The grand final 125 years in the making: The early tip for Swans v Lions flag battle

The MCG will have its first non-Victorian grand final since 2006 when the Brisbane Lions and Sydney Swans take to the field next Saturday. The Lions continued their magical finals run with a heart-stopping 10-point win over Geelong on Saturday night, while the Swans accounted for an undermanned Port Adelaide on Friday.

Isaac Heeney’s Sydney Swans will play Lachie Neale’s Brisbane Lions for the 2024 AFL premiership.Credit: Artwork: Stephen Kiprillis. Photos: Getty Images

The Swans have been the team to beat this season, finishing on top of the ladder despite a late hiccup, their excellent work early in the campaign and strong finals campaign meaning they could not be better positioned for the ultimate success.

The Lions have had to go the hard way, winning three finals.

But they now have the chance for redemption after falling just short against Collingwood last year on the sport’s biggest stage.

History

The two teams met once this year when the Lions stormed home from 15 points behind at the final break to claim a two-point win at the Gabba in round 19. There were five lead changes in the final term before Callum Ah Chee’s stunning left-foot snap settled the result with three minutes remaining.

For those with a deep history bent, the two clubs – in a former guise – have previously met in a grand final. In 1899, Fitzroy defeated South Melbourne by a point to claim victory at the Junction Oval, and secure back-to-back flags.

Men on a mission: John Longmire and Isaac Heeney celebrate Sydney’s win on Friday night.Credit: AFL Photos via Getty Images

For Swans coach John Longmire, there is much riding on this game. Yes, he guided the Swans to the 2012 flag, but his teams have fallen short in the grand finals of 2014, 2016 and 2022. Now comes a fifth chance for Longmire in his 14th season as coach.

“He is a great mentor. He is a people first sort of coach. I definitely gravitated towards that, and those values in him, he’s a fantastic coach,” ruckman Brodie Grundy said.

Now boasting legitimate stars including Isaac Heeney, Nick Blakey, Chad Warner and Errol Gulden, a flag is there for the taking.

For Lions coach Chris Fagan, the league’s oldest coach, he again has the opportunity to become only the second man to lead the Brisbane-based Lions to a premiership.

Having overcome their choker tag of seasons past, the Lions fell just short in last year’s grand final. Now comes the chance to make amends.

Injury report

The Swans have two major focuses. Skipper Callum Mills strained a left hamstring on September 10, but trained well on Friday. However, Mills remains in a major fight to be fit.

Key forward Logan McDonald also faces a fitness test, having been subbed off in the final term against the Power on Friday with an ankle issue.

The Brisbane Lions almost certainly will need to find a replacement for ruckman Oscar McInerney, who dislocated his shoulder and was taken to hospital.

“It’s probably unlikely he is going to play next week … it would be some sort of miracle,” Fagan said on Saturday night.

Fagan said Darcy Fort would likely take McInerney’s spot.

Tactics

The Swans like to move the ball through the centre corridor by hand and through angled chip kicks, a style which worked well until round 16 when they lost five of their next six games. They appear to have relaxed a touch on this approach since, although this much is clear - they are unbeaten in the 18 games they have outscored an opponent on turnover.

The Lions will need to find a way to curb a Swans midfield that has unprecedented midfield goalkicking power. Overall, the Swans have seven players with at least 26 goals each this season, and can mix and match with height and speed. How they go about attempting to quell Isaac Heeney will be a fascinating watch. And energiser bunny Tom Papley will also be high on Fagan’s to-stop list.

Swan Harry Cunningham has been superb in defence all season, and will get another tough job.

The Lions have had a never-say-die attitude this September, reinforced in their stunning comebacks against Greater Western Sydney and Geelong.

They, too, boast a deep midfield, led by Lachie Neale, who craves the ball in tight, but it’s been their run and carry from half-back, led by Brandon Starcevich and Ryan Lester, which has ignited their surge into the grand final. Cam Rayner has become a match-winner, while crafty forward Kai Lohmann is a cult-hero.

Early tip

Brisbane Lions by two points

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