What would all-out war in the Middle East look like?

Almost 50 years to the day after the outbreak of the Yom Kippur War, Israel has once again been hit hard by a surprise attack.

This time, instead of the Egyptian and Syrian armies, it was the radical Islamist Hamas, the de facto rulers of the sealed-off Gaza Strip, which catapulted the Israeli-Palestinian conflict back into the centre of world attention in the most brutal way imaginable.

Palestinians sit outside their house following Israeli airstrikes in Rafah refugee camp, southern Gaza Strip, on Thursday.Credit: AP

The tremors from Hamas’ attack and Israel’s military response are now being felt far beyond their borders, with fears across the Middle East that the region will become mired in a broader war that could draw in Palestinians in the West Bank and Jordan, Egypt (which shares a border with Gaza), Lebanon’s Hezbollah, militant groups in Syria and their patron Iran.

Gulf Arab countries also fear their domestic security will be affected by cascading violence.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken, who on Thursday warned other regional actors not to “take advantage” of the crisis to attack Israel, has also asked Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to take steps to avoid civilian casualties. Netanyahu’s newly formed unity government is widely expected to launch a ground invasion into the Gaza Strip in the coming days.

“Israel has the right, indeed the obligation, to defend itself and to ensure that this never happens again,” Blinken said, referring to the deadly incursion Hamas mounted from Gaza at the weekend, which killed more than 1000 Israeli men, women, children and soldiers.

But he added: “How Israel does this matters. We democracies distinguish ourselves from terrorists by striving for a different standard … That’s why it’s so important to take every possible precaution to avoid harming civilians.”

Israel this week ordered a complete siege of Gaza – which is home to 2.3 million people – by cutting off water, food and fuel. Gaza authorities have said more than 1400 Palestinians, mainly civilians including children, have been killed and over 6000 wounded as the result of Israeli air strikes.

In the immediate aftermath of the Hamas terror attacks, divisions in regional perceptions have clearly emerged. The United Arab Emirates and Bahrain criticised Hamas, mourned the loss of life on both sides and encouraged support for dialogue.

Saudi Arabia highlighted the Israeli occupation of Palestinian territory, but also encouraged de-escalation and the protection of civilian life.

Qatar, Kuwait and Oman criticised Israel for violations of international law and Palestinian rights. Egypt, which has already experienced instability on its border with Gaza, has expressed support for a just peace and a Palestinian state.

Marcus Schneider, who heads the German-based Friedrich-Ebert-Stiftung regional project for peace and security in the Middle East, says in the worst-case scenario, Israel faces a war on several fronts.

But he cast some doubts on the idea the Hamas attack was in close coordination with Iran. The need for secrecy to maintain the element of surprise argues against that, said Schneider.

“Hamas has always acted independently, and despite the current support from Tehran, there have been and are many ups and downs in relations between the Islamic Republic and the Palestinian terrorist organisation,” he said, adding that any coordinated planning would likely have included a simultaneous strike by Hezbollah on the northern front.

Israeli tanks head towards the Gaza Strip border in southern Israel.Credit: AP

“Hezbollah, however, is highly armed but, in the view of many observers, not yet ready for the big war when taking into account the wounds caused by its operations in Syria.

“However, the possible entry into the war by the Lebanese militia is currently the very central element that would turn a territorially limited Gaza conflict into a regional conflagration.”

Schneider said Israel is prepared for a two-front war and has rapidly moved troops and equipment to the Galilee. There have already been artillery exchanges across the Israel-Lebanon frontier, although both sides appear so far to be attempting to contain the hostilities.

While Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah may not yet have made a final decision, Schneider said, once the ground offensive in Gaza begins the “pressure to provide Islamist solidarity to the ‘brethren’ in Palestine will increase exponentially”.

Schneider said that should the de facto destruction of Hamas as a military and political factor become apparent, this could once again influence the calculations in Lebanon.

The Israel Defence Forces said on Thursday they had dropped 6000 bombs on more than 3600 targets in Gaza, which is controlled by Hamas. Syrian state television also reported that Israel had struck the country’s two main airports, in the capital Damascus and the northern city of Aleppo. The attacks were not immediately confirmed by the Israeli military.

Israel rarely acknowledges or discusses attacks it conducts in Syria. But it has carried out hundreds of strikes inside government-controlled regions in recent years, often targeting installations it says are tied to Iran’s Revolutionary Guards and allied militia groups.

Saudi Arabia’s Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed the conflict by phone with President Ebrahim Raisi of Iran, in what Riyadh depicted as an effort to prevent the Israel-Hamas war from spreading.

It was the first such contact between the Middle East’s Sunni and Shia heavyweights for years.
Prince Mohammed, whose call with Raisi came after recent efforts to normalise relations with Israel, said the kingdom “was reaching out to all international and regional sides to end the current escalation”, according to the Saudi state news agency.

Raisi said Iran and Saudi Arabia, “as two key players [in the region], should defend the Muslim and oppressed nation of Palestine at this critical time”, according to a readout by Tehran.

Blinken will travel to Jordan, Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Egypt and Qatar in the coming days to press those countries to help contain the conflict and “use their leverage with Hamas to immediately and unconditionally release the hostages”.

Tensions are also rising in the occupied West Bank, where authorities say about 30 Palestinians have been killed in recent days.

Nicholas Blanford, a Beirut-based non-resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Middle East Programs, said if war broke out with Hezbollah, Israel would have to commit a sizeable number of ground forces for an incursion deep into Lebanon at the inevitable cost of high combat casualties.

He said with the unprecedented and deadly Hamas assault on southern Israel and Israel’s punishing response on Gaza, the Arab-Israeli conflict has entered “uncharted, unpredictable, and extremely dangerous waters”.

“Waging major air and ground offensives in Gaza and Lebanon simultaneously would be a tough call for the Israeli government, especially as it would not be confined to just Lebanon and Israel,” Blanford said.

“A war with Hezbollah would turn regional with the Syria front opening up and the possibility of attacks from Iraq, Yemen, and even Iran.”

Paul Salem, the chief executive of the Middle East Institute, said the US and other powers should work to avoid a widening of the conflict and try to bring this latest round of Gaza-Israeli fighting to a close.

He said when Israel ends its operations in Gaza, Hamas would likely still be standing, and that Israel and Hamas will have to enter into negotiations to deal with a large-scale prisoner exchange and agree on new security arrangements along the Israel-Gaza border.

“In the meantime, thousands more will die, and hundreds of thousands of civilians will be caught in the crossfire and require intense humanitarian assistance,” Salem said.

“After the mourning and stock-taking, there needs to be a serious push to resume peace efforts between Israelis and Palestinians, and this time with the participation of Arab countries that also want to see a more peaceful Middle East with a just resolution of the Israel-Palestine issue.”

Both the United States and Britain have announced they are sending warships and aircraft to help Israel in a major show of support following the Hamas terror attacks.

Blinken says the move, which Hezbollah sees as a threat to join in retaliation if it opens a second front, was the US making its intent “very clear” to deter “anyone contemplating any further aggression against Israel”.

On Thursday, he added: “The US has Israel’s back.”

The Morning Edition newsletter is our guide to the day’s most important and interesting stories, analysis and insights. Sign up here.