How much trouble Jackie Trad is in this election and how she plans to fight

Home to a string of new high-rise apartments, the world-famous Gabba and South Bank Parklands, Anna Bligh's old safe Labor seat is the Brisbane electorate to watch at the October state election.

South Brisbane, geographically the smallest electorate in the state, has been held by former deputy premier Jackie Trad since 2012.

Jackie Trad in 2015, just weeks after she became deputy premier. Credit: Robert Shakespeare

In 2017, she fended off Greens candidate Amy MacMahon, despite a 10.2 per cent swing against Labor.

Trad won the seat with just 500 more first-preference votes than her Greens rival and holds the seat on a 3.6 per cent margin, secured because the Liberal National Party preferenced Labor before the Greens.

LNP preferences saved Trad at the last election, but this time around, she will be behind the Greens on the opposition's how-to-vote cards.

Labor has held the seat since 1977, but it is at serious risk of falling into the hands of the Greens if voting trends at the recent federal and council elections are repeated in October.

At last year's federal election, the Greens won booths at Woolloongabba, West End and South Brisbane.

Councillor Jonathan Sri secured the most votes at every polling booth in his ward at the March council elections, while the Greens saw a strong swing towards them in multiple inner-city wards.

Trad is facing an uphill battle and MacMahon is determined to finish the job this time, so what sort of chance does the former deputy premier have and how does she plan to win?

Leading from the Left

Trad was the first person in her family to go to university. She served as an adviser to former premier Bligh for years and took up her mantle as the state's most influential Left faction leader.

The second-generation Lebanese migrant served as Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's deputy from 2015 until she resigned from the frontbench in May after the state's corruption watchdog launched an investigation into her alleged interference in the selection of a school principal in her electorate.

The Crime and Corruption Commission cleared her of wrongdoing in the recruitment process that went "off the rails".

It was the second time Ms Trad was referred to the CCC in the past year. The first time was over the controversial purchase of a Woolloongabba house.

The CCC said it found no evidence that supported a reasonable suspicion of corrupt conduct but made a series of recommendations including making it a criminal offence to not declare a conflict of interest that could, or may, interfere with ministerial duties.

Despite being cleared by the watchdog twice, both investigations left her with deep political scars.

Jackie Trad was Premier Annastacia Palaszczuk's deputy for years. Credit: Jackie Trad/Facebook

When asked if she could retain her seat at the state election, Trad said: "I can win South Brisbane because I know the people of South Brisbane want a strong representative, someone who is absolutely focused on them and responsible for ensuring their lives are better."

"The only path to winning South Brisbane is campaigning hard for South Brisbane," she said.

"I have always campaigned hard. This has been my life-long community, it is a community that I am raising my own children in and I feel very passionate about it.

"That's why I have been a very strong advocate for what is needed."

The Greens' Amy MacMahon came very close to snatching South Brisbane off Jackie Trad in 2017. Credit: Alex Ellinghausen

MacMahon has a PhD in climate change adaptation in Bangladesh and has worked as a teacher, carer and community worker.

She went to high school in the electorate and rents a share house in East Brisbane.

Contentious issues have been mounting in the smallest electorate in the state ahead of the election.

Among them are the proposed partial demolition of the heritage-listed Broadway Hotel, rampant development, chock-a-block roads and the construction of major public transport infrastructure.

In the thick of it over density

Like other inner-city suburban areas, South Brisbane has suffered from the apartment boom several years ago that pushed down prices and left a glut of apartments unsold or untenanted.

The density debate has sparked more discussion about building standards and public open spaces, and what kind of Brisbane residents want in the future.

Brisbane: Too many apartments, too few buyers.Credit:

Trad says the community has "borne the brunt of significant development".

"I think it's fair to say that the investment in infrastructure to support that population growth hasn't been at pace; essentially, investment hasn't kept up with the population growth," she said.

She says that has manifested in two ways: heavy traffic and a lack of green space.

"So that's been a real struggle," Trad says.

MacMahon agrees.

"Overdevelopment is still a really big issue: lots of new towers [are] going in across the electorate and we are seeing a lot of pressure on local infrastructure," she said.

"South Brisbane is struggling with the lack of public infrastructure, [such as] transport, green space and community facilities."

Plans, trains and automobiles

Traffic around South Brisbane can be a nightmare, but two major public transport projects are under way to ease the flow on roads.

The state government's $5.7 billion Cross River Rail, at one point overseen by Trad, has begun tunnelling and promises to move thousands of commuters off the road and onto trains.

