Labor MPs urge party to contest Warrandyte byelection

Labor MPs are pressuring their party to contest the Warrandyte byelection, the Greens have entered the race and minor conservative parties are weighing up whether to deny the Liberal Party crucial preferences.

An exclusive survey conducted by Resolve Strategic for The Age puts Labor’s primary vote 15 points clear of the opposition statewide due to a dramatic drop in support for the Victorian Liberals, who recorded a primary vote of just 23 per cent despite the Andrews government’s tough budget.

Liberal MP Ryan Smith is resigning from politics.Credit: ABC

Labor minister Ben Carroll said on Thursday his colleagues would “no doubt” be having a close look at the polling while the party considered whether to field a candidate in Warrandyte.

Four Labor MPs, speaking to The Age on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal party matters, reported widespread support from branch members and backbench MPs to run in the byelection, which must be held by September.

But a senior Labor source said the party wouldn’t decide before the Liberal Party conducted its preselection on Sunday.

Labor conducted its own research in the seat late last week, and those results, the Liberal candidate and financial constraints will help determine whether the government chases an electorate that has been in Liberal hands since 1988.

Retiring Warrandyte MP Ryan Smith last year received a healthy 47 per cent of primary votes, and retained the seat in the November election with a 4.2 per cent margin off the back of preference flows.

Family First, which assisted Smith’s win with 4 per cent of the primary vote, will run a candidate. The Libertarians Party, formerly the Liberal Democrats, have no plans to contest. One Nation and the United Australia Party are still considering their options.

UAP Senator Ralph Babet said he and the party executive would have more to say once the byelection was officially called.

“The Andrews government have created a mess, but they are not solely to blame. The Liberal Party [is] weak, they lack leadership and conviction. Quite frankly, they are not a true opposition,” Babet said.

The Greens on Thursday confirmed the party would contest the outer suburban seat after attracting 11.7 per cent of first preference votes in November, which would boost Labor’s confidence.

Most of Warrandyte sits within the federal seat of Menzies, where Labor benefited from a 6 per cent swing at the May 2022 election, and which has been identified as a target by Prime Minister Anthony Albanese in the next federal election.

If Labor contests the seat, party officials estimate the cost of running a “serious campaign” would be $400,000, some of which will be returned through public funding administered by the Victorian electoral commission.

With the Liberals days away from selecting a candidate through a ballot of members, another senior Labor source told The Age the party’s national executive would be expected to select a candidate should the ALP contest the seat.

Nine candidates are vying for Liberal preselection and there is no clear frontrunner.

There is strong support for former Institute of Public Affairs executive director John Roskam, former Eltham candidate Jason McClintock and KPMG director Sarah Overton.

Champion rower and law student Antonietta di Cosmo, 22, and former Box Hill candidate Nicole Ta-Ei Werner – who has the support of federal La Trobe MP Jason Wood – are also well-liked.

Former Pakenham candidate David Farrelly, former Matthew Guy staffer Jemma Townson, former John Howard staffer Allison Troth and Manningham councillor Andrew Conlon are also in the running.

Opposition Leader John Pesutto has declared his preference for getting more women preselected, and on Wednesday acknowledged Warrandyte would be a “tough fight” needing the “strongest possible candidate”.

Meanwhile, long-serving federal Liberal MP Russell Broadbent will also endure a preselection challenge in coming months for his Gippsland seat of Monash.

Mary Aldred, a respected professional who is head of government relations for Asia Pacific at Fujitsu and the daughter of former federal MP Ken Aldred, confirmed she would seek preselection for Monash when nominations close on Monday.

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