Residents of flood-ravaged central Victorian towns have been told to evacuate and others have been told it is too late to leave as the Goulburn and Campaspe rivers swell following a day of record-breaking rainfall across the state.
Evacuation orders were in place for parts of Seymour and Rochester, which was inundated by the October 2022 floods, on Monday evening, while it was too late to leave for those on flood-affected streets in Yea.
Floodwaters in Rochester are expected to peak at 114.8 metres above sea level on Tuesday morning, a metre lower than the 2022 peak. The Goulburn River at Seymour peaked at 6.8 metres about 4pm on Monday and is likely to remain above the moderate flood level overnight and into Tuesday.
A number of watch-and-act alerts were issued in the early hours of Tuesday, with instructions to move to higher ground in areas including along the Goulburn River from Murchison to Shepparton, along the Goulburn River from Seymour to Murchison, along the Yea River at Yea and along the Campaspe downstream of Rochester.
The rising waters came after record-breaking rainfall hit Victoria. Bendigo broke a 90-year-old daily record, with 92 millimetres of rain falling in the 24 hours to 9am on Monday. Around the Heathcote region, at least 184 millimetres of rain fell in 24 hours, representing about three months’ worth of rain in a day. And Redesdale had 117 millimetres of rain, a record for the small town.
“That’s a daily record for any month with over 120 years of data,” the weather bureau’s Michael Efron said.
In Melbourne, the highest rainfalls were recorded in the outer eastern suburbs, according to the bureau’s Stephanie Miles. She said the highest totals were recorded at Monbulk, where 89 millimetres was recorded, and in Coldstream, where 76 millimetres fell. In the city about 30 millimetres was recorded after non-stop rain.
A warning was issued for a landslide near the Mount Dandenong Tourist Road at Ferny Creek on Monday evening. The landslide is 40 metres wide and 70 metres long, VicEmergency said.
The Maribyrnong River catchment, which was also hit by the October 2022 floods, recorded more than 50 millimetres of rainfall since 9am on Sunday, and up to 15 millimetres was forecast for the catchment on Monday.
Authorities said they expected minor flood warnings across parts of Melbourne to remain in place for the next couple of days, particularly in Maribyrnong and near the Yarra River between Yarra Glen and Abbotsford.
“Stay away from the bike paths and walking paths over the next couple of days,” Emergency Management Commissioner Rick Nugent said.
Meteorologist Miriam Bradbury said that while rain was easing around the city and in central and northern parts of Victoria, the state would continue to experience periods of humid, warm and rainy weather into February.
“Looking at the long-range forecast for the coming weeks, and even the next few months, there is still a reasonably moderate to high chance that we’ll continue to see above-average rainfall,” she said.
Despite El Nino typically bringing hot, dry conditions, Bradbury said Australia was still experiencing the oceanic and atmospheric phenomenon as predicted.
The Goulburn River pictured at Hilldene rose rapidly due to the downpour on Monday. Credit: Paul Jeffers
“We’re still sitting in our El Nino, but we’re also expecting a reasonable chance of more above-average rainfall. That means we could see further rainy periods over the coming weeks.”
Emergency services had to rescue 38 people across the state, 16 of whom were in Bendigo, including those whose homes were flooded, who drove through floodwater or were caught up in flash flooding. The SES responded to 1200 calls for help.
“Cars don’t float for very long,” Nugent said. “Please listen to the warnings and don’t drive through floodwater.”
Campers or holidaymakers staying at caravan parks near creeks and rivers were also warned of rapidly rising floodwaters.
Travellers were warned of dangerous driving conditions on parts of the Hume, with water pooling on roads between Broadford and Seymour.
Shepparton resident Gilberto Fabbri, who drove to Melbourne on Monday for an appointment, said he saw more than 10 cars broken down on the side of the Hume Freeway. He suspected potholes, made worse by weeks of rainfall, were to blame.
Regional rail services were also affected by floodwater, with two V/Line trains to Albury cancelled on Monday. Train and coach services were suspended on the Bendigo and Echuca lines because of flooding at Goornong, and passengers were asked to defer their travel until further notice. Diversions were in place for coach services from Mansfield to Melbourne and Swan Hill to Bendigo because of floodwater.
The wild weather also caused some flight cancellations at Melbourne Airport.
Braving the rain in Williamstown on Monday morning.Credit: Paul Jeffers
Premier Jacinta Allan said the state government would hold a security and emergency cabinet meeting on Monday evening.
“That will also guide the advice to government on what other supports will be activated for households who have been particularly affected,” she said at a press conference in Bendigo on Monday afternoon.
The premier said authorities were still in the emergency response phase.
“As the weather starts to clear, as we get roads reopened, the response teams can go in [to those areas] and do those important impact assessments.”
In Rochester, where an evacuation order was issued about 5.30pm on Monday, almost 1000 homes were inundated in the 2022 floods.
About a third of those homes have not yet been repaired, the community recovery committee estimates.
“Why wasn’t something done?” said Elizabeth Trewick, principal of St Joseph’s, the local primary school. “Everyone knew we would flood again, but we did not think this sort of risk would happen in 15 months.”
Rochester is downstream of Lake Eppalock, which contains about 277,000 megalitres of water. The reservoir was more than 90 per cent full before Monday’s rains.
That, and its proximity to the river, put the town in harm’s way again. Rochester was also flooded in 2011.
“After the last flood, we went from being incredibly optimistic to being incredibly pessimistic,” said Leigh Wilson, chair of the community recovery committee. “To have something happen again … it’s very disheartening for a lot of people, and incredibly stressful.
“Everyone that is under threat has the right to be angry. But the reality of it is, it is complex. There isn’t a simple option – if there was, we would have done something about it.”
By Monday afternoon, authorities were forecasting that about 35 homes could be inundated, while 200 houses could be cut off by the floodwaters.
Further south, farmer Ian Meherall, who lives on the banks of the Goulburn River at Nagambie, said he had spent Monday morning moving pontoons, boats and seating to higher ground given his property was affected by the 2022 floods.
“We’ve had three significant rainfall events in the last three weekends,” he said.
“So, that’s where I’m a little bit concerned. It’s the culmination of all that water. The ground’s not taking it any more.
“We’ve got a wheat crop, which has been harvested, thank goodness, but the water is through the stubble [in that paddock], which I haven’t seen before.”
Meherall said his son-in-law had sent him a picture earlier on Monday that showed the main road into Heathcote covered by floodwater.
“Apparently the roads between Nagambie and Heathcote are all under water,” he said.
Seymour service station worker Raelene Clark said she drove to the banks of the Goulburn on her way home from an overnight shift on the Hume.
She watched from her car, stunned, as the water swallowed a picnic table.
“It came right up to the road, so I said, ‘Time to go.’ It’s obviously burst its banks and there’s going to be more to come. You can’t get down half the streets.”
Clark said she drove to a supermarket to stock up on food after witnessing the rising water.
“After the last floods they had here, you never know what’s going to happen.”
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