The comedy-drama film Anora has been named best picture at the annual Producer’s Guild of America awards, a key stepping stone to victory at next month’s Academy Awards.
Though the PGAs are, in international terms, a relatively unknown award, they have an almost uncanny knack of predicting Oscar winners. In the past decade, for example, they have matched “best picture” with the Oscars seven times.
The 10 films nominated for the best picture Oscar: ( top row from left) Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, and Dune: Part Two; (bottom row from left) Emilia Perez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance, and Wicked.Credit: AP
Anora, directed by Sean Baker, and starring a cast of relative unknowns, beat some of the strongest Oscar contenders this year for the win, including The Brutalist, which stars Adrien Brody, the papal thriller Conclave, the hit musical Wicked and the Spanish-language French musical crime drama Emilia Pérez.
In a busy weekend, the film also won best picture at the Critics Choice Awards and Baker won best director at the Directors Guild of America Awards. Such a triple win would seem to substantially sharpen the odds on Oscar night in favour of a best picture/best director double for Anora.
This year’s Oscar best picture nominees are Anora, The Brutalist, A Complete Unknown, Conclave, Dune: Part Two, Emilia Pérez, I’m Still Here, Nickel Boys, The Substance and Wicked. Until this weekend, The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez have dominated chatter.
While much of the urban mythology of predicting Oscar winners is focused on the Golden Globes, in truth the PGAs have a better track record.
Director Sean Baker with Anora star Mikey Madison at the Critics Choice Awards. The film also scored key wins at the Producers Guild Awards and the Directors Guild Awards.Credit: AP
That is mainly because the PGAs, like the other industry guild awards, has a membership which more accurately reflects the membership of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences, whose members vote for the Oscars.
In the past decade, the PGAs and the Oscars have deviated only three times: in 2016 (when the PGAs picked The Big Short vs the Oscar for Spotlight), 2017 (La La Land vs Moonlight) and 2020 (1917 vs Nomadland).
Every year, award season pits a field of leading films in a race that begins in December, with the Gotham awards and the National Board of Review awards, and ends with the Oscars in March.
But this season, it got off to an uncertain start. The Gothams gave their best picture award to A Different Man, while the National Board of Review named Wicked the year’s best film. In both cases, Anora was in competition.
Demi Moore (left) chats with Ariana Grande at the Critics Choice Awards in Los Angeles.Credit: AP
In January, the Golden Globes crowned The Brutalist (drama) and Emilia Pérez (musical/comedy) as the year’s best films. Again, Anora was in competition. It was not until this weekend that Anora, with a triple win, became a serious contender.
The other major winners at this year’s PGAs: Super/Man: The Christopher Reeve Story (outstanding documentary), The Wild Robot (outstanding animated feature film), Shōgun (outstanding television drama), Hacks (outstanding television comedy) and Baby Reindeer (outstanding limited series).
The 2025 Oscars will screen on the Seven Network on Monday, March 3 at 11am.
A Near Perfect Match: The PGAs vs the Oscars
2015: Birdman wins both PGA and the Oscar
2016: The Big Short (PGA), Spotlight (Oscar)
2017: La La Land (PGA), Moonlight (Oscar)
2018: The Shape of Water wins both PGA and the Oscar
2019: Green Book wins both PGA and the Oscar
2020: 1917 (PGA), Parasite (Oscar)
2021: Nomadland wins both PGA and the Oscar
2022: CODA wins both PGA and the Oscar
2023: Everything Everywhere All at Once wins both PGA and the Oscar
2024: Oppenheimer wins both PGA and the Oscar