Circuit-breaker or sinking ship: How Labor’s hopes fall on four heads

Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk’s cabinet reshuffle may be viewed as a circuit-breaker for a third-term government going through a rough patch, a chance to reset ahead of a state election still 17 months away.

Or maybe it’s a shuffling of the deck chairs on a sinking Titanic, as the state LNP opposition has claimed.

Either way, the looming reshuffle of Queensland ministerial roles will further focus talk of Labor’s future around its four current leading figures.

The balance of what we do and don’t know about Palaszczuk’s surprise plans for a new-look cabinet – expected to be revealed and sworn in on Thursday – is still largely speculative.

Without a formal announcement yet, this reporter and many others have been told by sources willing to speak – or who are even simply aware of the tightly held details – that Health Minister Yvette D’Ath and Attorney-General Shannon Fentiman will swap roles as part of broader changes.

Leeanne Enoch will lose her title of housing minister, which is set to be picked up in a promotion by up-and-comer Meaghan Scanlon, the current environment minister.

Enoch, a Quandamooka woman, will instead become the minister responsible for treaty. This will trigger more, still unclear changes.

D’Ath, Enoch and Youth Justice Minister Leanne Linard, who is also expected to be relocated, have some similarities – responsibility for areas that are under intense public scrutiny from elements of the community, the media and the opposition.

Fentiman’s situation is a little different. Viewed alongside Deputy Premier Steven Miles and Treasurer Cameron Dick as a potential future party leader, her swap to the health portfolio may enable her to prove herself further in a tough role.

Not that the attorney-general has been twiddling her thumbs either – Star’s casino scandals and reform of the state’s domestic violence response are just two major issues she’s had to contend with of late.

Elected in 2015, Fentiman also served as child safety minister across some tragic cases, which the LNP have been quick to point back to.

Senior Queensland government members Shannon Fentiman, Steven Miles, Annastacia Palaszczuk and Cameron Dick.

Both she and Miles belong to Labor’s Left faction – of which Miles is the most senior member – which encompasses the majority of the party’s state MPs. Dick and Palaszczuk top the rival Right faction. All four easily held their safe Labor seats in 2020.

During the pandemic, Miles often played an attack-dog role, with varying success, and has served across a range of portfolios, including health and environment, since his election among the class of 2015.

During his slightly longer stint as an MP, Dick has had similarly wide-ranging roles, including health and attorney-general, the latter under former premier Anna Bligh.

While Palaszczuk retains her party standing after unexpectedly leading from opposition to win government in 2015, any direct challenge is unlikely. Strict party rules make it even more so.

Yet after eight years as leader of a government that some have suggested needs a policy drive “reanimation”, and amid slipping polling figures, the question of who may step up to eventually fill the top job must be at the back of MPs’ minds.

The premier has previously said she intends to face voters at least once more, in 2024. As recently as February, she said to maintain stability, she was not planning to reshuffle her cabinet. Previous overhauls have largely been in response to ministers stood down or aside amid investigations.

Announcing a high-level 10-year reform vision for the health portfolio just this month, D’Ath told the room she was there “for the long haul”. Nine has reported she did not ask to leave the role.

Things can turn quickly in politics, for many reasons. This reshuffle and its ripples will give directional clues for one of the next twists.