Queensland’s proposed coal mines would double emissions, report suggests

Queensland’s proposed coal mines would produce enough direct and indirect greenhouse gas emissions to effectively double the figures now reported annually to the federal government, according to new analysis from environment group Lock the Gate Alliance.

Such an increase would make the state’s target to reduce emissions by 30 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030 “effectively impossible”, the report, submitted as part of consultation on a draft resource industry development plan, states.

Stage two of the New Acland coal mine, near Oakey in the Darling Downs, was opened in 2007.Credit: Glenn Hunt

While closer major party lines have so-far not generated the headlines seen before the last federal election, where federal Labor’s drubbing in Queensland was attributed in part to its handling of the Adani mine issue, the topic of coal mining’s future remains a live issue in the state.

The new report used publicly available data provided by companies behind the 34 most plausible proposed Queensland coal projects or expansions, listed by the federal office of the chief economist, to determine potential future scope one and two emissions.

Such greenhouse gasses feature waste elements including released methane, emissions from on-site energy generation and electricity drawn from the grid to power mining activity. They exclude scope three emissions from burning the coal produced by the mines.

If the 34 projects proceeded to production at their intended capacity and lifespan, more than an additional 21.4 million tonnes of scope one and two emissions would be added to the state’s annual tally – a figure greater than that reported from existing mines in 2019 and equal to all emissions from the state’s agriculture industry that year.

The entirety of the projects’ planned production would add a total of more than 855.8 million tonnes of equivalent carbon dioxide to the earth’s atmosphere – 70 per cent more than Australia’s total greenhouse gas emissions in the year to September.

The report also pointed to recent research showing significant underestimation of methane released from the state’s coal-mining activity.

Its recommendations include better measurement of emissions released by the sector, along with a specific sector-wide cap for Queensland coal production to ensure others are not forced to pick up any slack.

“Industries like transport and agriculture should not be forced to make even deeper cuts to their emissions by 2030 because the Queensland government is allowing the coal sector to drastically increase its emissions,” the alliance’s national co-ordinator Carmel Flint said.

Queensland aims to reach net-zero emissions by 2050, a target also set by the federal government last year.

Environment Minister Meaghan Scanlon said the state had invested close to $10 billion in renewable energy since coming to power in 2015, including a $1.5 billion top-up of its investment fund last year, with such efforts “driving down emissions and creating jobs”.

Ms Scanlon said the draft Queensland Resource Industry Development Plan had proposed that industry would be “required to develop decarbonisation plans”.

“That includes considering requiring applicants to reduce emissions for any new or amended authorities, the preparation of abatement plans to demonstrate the transition to net-zero emissions and regular reporting,” she said.

Griffith University emeritus professor Ian Lowe, a past president of the Australian Conservation Foundation, believed Labor and the Coalition hoped the complex question of how to phase down the reliance on fossil fuels to help ease the effects of climate change was one that would “just go away”.

Professor Lowe, who reviewed Lock the Gate’s report, said whoever formed government after the May election would need to instead seriously accept the task and look to a plan similar to that of the German government.

“If an industry is being phased out, in the public interest, then the public has a responsibility to the workers and the communities that depend on those industries,” he said.

Several Queensland coal seats are likely to again play key roles in the upcoming election, with Coalition incumbents retiring in Dawson and Flynn, and Labor’s sights previously set on others beyond Brisbane and its outer suburbs, too.

At a state level, the LNP has been critical of the Palaszczuk Labor government’s so-far reluctance to green-light a controversial expansion of the New Acland coal mine conditionally recommended for approval by the Land Court in December. The government granted leases for the billion-dollar Olive Downs mine ahead of the 2020 state election.

Modelling produced by the Morrison government last month warned of significant job losses under any ban on new coal and gas projects in Queensland. Later analysis by the Grattan Institute suggested the figure of 53,000 lost jobs would be closer to 4400.

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