Guns, ammo and jails: How speculators made a quick profit on the ‘Trump trade’

How’s this? Shares in gun manufacturers and bullet makers bolted out of the barrel on the back of presidential candidate Donald Trump being shot at the weekend. Investing doesn’t get more perverse than that.

Trump’s hearing organ injuries aside, the former president and current Republican candidate has already demonstrated his favourable position on watering down gun laws – so an investment punt on Smith & Wesson (up 14 per cent), Sturm Ruger (up almost 6 per cent) and Ammo shares (up 15 per cent) was a no-brainer for speculators.

The most compelling “Trump trade” was to buy shares in his own company, Trump Media & Technology Group, which houses his Truth Social media platform.Credit: AP

Picking investment winners under a Trump regime has become the market’s latest sport.

Traders have had a field day over the past 48 hours. You can almost hear them screaming – buy prisons, sell solar, buy crypto, sell wind farms, jettison biofuel and buy ammo suppliers.

And, of course – give those fossil-fuel companies a shot of (capital) adrenalin.

Say hello to the equity market that has now placed its bets on a strong Trump electoral win.

Picking investment winners under a Trump regime has become the market’s latest sport.

The most compelling “Trump trade” was to buy shares in his company, Trump Media & Technology Group, which houses his Truth Social media platform. These shares gained 48 per cent after Trump’s shooting boosted his electoral prospects to what many now consider to be an ordained outcome. Trump is the largest shareholder, with a 58 per cent stake in the company, whose market capitalisation leapt to $11.5 billion this week.

And for some perspective: this company made a meagre $US4 million ($5.9 million) in revenue last year and tallied up $US58 million ($86 million) in losses.

Of course, Trump Media & Technology is not a stock that trades on traditional fundamentals. Its share price gyrates wildly on the political fortunes of the man himself. A conviction in the Stormy Daniels hush-money case precipitated a 15 per cent tumble six weeks ago.

But like any meme stock with some wind in its sails, the stock is moving at a clip, thanks to Trump’s refreshed image as a fist-pumping, bullet-dodging tough guy and would-be president.

(If only The Trump Organisation was listed!)

But the Trump trade doesn’t stop there. Listed prison companies were also beneficiaries, thanks to his promised crackdown on illegal immigrants – a move that would bolster demand for detention centres.

Lastly, Trump’s enhanced prospects of regaining his White House job lit a fire under crypto stocks. The man who once labelled crypto a scam has pivoted to become an evangelist for this risky currency. The price of Bitcoin rallied to its highest point in a month.

Strange as it might seem, the share movement in guns/ammunition stocks, prisons, Trump’s social media company and crypto companies appears reasonable compared with some of the Trump-win-inspired stock responses.

Take this report from Bloomberg, which said shares of a Chinese company whose local-language name sounds like “Trump Wins Big” soared on Monday.

The story said Wisesoft Co, a software maker whose Mandarin name “Chuan Da Zhi Sheng” implies victory for Donald Trump, rose by the maximum 10 per cent daily limit in Shenzhen.

But there’s more. The report goes on to say Wisesoft first made its name with outsized gains after Trump won the 2016 election, while fellow Chinese firm Yunnan Xiyi Industrial Co, or “Aunt Hillary”, tumbled 10 per cent. And Aucma Co, whose Mandarin name of “Ao Ke Ma” is similar to that of Barack Obama, surged in 2008 after Obama’s victory.

Putting aside some of the more extreme market responses to a new Trump presidency and accepting the tax and regulatory-lite approach he has already shown, there is a more sinister medium-term lens through which a triumphant Trump is being viewed.

Trump Media runs the social media platform Truth Social. Credit: AP

Sure, Trump’s ultra-capitalist-friendly politics and profligate spending could provide an initial boost to US equity markets, but the aftermath effects of rising inflation are considered by experts to be potentially damaging and profound.

Imposing additional tariffs on imports from China, for example, plays into the “Made in America” rhetoric, but it will be US consumers who pay the price.

Picking sentiment-based stock winners is a harmless enough sport. But be careful what you wish for.

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