‘There is a contest’: Australia and China jostle for Pacific influence

Every diplomatic tool possible will be used to counter China’s increasingly skilful efforts to expand its influence in the Pacific, the federal government says, as its landmark resettlement and security treaty with Tuvalu hangs in the balance.

The government’s efforts to bolster ties with Pacific nations have come under intense strain in recent weeks, with Papua New Guinea’s foreign minister, Justin Tkatchenko, floating the possibility of a security and policing pact with China, and Nauru switching diplomatic recognition from Taiwan to Beijing.

PNG Prime Minister James Marape is scheduled to deliver the first address by a Pacific leader to federal parliament on Thursday, underlining Prime Minister Anthony Albanese’s determination to ensure Australia remains the partner of choice for Pacific nations.

Minister for the Pacific Pat Conroy said the government would use “every lever of statecraft” to deepen engagement with the Pacific. Credit: DFAT

“We’ve made no secret that there is a contest,” Minister for International Development and the Pacific Pat Conroy said when asked about competition with China for influence in the region.

“We will continue our policy of using every lever of statecraft to deepen our relationship with the region.”

The government is confident Marape will travel to Canberra despite a looming vote of no confidence against him in the PNG parliament following recent riots and looting in the capital, Port Moresby.

Conroy said he was comforted by subsequent comments by Tkatchenko that Australia remained PNG’s security partner of choice, and that talks with China about possible security assistance were in their “very early days”.

Conroy, who visited Nauru and Timor-Leste this week, said he was “very hopeful” that a Port Moresby-based team would soon be admitted to the National Rugby League, an idea the government has backed as part of a soft-power push to deepen ties between Australia and PNG.

A senior government source, speaking on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive matters, said Beijing was “incredibly active” in courting Pacific nations and had improved its strategy to gain a diplomatic foothold in the region.

“They’re learning from their mistakes and getting smarter at what they are doing,” the source said.

Instead of trying to convince Pacific nations to sign up to large, pre-written documents, Beijing was now working more collaboratively with Pacific leaders to see how they could help address their policing and security needs.

James Batley, Australia’s former top diplomat to Solomon Islands and Timor-Leste, said: “China is clearly working hard to strike security and policing deals across the Pacific.

“They are working to undermine our influence in the Pacific and Western interests in general.”

Tuvaluan Prime Minister Kausea Natano, who spearheaded the creation of the Australia-Tuvalu Falepili Union, lost his seat in last week’s elections, and several contenders to replace him have called for the agreement to be scrapped or renegotiated.

Conroy said: “We are committed to implementing our commitments under the Falepili Union, and we will work with the incoming government to do so.

“I’m firmly of the belief that the union is in the interest of both countries.”

Asked whether the agreement would survive the leadership transition in Tuvalu, he said: “I am optimistic, but we totally respect the decisions of the Tuvalu government.”

In November, Albanese hailed the “groundbreaking agreement”, which committed Australia to help Tuvalu in the event of emergencies such as natural disasters, pandemics and military conflicts, while resettling up to 280 Tuvaluans in Australia each year.

In return, Australia was granted effective veto power over any possible security pact between Tuvalu and another nation such as China.

The members of Tuvalu’s parliament are due to meet within days to decide who will serve as prime minister.

Former prime minister Enele Sopoaga, who was re-elected to parliament last week and wants to take back the top job, has described the deal as alarming, bullish and inconsiderate.

Vowing to scrap the treaty in its current form, Sopoaga said in December: “This is like a bucket of dirt that is being dropped on the people of Tuvalu.”

Other contenders for the prime ministership have said that Tuvalu should examine whether it should continue to recognise Taiwan or switch to China.

Mihai Sora, the project director of the Australia-PNG network at the Lowy Institute and a former diplomat in the region, said: “The Pacific is still clearly very hotly contested in geopolitical terms.”

Sora said he was confident the incoming Tuvaluan government would retain the key features of the Falepili Union, saying: “It’s too good an offer for Tuvalu to pass up completely.”

Conroy said the government was working hard to find a solution after Bendigo Bank said it would stop supplying banking services to Nauru by the end of the year.

The Coalition has accused Labor of failing to match its pre-election rhetoric about restoring ties with the Pacific by playing a more active role in the region and increasing Australia’s emissions reduction targets.

Conroy countered that the Coalition “weren’t even getting involved in the race [for influence in the Pacific] because they wouldn’t show up and wouldn’t take seriously the region’s really deep-held beliefs on things like climate change”.

“Our engagement and policies are paying huge dividends,” he said, pointing to a $200 million Australia-PNG security agreement announced in December and a new visa lottery scheme for Pacific nationals.

The government announced a security pact with Vanuatu in 2022, but the country’s new prime minister, Sato Kilman, has said his nation’s parliament was unlikely to ratify it in its current form.

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