The Albanese government is facing the prospect of a budget blowout as almost $9 billion worth of savings earmarked from the National Disability Insurance Scheme are delayed or at risk.

The March budget factored in $19 billion of savings related to the NDIS over the next four financial years, $8.8 billion of which now look uncertain. The savings hinge on the government overhauling how participant budgets are set and the states striking a funding deal with their federal counterparts within months, both of which are unlikely to happen.