Another approach? The Qatar decision scar has barely healed. Now it’s about to be reopened

A new application by Qatar Airways to increase flights to Australia will open a nasty wound for the Albanese government – a gash that bled so profusely last year that it damaged Transport Minister Catherine King and set the course for the early departure of then-Qantas boss Alan Joyce.

How can one forget last year’s essential-viewing Senate inquiry chaired by the Nationals’ Bridget McKenzie, which unflatteringly trawled the various and changing reasons (or non-reasons) put forward by King and her colleagues to reject Qatar’s application.

Qatar Airways is once again negotiating with Australia for additional services.

While King refused to appear and decried the inquiry as a political stunt, it was a particularly poor moment for the Labor government’s credibility and the optics that suggested the decision was taken to bolster Qantas’ profits.

So, what will happen the second time around?

On the sidelines of the International Air Transport Association meeting in Dubai this week, Qatar chief executive Badr Mohammed Al Meer confirmed that it had made a fresh request to double flights into Australia, which he said was progressing “in a positive way”.

While there is no reason to question Qatar’s assessment of the dialogue, it probably had the same experience at the start of the process last time when it was all going swimmingly until it wasn’t.

Qatar has a national-interest argument already playing out in its favour.

But this time around, Qatar has a lot more support in its corner.

Thanks to the inquiry, it has a conga line of aviation and competition economists who provided evidence that having more international flights into Australia would reduce airfares.

And then there were the tourist operators from Margaret River to the Whitsundays queueing to blame the government for undermining their businesses.

So Qatar has a national-interest argument already playing out in its favour.

And the cost-of-living crisis that featured last year as a reason for promoting additional competition for any number of services is still in full swing.

The government has used the cost of living as ammunition to attack the supermarket sector, so its bona fides as a crusader would suffer if it didn’t apply the same rigour to other industries, such as aviation.

Just as a reminder, in September last year when King was floundering to come up with solid reasons to block Qatar, she first noted the mistreatment of five Australian women who were invasively searched at the airport in Doha. She later wavered on this reason and amended her rationale to involve promoting Australian jobs, while a ministerial colleague suggested that looking after the financial wellbeing of Qantas was a factor.

This time around, if the government decides to reject Qatar’s application for additional rights, it will need a clear, concise and immovable reason.

And it had better not have Qantas’ fingerprints on it. The national carrier reportedly said last month that it had not yet been invited to have any input into the decision.

Last time around, Qantas made a submission arguing against allowing Qatar to provide additional flights, while Alan Joyce is said to have made his views known to King.

Virgin boss Jayne Hrdlicka told the inquiry that King had told her Joyce was “not happy” to hear of the Qatari bid and had requested a meeting with the minister.

If Qantas does make a submission this time around, it would surely argue against Qatar again (given it is in Qantas’ commercial interests to do so), but Qantas’ new chief executive and its under-renovation board may take a less aggressive approach.

The government’s problem is that the Qatar decision scar has barely healed, and it is set to be reopened.

If Qatar gets the green light this time, there will be questions as to what has changed in the past nine months that has prompted the government to alter its stance.

That will surely be a tough one to explain.

Read more:

• Federal Court finds strip-searched women can’t sue Qatar Airways
• Turkish Airlines to launch flights to Australia in March
• Who is Catherine King, the minister at the centre of the Qatar Airways saga?

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