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Matt Qvortrup

I predicted Brexit. Here’s why the Voice is destined to lose.

Winning and losing constitutional referendums is quite simple: if you are going to change the rule book, both sides of the game have to agree.

Matt QvortrupReferendum expert

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“But you are just a political scientist!” The then British prime minister was not particularly impressed by my statistical model three months before the 2016 referendum on Brexit.

I had written an academic article that said, statistically speaking, “the government would lose the referendum by four points”.

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Matt Qvortrup is visiting Professor at the ANU College of Law. His book Referendums and Ethnic Conflict is published by Pennsylvania University Press.

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    Original URL: https://www.afr.com/politics/federal/i-predicted-brexit-here-s-why-the-voice-is-destined-to-lose-20230906-p5e2bu