Gold is soaring on fears Kamala Harris is about to unleash an economic catastrophe

It has already punched through $US2500 ($3679), the highest price it has ever reached. Over the next month, it may well go to $US3000 or perhaps even higher.

Gold has entered a new bull market, with investors piling into the precious metal. There are plenty of conventional explanations for that, from the prospect of falling interest rates to strong buying from Chinese and Middle Eastern central banks.

Vibe high: Democratic presidential nominee Vice President Kamala Harris on the final day of the Democratic Convention. Credit: AP

But there is a far bigger one that we should be paying more attention to. This could be the “Kamala Trade”. Kamala Harris has cruised to the Democratic nomination on a wave of vibes, and that may well take her all the way to the White House. And yet she is also certain to continue the wild spending, and soaring deficits, of the Biden presidency.

The dollar may be about to be debased, and gold has always been the only real protection against that. It is an early warning of the potential catastrophe she is about to inflict on the global economy.

The artificial intelligence stocks might grab the headlines, along with tech companies and commodities. But there has been only one real standout asset in 2024 so far and that’s gold.

From $US2000 an ounce at the start of the year, it reached $US2500 last week, and may keep on climbing higher. It is now well above the highs it reached at the height of the eurozone crisis, and shows little sign of slowing down.

To the mainstream analysts who follow the precious metal, there are a host of reasons for that. The Federal Reserve is expected to cut interest rates in the autumn, and that always boosts the gold price as the metal does not pay any interest. There is plenty of geopolitical uncertainty around, with conflicts in the Middle East, and the war between Russia and Ukraine escalating.

And of course, central banks have increased their holdings. “Led by China, central banks purchased 1037 tonnes of gold in 2023,” claimed a recent note from JP Morgan on the soaring price.

“In the same vein, 2024 has started strongly with net purchases of 290 tonnes in the first quarter – making it the fourth-strongest quarter of purchases since the buying binge began in 2022, according to the World Gold Council.”

Add those all up, and the stage was always set for a stronger gold price. And yet, there may be a far bigger force at work: the prospect of a Kamala Harris presidency. Over the last month, the American vice-president has executed a political coup of breathtaking audacity.

The Harris campaign has been all about vibes and tactics with almost no clues on what her policies might be.

She filled the void left by the ageing Joe Biden with speed, killed off any potential rivals and wrapped up the nomination with hardly a murmur of opposition. There is no question that she is a formidable political street-fighter. In response, her Republican rival Donald Trump has been left floundering, and looks old and exhausted. Harris is ahead in the polls, and is the favourite with the bookmakers.

Here’s the problem. The Harris campaign has been all about vibes and tactics with almost no clues on what her policies might be. Even heading into September, with the presidential election only two months away, her campaign website is all about how to donate, and says almost nothing about what she might do with four years in the White House.

Her only concrete ideas so far have been a plan to prevent “price gouging” that was dismissed even by Left-leaning economists as wildly impractical, and a pledge to increase the corporation tax rate from 21 per cent to 28 per cent.

But one thing we know about her for certain is this: she is a big government, high-spending politician, whose instincts will be to dish out even more money than the man she will replace.

Gold may well go to $US3000 or perhaps even higher.Credit: Louie Douvis

The United States has a huge and growing budget deficit. Even with an economy that is performing respectably, and with no major crisis such as a pandemic or a war to deal with, the deficit is expected to come in at close to 7 per cent of GDP this year, and will remain at 6.5 per cent next year.

The amount the US borrows every year has already gone over $US2 trillion, and will hit $US2.8 trillion by 2034 on current spending plans, while total debt as a percentage of output has surged.

These are unprecedented figures for what remains the world’s reserve currency. Under Biden, money has been spent on a vast scale on industrial and green subsidies, most of it in the form of tax credits that are open-ended.

Democratic presidents used to at least pay lip service to controlling the deficit, and Bill Clinton actually delivered a surplus, the last occupant of the White House of either party to do so. Those days are long gone. They don’t even pretend to be interested any more.

The message of Harris’s rapid elevation, and indeed of her likely victory later this year, is already clear. On her record, there is no possibility that she might try to reduce the deficit. Instead, she is far more likely to borrow even more.

The United States will continue on a path of fiscal and monetary recklessness that has no real parallel in economic history. In effect, the dollar will be debased, and debased again, until finally there is a reckoning with the vast deficits it is running up. It may well end up destroying the global monetary system.

There is only one real refuge from that: gold. Its bull run may be, in reality, the “Kamala Trade” – and it could take the precious metal a lot higher still.

The Telegraph, London

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