‘A significant negative’: Liberal Party election review finds Morrison ‘out of touch’

Scott Morrison and the Liberal Party were considered “out of touch” by voters at the May election, an internal review of the party has found that sheeted home the loss to a lack of policy agenda and crumbling support among professional women.

Compiled by Liberal senator Jane Hume and former party director Brian Loughnane, the review of this year’s election also revealed problems within the party’s state divisions, late or poor candidate selection, scandals and lack of diversity all contributed to the worst Liberal poll result since 1946.

Scott Morrison waves farewell to supporters after conceding defeat at the May 21 election.Credit: Getty

But it touches only lightly on policy issues fought during the campaign while admitting the Coalition had to combat a Labor Party “hungry” for victory.

The Coalition suffered a 5.7 per cent fall in its primary vote at the May 21 poll. The Liberal Party lost a string of metropolitan seats to Labor, the Greens and teal independents. It now holds just four of 44 inner-city electorates.

The review by Hume and Loughnane said a range of factors contributed to the heavy loss, but voters’ perception of Scott Morrison contributed substantially to the defeat.

“The prime minister’s standing with voters deteriorated significantly through 2021 to become a significant negative. The prime minister and the party were seen as ‘out of touch’,” they found.

“The leadership choice between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese became the most influential driver of voting intention during the campaign period.”

The Liberal Party’s election review on:

• Scott Morrison:  “The leadership choice between Scott Morrison and Anthony Albanese became the most influential driver of voting intention during the campaign period.” 
• The result: “Put simply, by the time of the election the Coalition had lost control of its brand, with the parties and their leaders being defined in the public’s mind by our opponents.” 
• The pandemic and women: “[There were] Perceptions that the government and the prime minister (in particular) had not adequately managed the response to the pandemic (despite Australia’s internationally leading position in responding) and, very importantly, that the prime minister was not attuned to the concerns of women and was unresponsive to issues of importance to them.” 
• The Teals:  “Not a collection of independent entities. They are, by any meaningful interpretation of the term, a political party and should be considered by the electoral authorities as such.” 
• Policy: “The most significant policy announcement, on homeownership, was announced in the last week of the campaign. The sense the government had ‘run its race’ was allowed to develop as a result.”

Despite noting Morrison’s standing with voters, he is named just twice in the entire report. By contrast, the ALP’s review of this year’s election named Morrison on 91 separate occasions.

The review noted that there was a loss of “political capital” in the 12 months leading up to the election and an “accumulation of negative issues”.

These included a loss of political focus due to the demands of dealing with the Covid pandemic, allegations of poor treatment of women, the length of time the party had been in office and problems with its state divisions.

The lack of an agenda for a prospective fourth term in office was a key issue.

“The Coalition’s agenda for a fourth term appeared to be limited and unclear to the electorate. The most significant policy announcement, on home ownership, was announced in the last week of the campaign,” it found.

“The sense the government had ‘run its race’ was allowed to develop as a result. Voters, including those acknowledging the government’s effective performance in managing the pandemic, did not have a clear view of the Coalition’s priorities for another term.”

Hume and Loughnane noted the collapse in support for the Liberal Party among women.

They said the party now held three of the 30 seats with high numbers of female professional voters. The Liberals had gone to the election holding half of these electorates.

In marginal seats, women aged between 35 and 54 were most likely to shift their support away from the Liberal Party.

They found there were perceptions Morrison was “not attuned” to the concerns of women and failed to respond to issues of importance to them.

“It is clear from the party’s research and post-election analysis that the party’s standing with women was an important factor in the party’s defeat,” they found.

“The Liberal Party is now at a point where it must address diversity in its selection of
candidates and office holders.”

Scott Morrison accidentally takes down Luca Fauvette at a soccer club in Devonport on May 18.Credit: James Brickwood

Rather than adopt the Labor Party’s quota system, the review said the party needed to set a target of 50 per cent female representation within 10 years or three electoral terms.

Long-time Liberal Party staffer Tony Barry, who is now corporate affairs chief for pollsters Redbridge, said the review was an honest assessment of the defeat “because whilst Scott Morrison’s character was unmistakably a contributing factor in the result, the collapse in Liberal support goes much deeper than a personality contest”.

The review adequately captured the tactical and cyclical factors that contributed to Morrison’s loss, he said, “but doesn’t properly address the structural changes in the vote or a deeper-values disconnect the Party has, particularly with women, Millennials and Gen X”.

“Middle Australia is increasingly socially progressive but economically anxious, so they don’t find culture wars personally relevant. The Liberal Party trashed its own economic management brand in the last term and now needs to rebuild its equity to differentiate from Labor.”

Barry added that some federal MPs were fortunate not to be identified for their behaviour, including self-indulgent public commentary and for having a “corrosive influence on state divisions”, in a clear reference to the factional warfare in New South Wales in the lead up to the poll.

The report also found diversity issues affected the party’s standing with non-English speaking migrant communities, particularly the growing ethnic Chinese population.

In the top 15 seats by Chinese ancestry the swing against the Liberal Party was 6.6 per cent compared to 3.7 per cent in other seats.

The review noted the party was also under-performing among other ethnic sectors, urging the entire Liberal parliamentary team had to work is building relationships with the broader migrant community.

Candidate selection, particularly the late pre-selection of potential MPs in some parts of the country, was highlighted as a problem. The review, however, does not mention by name some of the candidates who came under fire during the election, including Katherine Deves, who stood for the seat of Warringah against independent Zali Steggall.

A Liberal Party spokesperson declined to offer more comments on the report beyond a statement from federal president John Olsen who said the review had made “frank assessments” about how the party can do better in the future.

“The federal executive will carefully consider the review and its recommendations, with a clear focus on making our party stronger and returning to government,” Olsen said.

The report’s 49 recommendations have now gone to the Liberal Party’s federal executive.

With James Massola

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