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Coders or carers: What will the jobs of the future be?
Innovation is happening in Australia – but it's no thanks to the federal government. What skills do we need to foster to make sure the future really is an exciting time to be alive?
Ever since Malcolm Turnbull's Ideas Boom flopped with voters in key marginal seats at the 2016 election, there's been a sense that innovation policy has fallen off the radar in Canberra.
Many in the tech community would argue that it's actually even worse than that, with the government actively taking steps that undermine the sector's progress.
For example, encryption legislation passed in the federal Parliament on the final sitting day of 2018 has been widely condemned by the industry, while a clampdown on research and development tax credits has also upset start-ups.
Are we creating the workforce we need for the future?
If you accept the premise that more jobs will come from the science, technology and engineering and mathematics (STEM) fields in the future, then Australia has a problem.
The proportion of Australians with post high-school qualifications in STEM fields actually fell over the past decade, a study released by Deloitte Access Economics found last year.
Meanwhile, at secondary school level, Australia's rankings in STEM subjects has been sliding, according to various measures.
And a recent survey by PricewaterhouseCoopers found that 75 per cent of Australia’s chief executives are concerned about the availability of key skills.
At the same time, the government has made it harder for companies to import talent with qualifications in these areas.
The 457 visa scheme for temporary skills shortages was abolished last year, with the highly skilled migrant intake falling from 130,000 to 70,000 a year.
However, the government did create a new open-ended scheme allowing tech companies generating more than $4 million in revenue to hire senior offshore talent on salaries above $180,000.
What about the robots?
Whichever way you look at it, humans are going to have to get used to working alongside "smart" machines as spectacular breakthroughs in artificial intelligence push the boundaries of what is possible.
A recent study by McKinsey & Co found that about 15 per cent of the global workforce, or about 400 million workers, could be displaced by automation in the period 2016–2030.
About half of all activities (not jobs) carried out by workers could technically be automated away by new technologies.
The upshot, according to McKinsey, is that around 3 per cent of the global workforce will need to change occupational categories by 2030.
Jobs made up of physical activities in highly structured environments, such as manual labour and factory work and jobs in data processing are most at risk.
But it will be much more difficult for jobs in management, and in unpredictable physical environments such as plumbing, to be automated away. Teachers and nurses should also experience increased demand.
How can we know what skills we'll need?
Learning to code might seem like a sensible idea now but advances in artificial intelligence, machine learning and quantum computing may also render some lower-level programming skills redundant.
With the average age in Australia and globally expected to shift significantly upwards in coming decades, jobs in areas such as human interaction and the "caring economy" may prove to be as important (and lucrative) as those in the innovation economy.
Israeli philosopher Yuval Noah Harari argues humans in the future will need skills in "mental flexibility" and "emotional balance" to flourish in such a rapidly changing environment.
Is business filling the innovation void?
Despite Canberra's apparent indifference to innovation there are still plenty of positive signs for the Australian tech sector and they are largely coming from private businesses.
Investment by venture capital funds into high-growth tech start-ups in Australia hit a record $1.25 billion last year.
Major superannuation funds such as HOSTPLUS and the Future Fund are increasingly willing to allocate small parts of their gigantic war chests to tech and innovation.
At the same time, Australia has started to produce a string of globally significant tech companies. Project management software company Atlassian is now valued at $30 billion; while ASX-listed companies including logistics software provider WiseTech, aerial imagery and location data provider Nearmap and machine learning business Appen have also risen to prominence.
Both of Atlassian's founders have become prominent advocates for changes to the way the government approaches innovation, education and climate change.
Scott Farquhar has been an advocate for changes to Australia's education policy while Mike Cannon-Brookes has become something bordering on a mainstream celebrity.
Cannon-Brookes started a movement last year, Fair Dinkum Power, designed to challenge the Coalition government's claims that renewable energy is driving up the cost of electricity.
He has declared, in these pages, that Australia can be a renewable energy superpower. He says Australia could move to 100 per cent renewable energy creating one of the "greatest economic opportunities for our country in terms of job creation and economic growth over the next 10 to 20 years".
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