Brisbane City Council's Brisbane Metro, which recently skyrocketed in cost from $944 million to $1.2 billion, caused controversy over a planned underground station at the Cultural Centre for large electric buses.

But after a year's stand-off between the council and the state over the size, location and cost of the planned station, the council backed down and announced it would defer construction for up to 10 years.

Instead, the Cultural Centre bus terminal will be upgraded at the street level to cope with increasing traffic.

Trad supported the decision to hold off on major development of the site "until a proper or final design could be agreed to between the state and council".

"I think, get the project started – there are other parts of the Metro route that can start and get those jobs generated," she said.

Cross River Rail's Woolloongabba site will be transformed. Credit: Tony Moore

"I think that we do need more public transport and I think there is an opportunity here for us to improve some of the amenity, particularly if we want to see people use public transport more."

MacMahon said that at the end of the day, residents wanted cheaper and more-frequent services.

"Ultimately, we would be happy to see any improvements to public transport because we know the connectivity in the neighbourhood is really poor," she said.

Woolloongabba residents will be able to catch a train into the heart of the CBD from a new underground station being built opposite the Gabba, as part of the Cross River Rail.

Public consultation is under way about how the land above the station could be developed.

MacMahon wants to see the space transformed into a park.

"Labor are looking to sell off the 5.5-hectare Woolloongabba Cross River Rail site to developers for huge towers but Woolloongabba desperately needs a public park," she said.

"The Cross River Rail site is a huge opportunity for the community to have some of the things they really need."

Trad would like the space split into a park and affordable housing for "key workers" such as police, nurses and teachers.

"These are the workers who we have relied on during the COVID shutdown, public sector workers who have been priced out of the inner city," she said.

"I would like to see a great outcome for the community, which includes a lot of green space, but I think the state has an obligation to people who are in housing distress.

"Those key public sector workers - police, nurses, teachers - I think we need to do more to make sure they have got housing options in the inner city, where their jobs are."

Broadway in the spotlight

Just up the road from the new underground station sits a burnt-out 1880s-era hotel that has been the centre of an ongoing debate involving the council, the state and the owner over its future.

Multiple fires gutted the heritage-listed Broadway Hotel, and left it an unstable shell.

While the state and the council have issued enforcement orders preventing its demolition, the owner recently lodged a development application with the council requesting approval to demolish sections of the site's outbuildings.

Both the state and the council must sign off on any demolition, which proposes to remove wings added later to the original heritage building, World War II bunkers and other structures.

Images of the derelict Broadway Hotel after the September 2018 fire. Credit: Jesse Harrison

The assessment for the application, however, was paused until November – well after the election – at the owner's request.

MacMahon believes the state government should be doing more to protect the building.

"I know a lot of community members are really disappointed about this – it is obvious that both the state and council heritage protections are both completely insufficient," she said.

"To my mind, the only way we are going to be able to protect the Broadway Hotel is to bring it into public hands and restore the building.

"I think the owner has had many years to look after this building and the community are obviously really unhappy with what has gone on but they are also unhappy with the council and state government response."

The derelict hotel was an old watering hole for Trad in her youth.

"The Broadway Hotel is an iconic, gothic infrastructure that we do not see a lot of in Brisbane," she said.

"I think it is really important that we preserve the heritage features of the hotel, without doubt.

"I think both jurisdictions [council and state] are working very hard to protect this important building – it is really up to the person who owns it to make a contribution."

The hotel is owned by Dr Malcolm Nyst, who appealed the last of a string of enforcement notices issued by the council last year.

When asked if she thought the state should resume the site, Trad said: "Let's be clear, this is a site owned by a developer, someone who does have the resources to invest in this historic building."

"The site is owned by someone with the financial means to manage it appropriately and they should really get on and do it, quite frankly," she said.

Both MacMahon and Trad flagged the same three key issues affecting the South Brisbane electorate: lack of green space, congestion and infrastructure not keeping pace with development.

So what is the difference between the two?

"She can't deliver," Trad said.

"She can talk about it but she can not deliver anything – that is the difference between us."

Macmahon said: "One of the big distinctions is that at the end of the day it was Jackie Trad and Labor who wrote the Queensland Planning Act, which gives developers so many loopholes and gives residents so little power."

"What we have seen is Labor pretending that they are fighting against bad council decisions when, ultimately, they are the architects of this system that has allowed overdevelopment to spread in our neighbourhood," she said.

With both candidates campaigning on the same issues, the two-way tussle will come down to this.

Whom do voters trust to get things done?