‘Time has come’ to cut interest rates, Fed Chair Jerome Powell says

Wyoming: US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell on Friday (Saturday AEST) endorsed an imminent start to interest rate cuts, saying further cooling in the job market would be unwelcome and expressing confidence that inflation is within reach of the US central bank’s 2 per cent target.

“The time has come for policy to adjust,” Powell said in a highly anticipated speech to the Kansas City Fed’s annual economic conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming. “The direction of travel is clear, and the timing and pace of rate cuts will depend on incoming data, the evolving outlook, and the balance of risks.”

Jerome Powell, chairman of the US Federal Reserve, right, and Andrew Bailey, governor of the Bank of England.Credit: Bloomberg

Opening a new chapter for the central bank, Powell said his “confidence has grown that inflation is on a sustainable path back to 2 per cent,” after rising to about 7 per cent during the COVID-19 pandemic, and the upside risks have diminished.

Meanwhile, he said, a slowdown in the labor market is “unmistakable” and “the downside risks to employment have increased.”

And while slower hiring, rather than a more concerning rise in layoffs, has so far driven the rapid rise in the unemployment rate to 4.3 per cent, Powell was emphatic that the Fed would not countenance further erosion.

“We do not seek or welcome further cooling in labor market conditions,” Powell said. “We will do everything we can to support a strong labor market as we make further progress toward price stability.”

Powell said the time has come for the Federal Reserve to cut its key policy rate, affirming expectations that officials will begin lowering borrowing costs next month.Credit: Bloomberg

Analysts and financial markets had already widely expected the Fed to deliver its first rate cut at the September 17-18 policy meeting, a view that was cemented after a readout of the central bank’s July meeting said a “vast majority” of policymakers agreed the policy easing likely would begin next month.

Powell’s new emphasis on protecting the job market shifts the focus to the size of that first rate cut, which may now largely hinge on the September 6 release of the US government’s employment report for August.

With its policy rate currently in the 5.25-5.50 per cent range, the Fed has “ample room” to reduce borrowing costs to cushion the labor market, Powell said.

After his remarks, traders moved to price in a better than one-in-three chance that the Fed will start its easing cycle with a half-percentage-point rate cut, and are fully confident of at least one super-sized cut before the end of the year.

Markets are betting the Fed’s policy rate will be in the 3.00-3.25 per cent range by the end of 2025, more than 2 percentage points below where it is now.

US stocks jumped after the release of Powell’s remarks, with the benchmark S&P 500 nearing a record high. US Treasury yields dropped and the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies.

‘Soft landing’

Powell’s comments are as close as he is likely to come to declaring victory over the outbreak of inflation that rattled the economy at the start of the pandemic.

The fast rise in prices led the Fed to increase its benchmark policy rate from the near-zero level to the current range, which is the highest in a quarter of a century. It has been held there for more than a year even as the economy defied frequent predictions of recession, inflation fell, and economic growth continued - the makings of a textbook “soft landing,” with the endgame of rate cuts now set to begin.

“While the task is not complete, we have made a good deal of progress” toward restoring price stability, Powell said in his speech. The Fed defines price stability as 2 per cent inflation, as measured by the personal consumption expenditures price index. The index is currently running at an annual rate of 2.5 per cent.

“With an appropriate dialling back of policy restraint, there is good reason to think that the economy will get back to 2 per cent inflation while maintaining a strong labor market,” he said.

Powell spoke at the Jackson Lake Lodge in Wyoming’s Grand Teton National Park to a gathering of central bankers and economists that has become a global platform for officials to shape views of monetary policy and the economy.

Fed officials will provide updated economic projections at their meeting next month that will provide more detail on how they expect the benchmark policy rate to evolve from here.

Reuters

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