By Clay Lucas and Sophie Aubrey
A highly touted flood alert system failed to deliver promised warnings during the Maribyrnong River flood disaster – leaving residents to flee as water rushed into their properties.
Melbourne Water’s system, installed in 2015, uses a series of gauges and modelling to trigger warnings and other actions from emergency services, but in October residents had to flee when the river peaked 1.8 metres higher than predicted the previous night.
Stan Lipski, whose Maribyrnong home flooded in October, has lived in the suburb most of his life and knows what the river is capable of.Credit: Jason South
The situation was worsened, a prominent State Emergency Service volunteer said, because her organisation was not properly resourced the day the deluge hit, despite repeated warnings earlier in the week that a massive flood could swamp the suburb of Maribyrnong.
On October 14, a fast-moving wall of muddy water engulfed Maribyrnong, hitting 525 homes and businesses. The floodwater affected another 81 properties in neighbouring Ascot Vale, Aberfeldie, Avondale Heights and Kensington.
Under Victoria’s emergency plans, Melbourne Water’s flood alerts and warnings are communicated by the Bureau of Meteorology and should trigger a cascade of actions from the SES to prepare the community, including phone messaging, street sirens, door-knocking and community meetings.
Besides an online Watch and Act alert and web information about a sandbag collection point, residents complain they had little warning before they were told to immediately evacuate as the river swallowed local streets.
October’s floodwater swamped the suburb of Maribyrnong. It was the worst flood on the river since 1974. Credit: Nine News
“They should have known,” said Stan Lipski, 72, who has lived in Maribyrnong for 60 years. “We lost everything.”
Melbourne Water’s Flood Integrated Decision Support System, rolled out in 2015, runs flood modelling based on data from 21 river and rain gauges along the river’s 1400-square-kilometre catchment, and rain forecasts.
In a video released when the system was established, then chief technology officer Geoff Purcell said it was “making Melbourne Water safer in terms of providing people with high-quality information about flooding, and faster in terms of providing that information in a more timely manner”.
The first flood watch for Melbourne was issued on October 11. It warned major flooding was likely in some Victorian catchments later that week, including the Maribyrnong River, and a Watch and Act alert was issued two days before the flood.
In December, SES chief officer of operations Tim Wiebusch revealed that Melbourne Water modelling was forecasting major flood levels at Maribyrnong on October 11 and 12, but on the day before the flood, the water authority downgraded its warning and predicted only a moderate flood.
At 8.24pm the night before the disaster, a warning was issued predicting a moderate flood peak of 2.4 metres. That was upgraded when an emergency major flood warning was issued online at 2.25am, with an expected peak above 2.9 metres at Maribyrnong.
The first time many residents in Maribyrnong learnt they would have to evacuate was via text messages sent at 4.25am and 6.01am.
The river ultimately peaked at 4.2 metres about midday – 1.8 metres higher than Melbourne Water predicted the night before.
A Melbourne Water inquiry into the flood, now underway, has sparked anger among Maribyrnong locals because its terms of reference specifically exclude reviewing the warning procedures. It will consider flood modelling.
Geoff Crapper was a hydrologist at Melbourne Water and its predecessor, the Melbourne Metropolitan Board of Works, for 31 years until 2003 and helped implement the river’s first warning system after floods in 1974.
The evening before last October’s the flood hit, Crapper monitored publicly available river flow data from Melbourne Water’s gauges and sent a message to Maribyrnong resident Jane Trewin voicing concern that the incoming flood was being “grossly underestimated” upstream.
“Melbourne Water failed one of its primary mission objectives to provide accurate information and flood warning on the calamitous flood threat,” he said.
Army dinghies patrol Navigator Street in Maribyrnong during the 1974 flood.Credit: John Hart, The Age
In a statement, Melbourne Water said October’s flood came after unprecedented rainfall and that factors including rapidly changing river flow rates, soil moisture and vegetation cover made prediction difficult.
“These multiple and dynamic variables mean that flood conditions can change quickly,” a spokesman said. He said the organisation’s inquiry would examine the adequacy of flood predictions.
The suburb of Maribyrnong has been hit by 14 major floods since records were first kept in 1891. But last year’s floods sparked outrage across Melbourne amid concerns a wall to protect Flemington racecourse from the river, built in 2007 by the Victoria Racing Club with support from the then Labor government and Melbourne Water, exacerbated flooding in nearby homes.
Honey Kemaneci, 65, lives on the riverfront on Chifley Drive with her sister and brother-in-law. They had no idea their home would flood until the 4.25am text, which they happened to be awake for.
Honey Kemaneci (right) and sister Shelley Ahmet, with galah Freddy, had no idea their home would flood on October 14.Credit: Jason South
Within an hour, the river began rushing over their lawn and driveway before entering their home, leaving them to wade in water in their living area.
Kemaneci’s 75-year-old sister, who has mobility issues due to arthritis, could not reach the second storey to escape the floodwater. The family had to be saved by an SES rescue boat.
“It came inside so fast,” Kemaneci said. “I thought we were going to die.”
The warnings given to residents in Maribyrnong stand in stark contrast to regional towns like Rochester and Echuca, which also flooded in October, but received several days’ notice.
An SES spokeswoman said 150 Maribyrnong homes were door-knocked on October 11 and residents who weren’t home were left a local flood guide and information on how to access warnings.
This is the only action the SES took on the ground to inform the community of a possible flood before October 14, and many residents who live in low-lying areas near the river told The Age they were not door-knocked, called or messaged before floodwater was almost upon them.
Faye Bendrups, who holds leading roles with the national and Victorian SES Volunteers Associations, said initial forecasts should have prompted stronger pre-emptive action from emergency services.
In 2011, community meetings held ahead of a flood that hit Maribyrnong informed residents on what to expect and how to prepare. During that event, the suburb got off relatively lightly: the river peaked at 2.2 metres, inundating a small number of properties including the public bar of the Anglers Tavern.
Bendrups, who volunteers with the local unit covering Maribyrnong, said crews were operating around the clock ahead of the 2011 flood.
In October last year, she said there was little sense of urgency before the flood and the unit was depleted, with just two four-wheel drive vehicles and one rescue boat because the others were redeployed or under repair. An SES spokeswoman confirmed a boat was moved to a neighbouring unit.
The local unit was first activated around 3am on October 14 to door-knock residents for evacuation.
“How effective is this action at the time of the actual flood?” said Bendrups, who believes residents and responders would much rather have had “advance warning and take action – even if nothing eventuated – than to have no warning and lose everything”.
An SES spokeswoman said volunteers from several units “did a tremendous job to complete 31 flood rescues safely and successfully”.
A review into Victoria’s 2011 floods, by former Victoria Police commissioner Neil Comrie, pointed to a trade-off between waiting for accurate predictions and issuing timely warnings.
“There is little value in a perfect forecast that is delivered after it is too late to initiate damage-reducing actions,” the report states.
A community petition was launched last week calling for improved flood mitigation and warnings, and has attracted more than 1500 signatures.
Victorian Opposition Leader John Pesutto said Maribyrnong residents hit by the flood didn’t get the early warning they deserved.
“Daniel Andrews and his government must take accountability for this serious failure and explain why local residents were so badly let down,” Pesutto said. “[The flood in] 1974 was the wake-up call and there is no excuse for finding ourselves in the same situation five decades later.”
Water Minister Harriet Shing on Friday met with flood-affected Maribyrnong residents. Her spokeswoman said “an independent review [was] being undertaken by Melbourne Water” and that the government would await the recommendations.
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