‘Incredible’ rain, storms to batter Victoria, prompting flash-flood warnings

Victorians are being warned to brace for heavy rainfall and flash-flooding, with severe weather to sweep across the state from Sunday.

The Bureau of Meteorology and key state emergency services held a joint press conference in Melbourne on Saturday to alert Victorians to the looming severe weather threat.

Emergency Management Victoria Commissioner Rick Nugent warned Victorians to be prepared for major storms.Credit: Paul Jeffers

Bureau forecaster Michael Efron said the moisture in the air was “incredible” and there would be significant storms.

“The amount of moisture across the state … that’s what you would normally see in somewhere like Queensland,” he said.

“The conditions are ripe for some really significant thunderstorms through western parts on Sunday, and then for the Melbourne area early hours on Monday.”

Areas that can expect heavy rainfall on Sunday include the Horsham, Warracknabeal, Charlton, Swan Hill and Mildura regions.

A downpour in Melbourne on January 2, 2024.Credit: Joe Armao

On Monday, the severe weather is set to move towards the centre and north-east of the state, hitting Bendigo, Seymour, Echuca, Wangaratta, Albury-Wodonga, Benalla and Bright.

Efron warned that rainfall could reach 60 millimetres an hour.

“Through the rest of [Saturday] we are going to issue severe weather warnings for heavy rainfall covering large parts of central and northern, north-eastern Victoria,” he said.

Victorian Emergency Management Commissioner Rick Nugent said the extreme rain would put pressure on already full rivers, creeks and water catchments across the state.

A flood watch has been issued for much of central and northern Victoria for minor to moderate flooding.

“It’s highly likely that there will be flash floods in [flood-prone] areas,” Nugent said.

He urged people who were holidaying to stay alert to warnings and their surroundings, particularly if they were staying at caravan parks or camping near waterways.

Nugent also issued a plea for people not to drive in floodwater.

“You’re driving a car, not a boat. We don’t want emergency service personnel having to rescue people during this event,” he said.

Victorian SES boss Tim Wiebusch said it could be the last decision a driver made.

“We’ve already seen 20 flood rescues from the start of 2024, and that’s 20 too many, and unnecessarily ties up our emergency services.”

On Tuesday, a man and his dog were swept away in their car during flash-flooding in the state’s west before they were rescued from the vehicle’s roof.

Wiebusch said the Avoca and Lodden rivers were expected to rise, and that the state was seeing “phenomena we haven’t seen for some time”.

“We are often seeing those links to tropical moisture around the summer period, so … not quite unusual, but we haven’t seen a significant event like we’re about to experience for some time.”

Efron said the impact of El Nino in Victoria had been most felt in spring: “We actually saw that September was our driest on record.”

Other climate factors were impacting the summer weather, including the southern annular mode, Efron added.

“[That] is producing these really humid and unstable conditions across the state, and that’s combined with sea surface temperatures well above average across the Tasman Sea,” he said.

“Everyone would have noticed the humidity, and I think we’re likely to see that continuing through the rest of this month.”

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