Dutton to ditch Paris Agreement: analysis reveals nuclear impact on emissions

The opposition’s nuclear energy plans would force Australia to fall massively short of the nation’s emissions target and generate more than 2 billion tonnes of extra greenhouse gas by 2050, breaking Australia’s commitment to the Paris Agreement.

New analysis revealed the emissions blowout following Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s declaration he would ditch Australia’s legally binding climate target to cut emissions 43 per cent from 2005 levels by 2030.

Opposition Leader Peter Dutton is expected to name seven possible sites for nuclear power plants in the coming weeks.Credit: Louie Douvis, Getty

Dutton told The Australian on Saturday that the government’s renewable goal was unattainable and “there’s no sense in signing up to targets you don’t have any prospect of achieving”, and pledged only to meet a goal of net zero emissions by 2050.

Solutions for Climate Australia calculated the extra emissions that would be generated by coal and gas plants while waiting for the first nuclear plants to be built, which CSIRO reported last month could not be achieved until 2040 at the earliest.

Dutton has said the Coalition would boost the role of gas power to fill gaps in the energy grid until his reactors are built, and would ensure coal plants are not shut before their energy supply is replaced.

This increased reliance on fossil fuels would generate 2.3 billion tonnes more greenhouse emissions compared to the Albanese government’s climate policy. That’s more than five years’ worth of Australia’s annual emissions, which were 433 million tonnes in 2023.

Dutton’s declaration will reignite the climate wars and ensure the next federal election, due by May, is a referendum on climate policy after Prime Minister Anthony Albanese last week vowed his government will campaign on this issue every day.

The opposition’s plan would break from the terms of the Paris Agreement, which demands its members increase their emissions goal every five years, with the Albanese government committed to set a 2035 target by February.

It is also at odds with findings of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change – the United Nations’ expert science body – that fossil fuels must be rapidly phased out to meet the Paris Agreement, which the Abbott government signed Australia up to in 2015.

The Paris Agreement commits nations to contributing to action that limits global warming to under 2 degrees – and as close to 1.5 degrees as possible – to avoid the worst damage.

Climate scientists say reaching net zero emissions by 2050 is not enough to achieve this goal, and countries must start reducing emissions rapidly now to have any hope of limiting warming to below 2 degrees, rather than waiting until later decades to deliver deep reductions in greenhouse gases.

Currently, 194 nations are signatories to this deal, including all developed nations and Australia’s major trade and security partners – the US, UK, Japan, Korea, China and India.

Dutton’s rejection of Australia’s 2030 goal will place Australia outside the bounds of the Paris Agreement.

“They’re walking away from the Paris Agreement … saying that Australia will join Libya, Yemen and Iran outside the Paris Accord,” said Climate Change and Energy Minister Chris Bowen.

The Investor Group on Climate Change, representing institutional investors with total funds under management of more than $30 trillion, said Dutton’s policy threatened to derail the clean energy transition.

“Back-flipping on these commitments and withdrawing from the Paris Agreement would corrode investor confidence at a time when Australia is competing for funding for new technologies and clean industries, local jobs and training opportunities,” said the group’s policy director Erwin Jackson.

However, the Australian Industry Group, representing the nation’s manufacturers, said interim targets like the 2030 goal “don’t mean much if we’re not going to reach them”.

“We need to remain open-minded on technology, but we need to ensure power is both affordable and reliable,” said the group’s chief executive, Innes Willox.

“Australia will join Libya, Yemen and Iran outside the Paris Accord.”

Climate Change Minister Chris Bowen on Opposition Leader Peter Dutton’s proposed policy

While the government is underwriting renewable energy and transmission lines, backed by billions of dollars, to encourage industry to invest in the energy transition, its renewable plans have been hamstrung by slow development approvals for wind and solar farms, and new transmission lines are running years behind schedule.

But the Department of Climate Change, Energy, the Environment and Water found last year that Australia was on track to cut its emissions by 42 per cent by 2030.

Opposition Climate Change spokesman Ted O’ Brien rejected the department’s projections and said the government’s renewable goals were unachievable.

“We will not accept from Labor an ongoing dishonesty trying to tell the Australian people that everything’s going well,” he said.

When speaking to media on Saturday, O’Brien would not respond to questions about how a Coalition government could comply with the Paris Agreement, nor if it would set an interim emissions reduction target between now and 2050.

Solutions for Climate Australia drew on modelling from the energy market operator to compare the opposition’s plan to the projected emissions under the Albanese government’s plan to more than double renewables to 82 per cent of the grid (from their current level of 40 per cent).

“Our analysis shows the federal Coalition’s plan for nuclear reactors would see Australia throw its commitment to limit global heating to 1.5 degrees out the window,” said Solutions for Climate Australia campaigner Elly Baxter.

O’Brien also rejected the analysis of emissions under the opposition’s nuclear policy, arguing it did not account for the slow renewables rollout.

The analysis factors in from 2040 onwards a nuclear reactor rollout as swiftly as France did in 1978 when it launched its nuclear program.

Energy analyst Dylan McConnell, a senior research associate at the University of NSW, said Solutions for Climate Australia’s estimate of emissions under the Coalition’s nuclear plan was conservative and in reality could be higher, as France already had two decades’ experience building nuclear reactors by 1978.

“It [the modelling] assumes nuclear power in Australia would go from nothing to more than the current capacity of Australia’s coal fleet in 10 years. That’s an incredible rollout,” he said.

The modelling assumes, based on comments from senior figures including Nationals Leader David Littleproud, that a Coalition government would halt construction of large-scale wind and solar farms and continue to roll out rooftop solar panels for homes.

When asked if the opposition still wanted to pause the rollout of renewables, O’Brien said details of the policy would be released in due course.

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