In a packed community hall, Bill Shorten demonstrates his advantage over Malcolm Turnbull

Bill Shorten is in full flight by the time he gets his 10th question from a crowd of voters in one of the most marginal electorates in the country. He has already warmed up the audience with answers on wage theft, the banks and the cost of energy before he gets a question on technical education and jobs.

It adds a little more heat to the packed community hall. The opposition leader’s past life as a union organiser is obvious in his tirade about the money wasted on private colleges and the rorts in vocational education.

Never mind that Labor launched some of the “reforms” that allowed private operators to lump taxpayers with student debts that will never be repaid. That does not even come up. In this hall, on this night, Shorten is in his element and the audience has nothing but applause.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten speaks at a community forum in Riverwood.Credit: Wolter Peeters

“We will properly invest in TAFE and we’ve got a couple of basic rules I can tell you now,” Shorten tells his audience.

“At least two in every three Commonwealth taxpayer dollars that go into vocational education must go to TAFE.

“The other rule is that if there is a Commonwealth project, one in every 10 people working on those jobs must be an apprentice – so we’re going to put some sugar on the table for small businesses to employ apprentices.”

This is Riverwood, a suburb in Sydney's south-west where unemployment is 9.5 per cent and the median household income is roughly $1000 a week – which means $425 less than the national median. That is a challenge for local Liberal member David Coleman, who holds this seat by just 1.36 per cent.

On the night Shorten is speaking in Riverwood, Turnbull is at the Sydney Opera House to welcome French President Emmanuel Macron. It's another sign of the way the workload of a prime minister restricts time for electioneering.

The Labor candidate, Chris Gambian, is a local boy who is married with two daughters and has spent years as a Financial Sector Union official challenging the big banks. Labor believes that if it wins this seat, it will win government.

Shorten draws the connection between job prospects, training and the influx of foreign workers who come in on skilled worker visas.

“The other thing we’re saying is that if you have to bring in a foreign guest worker for a period of time and you’ve demonstrated you’ve searched the local market, we’re going to increase what they charge on the visa and spend that in training our own,” he says.

“There is no excuse why over three or four years we should ever have a skill shortage in anything in this country. And if there is one, we’re going to ask the employers to help pay to train so we don’t have one again in three or four years’ time.”

A man holds a 'Bill for PM' sign. Credit: Wolter Peeters

That brings sustained applause. The 350 people in the Riverwood Community Hall are not throwing flowers at Shorten’s feet. The only ones standing to applaud are those who turned up too late to get a seat. But the audience is skewed heavily toward Labor supporters and there is no doubt they like what they hear.

The government often sneers at Shorten as a union pawn who is not fit to lead, but it has consistently underestimated the power of his message about unfairness and inequality.

Yes, he still addresses a crowd like a union organiser. But he knows how to respond to the anxieties of the electorate. He is match-fit for an election campaign.

Could Malcolm Turnbull address the same audience? In a safe Liberal electorate he would be hectored by Tony Abbott supporters thanks to the toxic divisions within his own party. In Labor territory he would have to contend with speakers from the unions and GetUp! who are eager to tear him down. His security detail would limit his options.

On the night Shorten is speaking in Riverwood, Turnbull is at the Sydney Opera House to welcome French President Emmanuel Macron. It's another sign of the way the workload of a prime minister restricts time for electioneering.

Voters listen to the Labor leader.Credit: Wolter Peeters

Shorten has an easier task: hear someone’s complaint, validate their message, blame the government and promise a solution. He is unburdened by the responsibilities that come with power.

These voters are making their frustrations known. Their questions are about aged care, public housing, school funding, unemployment, mental health services, school bullying, migration, the casualisation of the workforce and the way Donald Trump is dealing with the loss of manufacturing jobs in America.

“I don’t understand him,” Shorten says of Trump. It is a diplomatic answer compared to his verdict two years ago – that Trump was “barking mad” – but it is not the full story, either. Shorten is trying to tap into the same wave of disaffection that put Trump in power.

He may not understand Trump but he understands the forces that drive him.

“There is a problem in this country that there’s two classes of worker,” Shorten tells his audience.

“There’s the permanent worker – ideally well-paid, on a living wage. If you’ve got a permanent job and you’re well above the minimum wage, well, you’ve got your foot on the sticky paper of certainty. It’s easy to get a loan. It’s easy to form a relationship. You can make plans.

Opposition leader Bill Shorten.Credit: Wolter Peeters

“But one in every three Australian workers is a casual. Do you know 1.1 million of our fellow Australians records each month they’d like more hours of work?

“There will always be some casual work in an economy – that’s fair enough. But what that doesn’t excuse is not paying people properly. It doesn’t excuse the massive spread of labour hire to undercut permanent jobs. It doesn’t excuse wage theft. It doesn’t excuse not paying penalty rates on weekends.”

This message resonates. Shorten repudiates Trump on issues like migration and Muslims, but he is alive to the blue-collar frustrations far beyond Parliament House.

In an age of heavy television advertising and targeted social media campaigns, it is sobering to remember that the practice of politics still means standing up in a community hall to face the voters. It also means urging people to join the party and hand out leaflets at polling booths at the next election.

Much of this is about rallying the base. All the signs are that Turnbull cannot rally the base the way Shorten does.

The Riverwood event is Shorten’s 61st town hall meeting since Turnbull became prime minister, and he ends it by challenging the Liberal leader to front up before the same crowd. In other words, he ends the meeting with complete confidence that he has an edge over his rival with this audience. Whether it will win him the next election remains to be seen.