and 1996) are home owners compared with 62 per cent of Generation X and 66 per cent of Baby Boomers at the same age.

“It’s [housing] the most talked about issue among Millennials and Generation Z across the country,” one Labor insider said this week.

But this demographic shift, which gives voting power to wannabe home owners, is unlikely to be enough to guarantee Labor a fourth-straight term in power in Victoria.

The key problem for the Allan government will be to convince voters that its housing shake-up will actually deliver more affordable houses and more livable communities for Victoria.

To achieve this, Labor cannot blindly ignore the concerns of communities, and must allay fears of home owners that their property values will not tumble as a result of zoning changes.

With a little over two years until the next election, Allan is also in a race against the electoral clock.

Building industry figures say it can take between two and three years from developing a concept to completion, making it increasingly unlikely that voters will feel any real impact on affordability before the election.

Labor insiders hope to address this gap with a 12-month discount on stamp duty for all off-the-plan units, townhouses and apartments, as well as more rental reforms that are expected to be unveiled in the coming days.

With Allan’s personal popularity in freefall, the housing overhaul also presents the premier with the opportunity to make housing one of her principal causes and use it to differentiate herself from her predecessor, Daniel Andrew, who largely shied away from housing reforms.

But to make it an election-winning policy, Allan will need to work on her communication with voters and sell these changes with more conviction than she has for other policies.

While there are risks for Labor, the Coalition must also avoid falling into the government’s trap.

To achieve this, Liberal MPs must not capitulate to their older home-owning base, however tempting.

The Coalition’s strength has long been aspiration, selling itself as the political party best placed to help you achieve the Australian dream. If the Coalition blindly blocks these reforms, it will severely limit their ability to pick up a new generation of voters at the next election.

The Liberal Party must also walk a fine line by standing up for its traditional voters without appearing to be anti-development. Perhaps the opposition’s best argument is that Labor has had almost a decade to improve home ownership in Victoria, and has largely failed to act. Not to mention the lack of community consultation on its latest housing package.

Smarter heads in the Coalition also hope to harness the premier’s city-centric policies and use it to campaign in growth areas on Melbourne’s fringe that have long felt the government has neglected infrastructure needs in their communities.

As one Liberal MP said this week: “If they think they’ve got us cornered on this, good luck to them.”

Annika Smethurst is state political editor.

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