‘The horse has bolted’: Experts warn two-week lockdown may not be enough

An explosion of COVID-19 has forced Sydney into a two-week lockdown with the rest of the state on high alert for further transmission as health experts warned it could take longer than a fortnight to bring the highly contagious outbreak under control.

As the Delta strain of the virus continues to take hold across the city, residents of greater Sydney, the Blue Mountains, Central Coast and Wollongong have been issued strict stay-at-home orders.

However, leading epidemiologists warned the widespread lockdown would likely extend beyond two weeks, arguing for the NSW government waited days too long to take decisive action.

The CBD was deserted on Saturday on the first day of a lockdown that has now been extended to all of Greater Sydney.Credit: Getty Images

NSW Premier Gladys Berejiklian convened an urgent meeting of her crisis cabinet on Saturday, where NSW Chief Health Officer Kerry Chant recommended a two-week lockdown in a bid to contain the spread.

“A few days ago I said this was the scariest time that I felt since the pandemic started and that’s proven to be the case,” Ms Berejiklian said on Saturday.

Under the orders, people must stay at home unless it is for one of the four main essential reasons: shopping for essential goods, medical or compassionate needs, outdoor exercise in groups of 10 or less and essential work or education.

NSW Police patrol Bondi Beach as the city goes into a 14-day lockdown. Credit: James Alcock

Community sport will be prohibited and weddings from Monday will be cancelled. Funerals will be limited to one person per four square metres, capped at 100 people, and masks compulsory indoors.

Anyone in regional NSW who has been in Greater Sydney since June 21 is also required to isolate at home for 14 days, with authorities desperate to avoid seeding in regional communities.

“We’re asking you to stay at home for 14 days since you’ve left that area, and the reason for that is we want to make sure that you minimise your transmission risk to anyone else,” Dr Chant said.

Restrictions are also imposed on regional NSW, with no more than five visitors allowed in homes, 50 per cent capacity at outdoor events, mandatory indoor mask-wearing and the one person per four square metres rule back for all indoor and outdoor settings.

There were 29 new cases in the 24 hours to 8pm Friday, taking the total number in the Bondi cluster to 80, with 20 of those associated with a birthday party in West Hoxton Park. Two cases remain under investigation, including a child who attends St Charles’ Catholic Primary School in Waverley.

Premier Gladys Berejiklian says her worst fears have been realised amid an explosion of COVID-19 cases.Credit: Jacky Ghossein

In a change Ms Berejiklian said was designed to reduce confusion about the way the daily numbers were reported, NSW Health did not reveal how many cases were recorded after the 8pm cut-off on Friday.

Meanwhile, NSW Police Commissioner Mick Fuller said there was insufficient evidence to establish whether the eastern suburbs driver at the centre of the outbreak had breached public health orders.

In a statement on Saturday, Commissioner Fuller said that neither the limousine driver who was transporting international air crew nor his employer would be charged.

On Saturday night New Zealand suspended quarantine-free travel from Australia for three days.

Health Minister Brad Hazzard said the Delta variant was “proving to be a very formidable foe”.

“No matter what defensive steps we’re taking at the moment, the virus seems to understand how to counter-attack different locations and that’s causing us a high level of concern,” Mr Hazzard said.

He said seeing the number of cases written on a board in the NSW Health conference room on Saturday morning gave a real sense of “the urgency that we’re facing.”

Mr Hazzard also foreshadowed a health order which will set out to employers a requirement that employees should work from home if possible.

Epidemiologist and World Health Organisation adviser Mary-Louise McLaws said a lockdown should have been introduced just days into the outbreak, due to the known infectiousness of the strain.

“The horse has bolted, but the horse started bolting last week,” Professor McLaws said.

Clinical epidemiologist Nancy Baxter said it was a mistake not to introduce a wider lockdown early last week and the city would be “lucky” if it only endured stay-at-home orders until July 9.

The head of the Melbourne School of Population and Global Health said the lockdown wouldn’t be “short and sharp ... it’s going to be a gradual release of lockdown”.

Early NSW Treasury estimates show the lockdown will see the state’s economy take a hit of $850 million a week, with Treasurer Dominic Perrottet working on a rescue package for businesses. Mr Perrottet expects to be able to present the detail within days.

“The people of NSW have shown themselves to be very resilient over the past 18 months and we will get through this latest challenge together and come out the other side stronger,” he said.

In a video message from the Lodge in Canberra, where he is completing his own period of isolation, Prime Minister Scott Morrison said NSW had hoped to avoid a lockdown.

“This is a necessary decision that has been taken by the NSW government, a decision that they have not rushed to, that they’ve sought to prevent,” he said. “But at the end of the day, this is what’s necessary to stay on top of this latest outbreak.”

Mr Morrison said $500 Commonwealth disaster recovery payments would be available for Sydneysiders from July 1.

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