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What the charts say

Regina Meani

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Lion Nathan (LNN) Lion Nathan is a leading brewer, winemaker and marketer/distributor of alcoholic beverages in Australasian and international markets. It employs more than 1800 Australians and 1400 New Zealanders with its three main divisions: Australian Brewing, New Zealand brewing and wine and spirits. From 1991 until mid-2000 the share price set up a volatile and irregular base pattern that supported a strongly rising trend until March last year. At $9.90 the price reached a parallel of resistance and experienced diverging momentum. As a result, the price pulled back to support in the $8.00 to $8.20 area and began oscillating sideways with a barrier zone around $9.70, which allowed a spike to a new high at $9.99 in February this year. The movement outside the main sideways band proved unsustainable and the price settled back. The recent fall to the bottom of the range at $8.00 produced a double test of support in May and June. The area has held, with the short-term momentum turning more favourable. This suggests the oscillations may continue. The swings in price lend greater volatility, reminiscent of the base pattern. The main barrier to a return to the upward path lies at $10, and alternatively, a fall through $7.90 would create the risk of a fall towards $7.00 and possibly lower. White Energy (WEC) White Energy has the exclusive worldwide licence for patented White Coal Technology - an evolutionary process that speeds the maturation of lower-grade coals and is the first step in a cleaner coal solution. The upgrading technology removes coal moisture and improves the heat content and quality to higher energy levels characteristic of valuable bituminous coals. The upgraded coal burns more efficiently with lower carbon and pollutant emissions. It can be transported more efficiently and is physically and chemically stable, reducing the risk of spontaneous combustion. The share price has been rising consistently from mid-2005, pausing each year to consolidate its trend. In late 2005 and early 2006, the price paused within triangular phases before resuming the upswing. In mid-2007, momentum waned as the price approached the upper limit of its trend path, and a more serious sideways consolidation resulted with the price spiking down to test the trend line at $2.10 in March. The price reacted quickly to regain its previous consolidation range and to finalise the phase, rising through $3.25 to spur the price to $3.95, where it halted in June from a combination of target and taxed momentum. A pullback to the pattern has occurred, with the share price forming a triangular phase to consolidate and allowing price churning between $3.40 and $3.85. A rise through $3.95 would be required to confirm the next leg higher towards $4.80 and potentially into the $6.00 to $7.00 range. The risk while the triangle develops would be a breakdown of the pattern on a drop below $3.28. Prana Biotechnology (PBT) Prana Biotechnology is a pharmaceutical research and development company developing drugs for the treatment of age-related diseases and has developed a proprietary library of class-leading chemical compounds. This library has been combined with a drug development program to explore novel therapeutics in multiple disease indications. The scientific focus of the company is on neurological diseases, particularly Alzheimer's, Parkinson's and Huntington's diseases. A volatile period between 2000 and 2002 saw the price rise from 22¢ to peak at $2.78, with a top action finalised in November 2002 when the price fell through $1.45. Initially, the price plunged to 33.5¢ in mid-2003 before rebounding to $1.10 to $1.20 resistance, which remained a barrier through 2004. The price broke down again in 2005 with a free fall to 13¢ becoming the pivot in a base-forming process. The price spiked up to 80¢ in mid-2006, completing its first stage, but quickly lost momentum, slumping back to locate a turning point at 23¢ in December last year. Producing a higher turning point swung momentum to the positive, allowing a rise to 69.5¢ in February. However, volatility returned and the price has fallen back to a higher shelf of support at 38¢. The entire action from 2003 appears as a broadened base, with the price likely to experience more volatility ahead of completion, swinging between 38¢ and 55¢ with the main barrier to significantly higher prices at 70¢. The risk, until the phase completes, would be for a more serious pullback within the final stages, triggered on a drop below 36¢.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/what-the-charts-say-20080721-jkh9d