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Commercial property heading for a peak, but no crash

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The sale of a major Sydney office tower on a record low 4.6 per cent capitalisation rate has reignited concerns about a commercial property bubble building, with the Reserve Bank further warning about the sustainability of current pricing in its Financial Stability Review and bank regulator Wayne Byres joining the chorus.

As the rate of yield compression slows, landlords and analysts argue the risk of a crash remains low with the wide spread between property yields and government bond rates combined with the prospect of very strong rental growth in Sydney and Melbourne providing a solid buffer to satisfy investors should bond rates start rising.

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Larry Schlesinger writes on real estate, specialising in commercial and residential property. Larry is based in our Melbourne newsroom. Connect with Larry on Twitter. Email Larry at larry.schlesinger@afr.com
Nick Lenaghan edits the property section, which covers all aspects, from residential real estate and housing and construction to commercial property – office, retail, industrial – and major ASX-listed developers and real estate investment trusts. Connect with Nick on Twitter. Email Nick at nlenaghan@afr.com
Su-Lin Tan reported on housing, commercial real estate and property finance. She also covered China and Asian business, trade and politics. Connect with Su-Lin on Twitter. Email Su-Lin at stan@afr.com.au

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/real-estate/commercial/investment/commercial-property-heading-for-a-peak-but-no-crash-20170501-gvw3nh